Abstract: Neuropsychological problems are more common in hemodialysis (HD) patients than in healthy individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of long term HD on memory types of HD patients. To assess the different type of memory, we used memory parts of the Persian Papers and Pencil Cognitive assessment package (PCAP) and Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (ACE-R). Our study included 80 HD patients of whom 39 had less than six months of HD and 41 patients and another group which had a history of HD more than six months. The population had a mean age of 51.60 years old and 27.5% of them were female. The scores of patients who have been hemodialyzed for a long time (median time of HD was up to 4 years) had lower score in anterograde, explicit, visual, recall and recognition memory (5.44±1.07, 9.49±3.472, 22.805±6.6913, 5.59±10.435, 11.02±3.190 score) than the HD patients who underwent HD for a shorter term, where the median time was 3 to 5 months (P
Abstract: Among serious crimes, child homicide is a rather rare event. However, the killing of children stirs up a special type of emotion in society that pales other criminal acts. This study examines the relevancy of three possible community-level explanations for child homicide: social deprivation, female empowerment, and social isolation. The social deprivation hypothesis posits that child homicide results from lack of resources in communities. The female empowerment hypothesis argues that a higher female status translates into a higher level of capability to prevent child homicide. Finally, the social isolation hypothesis regards child homicide as a result of lack of social connectivity. Child homicide data, aggregated by US postal ZIP codes in California from 1990 to 1999, were analyzed with a negative binomial regression. The results of the negative binomial analysis demonstrate that social deprivation is the most salient and consistent predictor among all other factors in explaining child homicide victimization at the ZIP-code level. Both social isolation and female labor force participation are weak predictors of child homicide victimization across communities. Further, results from the negative binomial regression show that it is the communities with a higher, not lower, degree of female labor force participation that are associated with a higher count of child homicide. It is possible that poor communities with a higher level of female employment have a lesser capacity to provide the necessary care and protection for the children. Policies aiming at reducing social deprivation and strengthening female empowerment possess the potential to reduce child homicide in the community.
Abstract: Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in
agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient
way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records.
The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into
model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to
the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic
modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their
environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of
the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it
turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem.
An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical
methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the
parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a
new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations).
It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction
is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict
requirements about the dataset.
A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these
model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this
purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods
derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal
Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and
machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor,
Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression).
The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale
provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and
the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and
two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP),
mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the
crop prediction capacity.
The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random
Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction
error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach
(MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic
model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives.
The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses
suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest
for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is
to combine these two types of approaches.
Abstract: Crank shaft length, connecting rod length, crank angle, engine rpm, cylinder bore, mass of piston and compression ratio are the inputs that can control the performance of the slider crank mechanism and then its efficiency. Several combinations of these seven inputs are used and compared. The throughput engine torque predicted by the simulation is analyzed through two different regression models, with and without interaction terms, developed according to multi-linear regression using LU decomposition to solve system of algebraic equations. These models are validated. A regression model in seven inputs including their interaction terms lowered the polynomial degree from 3rd degree to 1st degree and suggested valid predictions and stable explanations.
Abstract: With recent trends in Big Data and advancements
in Information and Communication Technologies, the healthcare
industry is at the stage of its transition from clinician oriented to
technology oriented. Many people around the world die of cancer
because the diagnosis of disease was not done at an early stage.
Nowadays, the computational methods in the form of Machine
Learning (ML) are used to develop automated decision support
systems that can diagnose cancer with high confidence in a timely
manner. This paper aims to carry out the comparative evaluation
of a selected set of ML classifiers on two existing datasets: breast
cancer and cervical cancer. The ML classifiers compared in this study
are Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest
Neighbor (k-NN), Logistic Regression, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) and
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The evaluation is carried out based
on standard evaluation metrics Precision (P), Recall (R), F1-score and
Accuracy. The experimental results based on the evaluation metrics
show that ANN showed the highest-level accuracy (99.4%) when
tested with breast cancer dataset. On the other hand, when these
ML classifiers are tested with the cervical cancer dataset, Ensemble
(Bagged Tree) technique gave better accuracy (93.1%) in comparison
to other classifiers.
Abstract: The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.
Abstract: The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.
Abstract: The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.
Abstract: Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.
Abstract: By using linear regression methodology to analyze the data of daily precipitation from 1961-2012, this paper studied the variation tendency of precipitation in Chenzhou. The outcome showed: (1) The annual precipitation was decreasing for 52 years and the difference of precipitation variation tendency among four seasons was remarkable. The precipitation of spring and autumn showed more remarkable decrease than of summer; but the precipitation of winter significantly increased. (2) The annual precipitation frequency tended to lower, which was consistent with the tendency of yearly variation. The seasonal precipitation frequency was greatly different, namely, precipitation frequency in spring and autumn decreased, co-occurring with the phenomenon of mutation; but the winter precipitation frequency increased notably. (3) The precipitation intensity displayed a tendency of increase, including spring, autumn and winter; among them, winter had the most obvious tendency to increase, and autumn had the most yearly variation. Summer was the only season with a tendency of decreasing in precipitation intensity. (4) Annual extreme precipitation tended to reduce, spring, summer and autumn are all included; whereas, winter extreme precipitation tended to increase at the rate of 0.1d/10a. (5) The daily maximum precipitation intensity increased slightly and it varied greatly.
Abstract: Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.
Abstract: In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.
Abstract: To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.
Abstract: In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.
Abstract: This paper addresses the issues and technique for textile industry using data mining techniques. Data mining has been applied to the stitching of garments products that were obtained from a textile company. Data mining techniques were applied to the data obtained from the CHAID algorithm, CART algorithm, Regression Analysis and, Artificial Neural Networks. Classification technique based analyses were used while data mining and decision model about the production per person and variables affecting about production were found by this method. In the study, the results show that as the daily working time increases, the production per person also decreases. In addition, the relationship between total daily working and production per person shows a negative result and the production per person show the highest and negative relationship.
Abstract: Lake water quality monitoring in combination with the use of earth observation products constitutes a major component in many water quality monitoring programs. Landsat 8 images of Trichonis Lake (Greece) acquired on 30/10/2013 and 30/08/2014 were used in order to explore the possibility of Landsat 8 to estimate water quality parameters and particularly CDOM absorption at specific wavelengths, chlorophyll-a and nutrient concentrations in this oligotrophic freshwater body, characterized by inexistent quantitative, temporal and spatial variability. Water samples have been collected at 22 different stations, on late August of 2014 and the satellite image of the same date was used to statistically correlate the in-situ measurements with various combinations of Landsat 8 bands in order to develop algorithms that best describe those relationships and calculate accurately the aforementioned water quality components. Optimal models were applied to the image of late October of 2013 and the validation of the results was conducted through their comparison with the respective available in-situ data of 2013. Initial results indicated the limited ability of the Landsat 8 sensor to accurately estimate water quality components in an oligotrophic waterbody. As resulted by the validation process, ammonium concentrations were proved to be the most accurately estimated component (R = 0.7), followed by chl-a concentration (R = 0.5) and the CDOM absorption at 420 nm (R = 0.3). In-situ nitrate, nitrite, phosphate and total nitrogen concentrations of 2014 were measured as lower than the detection limit of the instrument used, hence no statistical elaboration was conducted. On the other hand, multiple linear regression among reflectance measures and total phosphorus concentrations resulted in low and statistical insignificant correlations. Our results were concurrent with other studies in international literature, indicating that estimations for eutrophic and mesotrophic lakes are more accurate than oligotrophic, owing to the lack of suspended particles that are detectable by satellite sensors. Nevertheless, although those predictive models, developed and applied to Trichonis oligotrophic lake are less accurate, may still be useful indicators of its water quality deterioration.
Abstract: In this article, the results of a series of carefully conducted laboratory test program were represented to determine the small strain shear modulus of sand mixed with a range of kaolinite including zero to 30%. This was experimentally achieved using a triaxial cell equipped with bender element. Results indicate that small shear modulus tends to increase, while clay content decreases and effective confining pressure increases. The exponent of stress in the power model regression analysis was not sensitive to the amount of clay content for all sand clay mixtures, while coefficient A was directly affected by change in clay content.
Abstract: In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R2 = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R2 = 0.78, P < 0.0001).
Abstract: Background: Boxing is one of the oldest combat sports where different anthropological and fitness ability parameters determine performance. It is characterized by short duration, high intensity bursts of activity. The purpose of this research was to determine anthropometric and physical fitness profile of male elite and non-elite boxers of Manipur and to compare the two groups. Materials and Methods: Nineteen subjects were selected as elite boxers and twenty-four were non-elite boxers of Manipur. A cross-sectional study was conducted on anthropometric measurements and physical fitness ability tests on 33 subjects (elite and non-elite boxers). Statistical analysis was done using descriptive statistics, t-test and logistic regression with the help of SPSS version 15 software. Results: Results showed elite boxers have significantly reduced neck girth and calf girth as compare to non-elite boxers. Elite boxers have significantly lower sub scapular skin fold (SSF) and supra iliac skin fold (SISF) than their counterparts. Higher stature, larger BTB and lower percent fat are associated with higher performance in boxing. Sit ups (SU), standing Broad Jump (SBJ), Plat taping (PT), Sit and reach (SAR) and Harvard Step Test (HST) are predicted as most contributing factors enhancing performance level among the physical fitness components. Elite boxers are found to have more functional strength (sit ups), higher explosive strength (SBJ), more agility (PT), cardio-vascular endurance and flexibility (SAR) than non-elite boxers. Conclusion: In conclusion, lower fat, higher lean body mass, larger bi-trochantric breadth, high explosive strength, agility and flexibility are significantly associated with higher performance and chance of becoming elite boxers.
Abstract: Daylight utilization is a key factor in achieving visual and thermal comfort, and energy savings in integrated building design. However, lack of measured data related to this topic has become a major challenge with the increasing need for integrating lighting concepts and simulations in the early stages of design procedures. The current paper deals with the values of daylight illuminance on horizontal and south facing vertical surfaces; the data are estimated using IESNA model and measured values of the horizontal and vertical illuminance, and a regression model with an acceptable linear correlation is obtained. The resultant illuminance frequency curves are useful for estimating daylight availability on south facing surfaces in Tehran. In addition, the relationship between indirect vertical illuminance and the corresponding global horizontal illuminance is analyzed. A simple parametric equation is proposed in order to predict the vertical illumination on a shaded south facing surface. The equation correlates the ratio between the vertical and horizontal illuminance to the solar altitude and is used with another relationship for prediction of the vertical illuminance. Both equations show good agreement, which allows for calculation of indirect vertical illuminance on a south facing surface at any time throughout the year.