Abstract: Smoothing or filtering of data is first preprocessing step
for noise suppression in many applications involving data analysis.
Moving average is the most popular method of smoothing the data,
generalization of this led to the development of Savitzky-Golay filter.
Many window smoothing methods were developed by convolving
the data with different window functions for different applications;
most widely used window functions are Gaussian or Kaiser. Function
approximation of the data by polynomial regression or Fourier
expansion or wavelet expansion also gives a smoothed data. Wavelets
also smooth the data to great extent by thresholding the wavelet
coefficients. Almost all smoothing methods destroys the peaks and
flatten them when the support of the window is increased. In certain
applications it is desirable to retain peaks while smoothing the data
as much as possible. In this paper we present a methodology called
as peak-wise smoothing that will smooth the data to any desired level
without losing the major peak features.
Abstract: In this paper, many techniques for blind identification of moving average (MA) process are presented. These methods utilize third- and fourth-order cumulants of the noisy observations of the system output. The system is driven by an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) non-Gaussian sequence that is not observed. Two nonlinear optimization algorithms, namely the Gradient Descent and the Gauss-Newton algorithms are exposed. An algorithm based on the joint-diagonalization of the fourth-order cumulant matrices (FOSI) is also considered, as well as an improved version of the classical C(q, 0, k) algorithm based on the choice of the Best 1-D Slice of fourth-order cumulants. To illustrate the effectiveness of our methods, various simulation examples are presented.
Abstract: Noise contamination in a magnetic resonance (MR)
image could occur during acquisition, storage, and transmission in
which effective filtering is required to avoid repeating the MR
procedure. In this paper, an iterative asymmetrical triangle fuzzy
filter with moving average center (ATMAVi filter) is used to reduce
different levels of salt and pepper noise in a brain MR image. Besides
visual inspection on filtered images, the mean squared error (MSE) is
used as an objective measurement. When compared with the median
filter, simulation results indicate that the ATMAVi filter is effective
especially for filtering a higher level noise (such as noise density =
0.45) using a smaller window size (such as 3x3) when operated
iteratively or using a larger window size (such as 5x5) when operated
non-iteratively.
Abstract: This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time
risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by
three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg
inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive
technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications
of these probability inequalities.
Abstract: These paper, we approximate the average run length
(ARL) for CUSUM chart when observation are an exponential first
order moving average sequence (EMA1). We used Gauss-Legendre
numerical scheme for integral equations (IE) method for approximate
ARL0 and ARL1, where ARL in control and out of control,
respectively. We compared the results from IE method and exact
solution such that the two methods perform good agreement.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
Abstract: In this paper, novel techniques in increasing the accuracy
and speed of convergence of a Feed forward Back propagation
Artificial Neural Network (FFBPNN) with polynomial activation
function reported in literature is presented. These technique was
subsequently used to determine the coefficients of Autoregressive
Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive (AR) system. The
results obtained by introducing sequential and batch method of weight
initialization, batch method of weight and coefficient update, adaptive
momentum and learning rate technique gives more accurate result
and significant reduction in convergence time when compared t the
traditional method of back propagation algorithm, thereby making
FFBPNN an appropriate technique for online ARMA coefficient
determination.
Abstract: Emerging Bio-engineering fields such as Brain
Computer Interfaces, neuroprothesis devices and modeling and
simulation of neural networks have led to increased research activity
in algorithms for the detection, isolation and classification of Action
Potentials (AP) from noisy data trains. Current techniques in the field
of 'unsupervised no-prior knowledge' biosignal processing include
energy operators, wavelet detection and adaptive thresholding. These
tend to bias towards larger AP waveforms, AP may be missed due to
deviations in spike shape and frequency and correlated noise
spectrums can cause false detection. Also, such algorithms tend to
suffer from large computational expense.
A new signal detection technique based upon the ideas of phasespace
diagrams and trajectories is proposed based upon the use of a
delayed copy of the AP to highlight discontinuities relative to
background noise. This idea has been used to create algorithms that
are computationally inexpensive and address the above problems.
Distinct AP have been picked out and manually classified from
real physiological data recorded from a cockroach. To facilitate
testing of the new technique, an Auto Regressive Moving Average
(ARMA) noise model has been constructed bases upon background
noise of the recordings. Along with the AP classification means this
model enables generation of realistic neuronal data sets at arbitrary
signal to noise ratio (SNR).
Abstract: This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.
Abstract: Autoregressive Moving average (ARMA) is a parametric based method of signal representation. It is suitable for problems in which the signal can be modeled by explicit known source functions with a few adjustable parameters. Various methods have been suggested for the coefficients determination among which are Prony, Pade, Autocorrelation, Covariance and most recently, the use of Artificial Neural Network technique. In this paper, the method of using Artificial Neural network (ANN) technique is compared with some known and widely acceptable techniques. The comparisons is entirely based on the value of the coefficients obtained. Result obtained shows that the use of ANN also gives accurate in computing the coefficients of an ARMA system.
Abstract: This paper is motivated by the aspect of uncertainty in
financial decision making, and how artificial intelligence and soft
computing, with its uncertainty reducing aspects can be used for
algorithmic trading applications that trade in high frequency.
This paper presents an optimized high frequency trading system that
has been combined with various moving averages to produce a hybrid
system that outperforms trading systems that rely solely on moving
averages. The paper optimizes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference
system that takes both the price and its moving average as input,
learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of
intraday data, dynamically switches between the best performing
moving averages, and performs decision making of when to buy or
sell a certain currency in high frequency.
Abstract: The main goal of this paper is to study Statistical Process Control (SPC) with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart when observations are serially-correlated. The characteristic of control chart is Average Run Length (ARL) which is the average number of samples taken before an action signal is given. Ideally, an acceptable ARL of in-control process should be enough large, so-called (ARL0). Otherwise it should be small when the process is out-of-control, so-called Average of Delay Time (ARL1) or a mean of true alarm. We find explicit formulas of ARL for EWMA control chart for Seasonal Autoregressive and Moving Average processes (SARMA) with Exponential white noise. The results of ARL obtained from explicit formula and Integral equation are in good agreement. In particular, this formulas for evaluating (ARL0) and (ARL1) be able to get a set of optimal parameters which depend on smoothing parameter (λ) and width of control limit (H) for designing EWMA chart with minimum of (ARL1).