Abstract: The combination of world population and the third industrial revolution led to high demand for fuels. On the other hand, the decrease of global fossil 8fuels deposits and the environmental air pollution caused by these fuels has compounded the challenges the world faces due to its need for energy. Therefore, new forms of environmentally friendly and renewable fuels such as biodiesel are needed. The primary analytical techniques for methanolysis yield monitoring have been chromatography and spectroscopy, these methods have been proven reliable but are more demanding, costly and do not provide real-time monitoring. In this work, the in situ monitoring of biodiesel from sunflower oil using FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) has been studied; the study was performed using EasyMax Mettler Toledo reactor equipped with a DiComp (Diamond) probe. The quantitative monitoring of methanolysis was performed by building a quantitative model with multivariate calibration using iC Quant module from iC IR 7.0 software. 15 samples of known concentrations were used for the modelling which were taken in duplicate for model calibration and cross-validation, data were pre-processed using mean centering and variance scale, spectrum math square root and solvent subtraction. These pre-processing methods improved the performance indexes from 7.98 to 0.0096, 11.2 to 3.41, 6.32 to 2.72, 0.9416 to 0.9999, RMSEC, RMSECV, RMSEP and R2Cum, respectively. The R2 value of 1 (training), 0.9918 (test), 0.9946 (cross-validation) indicated the fitness of the model built. The model was tested against univariate model; small discrepancies were observed at low concentration due to unmodelled intermediates but were quite close at concentrations above 18%. The software eliminated the complexity of the Partial Least Square (PLS) chemometrics. It was concluded that the model obtained could be used to monitor methanol of sunflower oil at industrial and lab scale.
Abstract: The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.
Abstract: In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.
Abstract: This paper will explore integration model between GIS–SCADA system and enclosure quantification model to approach the impact of failure-safe event. There are real demands to identify spatial objects and improve control system performance. Nevertheless, the employed methodology is predicting electro-mechanic operations and corresponding time to environmental incident variations. Open processing, as object systems technology, is presented for integration enclosure database with minimal memory size and computation time via connectivity drivers such as ODBC:JDBC during main stages of GIS–SCADA connection. The function of Geographic Information System is manipulating power distribution in contrast to developing issues. In other ward, GIS-SCADA systems integration will require numerical objects of process to enable system model calibration and estimation demands, determine of past events for analysis and prediction of emergency situations for response training.
Abstract: Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to
predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments.
However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce
gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems.
Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of
the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are
available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and
hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly
due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in
the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a
framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was
developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was
developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration
parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of
concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of
parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was
performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is
a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference
when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to
compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was
used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For
comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments
using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used.
The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN
result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior
predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior
predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD),
root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found
reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using
ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior
distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated
uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE
URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the
analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework
performs well for automatic calibration.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River
Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River
Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the
Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10-
pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak
Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the
water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping,
even though included water from the natural river and released flow
from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the
performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the
Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was
applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in
the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed
weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013.
Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to
simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of
the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing
conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the
main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to
observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3
proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge
water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011.
Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase
of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.
Abstract: Modern managements of water distribution system
(WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict
the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system
environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve
system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former
researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is
difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for
long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed
which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water
quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial
basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for
the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality
simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction
coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases
study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and
deserve to generalize in the future.
Abstract: The hydro-mechanical model for unsaturated soils has
been presented based on the effective stress principle taking into
account effects of drying-wetting process. The elasto-plastic
constitutive equations for stress-strain relations of the soil skeleton
have been established. A plasticity model is modified from modified
Cam-Clay model. The hardening rule has been established by
considering the isotropic consolidation paths. The effect of dryingwetting
process is introduced through the ¤ç parameter. All model
coefficients are identified in terms of measurable parameters. The
simulations from the proposed model are compared with the
experimental results. The model calibration was performed to extract
the model parameter from the experimental results. Good agreement
between the results predicted using proposed model and the
experimental results was obtained.
Abstract: In the planning point of view, it is essential to have
mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation
systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as
against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and
socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to
recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models,
for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya.
Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been
formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in
Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide
revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The
model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work,
social and recreational). The variables of the model have been
predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for
model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors
in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About
two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the
remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is
the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s
mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was
successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the
overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation.
The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive
to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of
modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various
travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to
planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and
determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for
intercity travel.
Abstract: Sensors possess several properties of physical
measures. Whether devices that convert a sensed signal into an
electrical signal, chemical sensors and biosensors, thus all these
sensors can be considered as an interface between the physical and
electrical equipment. The problem is the analysis of the multitudes of
saved settings as input variables. However, they do not all have the
same level of influence on the outputs. In order to identify the most
sensitive parameters, those that can guide users in gathering
information on the ground and in the process of model calibration
and sensitivity analysis for the effect of each change made.
Mathematical models used for processing become very complex.
In this paper a fuzzy rule-based system is proposed as a solution
for this problem. The system collects the available signals
information from sensors. Moreover, the system allows the study of
the influence of the various factors that take part in the decision
system. Since its inception fuzzy set theory has been regarded as a
formalism suitable to deal with the imprecision intrinsic to many
problems. At the same time, fuzzy sets allow to use symbolic models.
In this study an example was applied for resolving variety of
physiological parameters that define human health state. The
application system was done for medical diagnosis help. The inputs
are the signals expressed the cardiovascular system parameters, blood
pressure, Respiratory system paramsystem was done, it will be able
to predict the state of patient according any input values.