Abstract: The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.
Abstract: In an access-control situation, the role of a user determines whether a data request is appropriate. This paper combines vetted web mining and logic modeling to build a lightweight system for determining the role of a health care provider based only on their prior authorized requests. The model identifies provider roles with 100% recall from very little data. This shows the value of vetted web mining in AI systems, and suggests the impact of the ICD classification on medical practice.
Abstract: This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.
Abstract: Laser Forming process as a non-contact thermal forming process is widely used to forming and bending of metallic and non-metallic sheets. In this process, according to laser irradiation along a specific path, sheet is bent. One of the most important output parameters in laser forming is bending angle that depends on process parameters such as physical and mechanical properties of materials, laser power, laser travel speed and the number of scan passes. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic System were used to predict of bending angle in laser forming process. Inputs to these models were laser travel speed and laser power. The comparison between artificial neural network and fuzzy logic models with experimental results has been shown both of these models have high ability to prediction of bending angles with minimum errors.
Abstract: Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to
predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments.
However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce
gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems.
Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of
the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are
available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and
hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly
due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in
the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a
framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was
developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was
developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration
parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of
concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of
parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was
performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is
a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference
when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to
compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was
used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For
comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments
using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used.
The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN
result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior
predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior
predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD),
root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found
reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using
ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior
distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated
uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE
URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the
analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework
performs well for automatic calibration.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Mae Sot
Watershed where located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper
Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot
Municipality is the largest urban area in Tak Province and situated in
the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood
problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been
reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recent years. Its
catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall
data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached
by most severely flood events in 2013 as the worst studied case for
all those communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems
are also faced in this watershed, such shortage water supply for
domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including a
deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research
aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the
participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to
conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean
of the data collection and illustration of the appropriated application
of some short period rainfall forecasting model as they aim for better
flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model
system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to
apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV)
program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in a
short period of 7-10 days in advance during rainy season instead of
real time record. The IDV product can be present in an advance
period of rainfall with time step of 3-6 hours was introduced to the
communities. The result can be used as input data to the hydrologic
modeling system model (HEC-HMS) for synthesizing flood
hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors
applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood
flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown
of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as the water surface level at
every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and
RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow
data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the
observed data at the dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge
to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and
the result found satisfying. The product of rainfall from IDV was fair
while compared with observed data. However, it is an appropriate
tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph
and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and
management.
Abstract: Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan
in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce
demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also
reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for
compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to
model some of the human activities in many areas of civil
engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model
experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the
present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC
containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of
cement has been developed by using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS).
For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental
data were gathered from the literature and used for training and
testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models
are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder
content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content,
superplasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results
in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting
the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered
range.
Abstract: Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns
with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes.
Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become
increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty
related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed
changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an
increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although
the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general
picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and
frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary
characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate
change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic
downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models
(RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric
physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields
as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture
the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a
basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical
relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called
predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands.
The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical
downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological
variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then
served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to
obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other
hydrological variables of interest.
Abstract: In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.
Abstract: Australia is a country of some 7,700 million square kilometers with a population of about 22.6 million. At present water security is a major challenge for Australia. In some areas the use of water resources is approaching and in some parts it is exceeding the limits of sustainability. A focal point of proposed national water conservation programs is the recycling of both urban stormwater and treated wastewater. But till now it is not widely practiced in Australia, and particularly stormwater is neglected. In Australia, only 4% of stormwater and rainwater is recycled, whereas less than 1% of reclaimed wastewater is reused within urban areas. Therefore, accurately monitoring, assessing and predicting the availability, quality and use of this precious resource are required for better management. As stormwater is usually of better quality than untreated sewage or industrial discharge, it has better public acceptance for recycling and reuse, particularly for non-potable use such as irrigation, watering lawns, gardens, etc. Existing stormwater recycling practice is far behind of research and no robust technologies developed for this purpose. Therefore, there is a clear need for using modern technologies for assessing feasibility of stormwater harvesting and reuse. Numerical modeling has, in recent times, become a popular tool for doing this job. It includes complex hydrological and hydraulic processes of the study area. The hydrologic model computes stormwater quantity to design the system components, and the hydraulic model helps to route the flow through stormwater infrastructures. Nowadays water quality module is incorporated with these models. Integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) with these models provides extra advantage of managing spatial information. However for the overall management of a stormwater harvesting project, Decision Support System (DSS) plays an important role incorporating database with model and GIS for the proper management of temporal information. Additionally DSS includes evaluation tools and Graphical user interface. This research aims to critically review and discuss all the aspects of stormwater harvesting and reuse such as available guidelines of stormwater harvesting and reuse, public acceptance of water reuse, the scopes and recommendation for future studies. In addition to these, this paper identifies, understand and address the importance of modern technologies capable of proper management of stormwater harvesting and reuse.
Abstract: The Korean Government has applied the preliminary feasibility study to new government R&D program plans as a part of an evaluation system for R&D programs. The preliminary feasibility study for the R&D program is composed of 3 major criteria such as technological, policy and economic analysis. The program logic model approach is used as a part of the technological analysis in the preliminary feasibility study. We has developed and improved the R&D program logic model. The logic model is a very useful tool for evaluating R&D program plans. Using a logic model, we can generally identify important factors of the R&D program plan, analyze its logic flow and find the disconnection or jump in the logic flow among components of the logic model.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River
Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River
Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the
Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10-
pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak
Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the
water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping,
even though included water from the natural river and released flow
from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the
performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the
Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was
applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in
the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed
weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013.
Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to
simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of
the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing
conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the
main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to
observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3
proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge
water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011.
Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase
of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.
Abstract: A logic model for analyzing complex systems- stability
is very useful to many areas of sciences. In the real world, we are
enlightened from some natural phenomena such as “biosphere", “food
chain", “ecological balance" etc. By research and practice, and taking
advantage of the orthogonality and symmetry defined by the theory of
multilateral matrices, we put forward a logic analysis model of
stability of complex systems with three relations, and prove it by
means of mathematics. This logic model is usually successful in
analyzing stability of a complex system. The structure of the logic
model is not only clear and simple, but also can be easily used to
research and solve many stability problems of complex systems. As an
application, some examples are given.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Pua Watershed whereas located in the Upper Nan River Basin in Nan province, Thailand. Nan River basin originated in Nan province that comprises of many tributary streams to produce as inflow to the Sirikit dam provided huge reservoir with the storage capacity of 9510 million cubic meters. The common problems of most watersheds were found i.e. shortage water supply for consumption and agriculture utilizations, deteriorate of water quality, flood and landslide including debris flow, and unstable of riverbank. The Pua Watershed is one of several small river basins that flow through the Nan River Basin. The watershed includes 404 km2 representing the Pua District, the Upper Nan Basin, or the whole Nan River Basin, of 61.5%, 18.2% or 1.2% respectively. The Pua River is a main stream producing all year streamflow supplying the Pua District and an inflow to the Upper Nan Basin. Its length approximately 56.3 kilometers with an average slope of the channel by 1.9% measured. A diversion weir namely Pua weir bound the plain and mountainous areas with a very steep slope of the riverbed to 2.9% and drainage area of 149 km2 as upstream watershed while a mild slope of the riverbed to 0.2% found in a river reach of 20.3 km downstream of this weir, which considered as a gauged basin. However, the major branch streams of the Pua River are ungauged catchments namely: Nam Kwang and Nam Koon with the drainage area of 86 and 35 km2 respectively. These upstream watersheds produce runoff through the 3-streams downstream of Pua weir, Jao weir, and Kang weir, with an averaged annual runoff of 578 million cubic meters. They were analyzed using both statistical data at Pua weir and simulated data resulted from the hydrologic modeling system (HEC–HMS) which applied for the remaining ungauged basins. Since the Kwang and Koon catchments were limited with lack of hydrological data included streamflow and rainfall. Therefore, the mathematical modeling: HEC-HMS with the Snyder-s hydrograph synthesized and transposed methods were applied for those areas using calibrated hydrological parameters from the upstream of Pua weir with continuously daily recorded of streamflow and rainfall data during 2008-2011. The results showed that the simulated daily streamflow and sum up as annual runoff in 2008, 2010, and 2011 were fitted with observed annual runoff at Pua weir using the simple linear regression with the satisfied correlation R2 of 0.64, 062, and 0.59, respectively. The sensitivity of simulation results were come from difficulty using calibrated parameters i.e. lag-time, coefficient of peak flow, initial losses, uniform loss rates, and missing some daily observed data. These calibrated parameters were used to apply for the other 2-ungauged catchments and downstream catchments simulated.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Lower Namkam
Irrigation Project situated in the Namkam River Basin in Thailand.
Degradation of groundwater quality in some areas is caused by saline
soil spots beneath ground surface. However, the tail regulated gate
structure on the Namkam River, a lateral stream of the Mekong
River. It is aimed for maintaining water level in the river at +137.5 to
+138.5 m (MSL) and flow to the irrigation canals based on a gravity
system since July 2009. It might leach some saline soil spots from
underground to soil surface if lack of understanding of the
conjunctive surface water and groundwater behaviors. This research
has been conducted by continuously the observing of both shallow
and deep groundwater level and quality from existing observation
wells. The simulation of surface water was carried out using a
hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) to compute the ungauged
side flow catchments as the lateral flows for the river system model
(HEC-RAS). The constant water levels in the upstream of the
operated gate caused a slight rising up of shallow groundwater level
when compared to the water table. However, the groundwater levels
in the confined aquifers remained less impacted than in the shallow
aquifers but groundwater levels in late of wet season in some wells
were higher than the phreatic surface. This causes salinization of the
groundwater at the soil surface and might affect some crops. This
research aims for the balance of water stage in the river and efficient
groundwater utilization in this area.
Abstract: Nowadays, the demand for high product quality
focuses extensive attention to the quality of machined surface. The
(CNC) milling machine facilities provides a wide variety of
parameters set-up, making the machining process on the glass
excellent in manufacturing complicated special products compared to
other machining processes. However, the application of grinding
process on the CNC milling machine could be an ideal solution to
improve the product quality, but adopting the right machining
parameters is required. In glass milling operation, several machining
parameters are considered to be significant in affecting surface
roughness. These parameters include the lubrication pressure, spindle
speed, feed rate and depth of cut. In this research work, a fuzzy logic
model is offered to predict the surface roughness of a machined
surface in glass milling operation using CBN grinding tool. Four
membership functions are allocated to be connected with each input
of the model. The predicted results achieved via fuzzy logic model
are compared to the experimental result. The result demonstrated
settlement between the fuzzy model and experimental results with the
93.103% accuracy.
Abstract: The paper presents the potential of fuzzy logic (FL-I)
and neural network techniques (ANN-I) for predicting the
compressive strength, for SCC mixtures. Six input parameters that is
contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash, superplasticizer
percentage and water-to-binder ratio and an output parameter i.e. 28-
day compressive strength for ANN-I and FL-I are used for modeling.
The fuzzy logic model showed better performance than neural
network model.
Abstract: Amount of dissolve oxygen in a river has a great direct affect on aquatic macroinvertebrates and this would influence on the region ecosystem indirectly. In this paper it is tried to predict dissolved oxygen in rivers by employing an easy Fuzzy Logic Modeling, Wang Mendel method. This model just uses previous records to estimate upcoming values. For this purpose daily and hourly records of eight stations in Au Sable watershed in Michigan, United States are employed for 12 years and 50 days period respectively. Calculations indicate that for long period prediction it is better to increase input intervals. But for filling missed data it is advisable to decrease the interval. Increasing partitioning of input and output features influence a little on accuracy but make the model too time consuming. Increment in number of input data also act like number of partitioning. Large amount of train data does not modify accuracy essentially, so, an optimum training length should be selected.
Abstract: Validation of an automation system is an important issue. The goal is to check if the system under investigation, modeled by a Petri net, never enters the undesired states. Usually, tools dedicated to Petri nets such as DESIGN/CPN are used to make reachability analysis. The biggest problem with this approach is that it is impossible to generate the full occurence graph of the system because it is too large. In this paper, we show how computational methods such as temporal logic model checking and Groebner bases can be used to verify the correctness of the design of an automation system. We report our experimental results with two automation systems: the Automated Guided Vehicle (AGV) system and the traffic light system. Validation of these two systems ranged from 10 to 30 seconds on a PC depending on the optimizing parameters.
Abstract: Component handling system is one of the important sub systems of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) used for fuel handling. Core handling system is again a sub system of component handling system. Core handling system consists of in-vessel and ex-vessel subassembly handling. In-vessel core handling involves transfer arm, large rotatable plug and small rotatable plug operations. Modeling and simulation of in-vessel core handling is a part of development of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor Operator Training Simulator. This paper deals with simulation and modeling of operations of transfer arm, large rotatable plug and small rotatable plug needed for in-vessel core handling. Process modeling was developed in house using platform independent Cµ code with OpenGL (Open Graphics Library). The control logic models and virtual panel were modeled using simulation tool.