Abstract: Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.
Abstract: This research aims to analyze the regenerative burner and the recuperative burner for the different reheating furnaces in the steel industry. The warm air temperatures of the burners are determined to suit with the sizes of the reheating furnaces by considering the air temperature, the fuel cost and the investment cost. The calculations of the payback period and the net present value are studied to compare the burners for the different reheating furnaces. The energy balance is utilized to calculate and compare the energy used in the different sizes of reheating furnaces for each burner. It is found that the warm air temperature is different if the sizes of reheating furnaces are varied. Based on the considerations of the net present value and the payback period, the regenerative burner is suitable for all plants at the same life of the burner. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of all factors has been discussed in this research.
Abstract: The Niger Delta Region of Nigeria is home to about
20 million people and 40 different ethnic groups. The region has an
area of seventy thousand square kilometers (70,000 KM2) of
wetlands, formed primarily by sediments deposition and makes up
7.5 percent of Nigeria's total landmass. The notable ecological zones
in this region includes: coastal barrier islands; mangrove swamp
forests; fresh water swamps; and lowland rainforests. This incredibly
naturally-endowed ecosystem region, which contains one of the
highest concentrations of biodiversity on the planet, in addition to
supporting abundant flora and fauna, is threatened by the inhuman act
known as gas flaring. Gas flaring is the combustion of natural gas
that is associated with crude oil when it is pumped up from the
ground. In petroleum-producing areas such as the Niger Delta region
of Nigeria where insufficient investment was made in infrastructure
to utilize natural gas, flaring is employed to dispose of this associated
gas. This practice has impoverished the communities where it is
practiced, with attendant environmental, economic and health
challenges. This paper discusses the adverse environmental and
health implication associated with the practice, the role of
Government, Policy makers, Oil companies and the Local
communities aimed at bring this inhuman practice to a prompt end.
Abstract: Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially
suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold
passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its
price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors
can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to
predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of
investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the
important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize
the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive
model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but
also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of
gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar
exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate,
whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves,
misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.
Abstract: This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).
Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of corporate income
tax (CIT) incentives in the Western Balkan countries: Slovenia,
Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania. Western
Balkan countries, as other transition and developing countries, use
large number of the corporate income tax incentives (CIT) to attract
foreign investments and to stimulate economic activity. The main
goal of this paper is to investigate how often these countries use CIT
incentives and provide review of existing tax incentives in Western
Balkan countries. Paper will focus on reduced CIT rates, tax
holidays, and other investment incentives which imply incentives
like accelerated depreciation, tax allowances and tax credits.
Abstract: The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.
Abstract: This paper proposes the numerical simulation of the
investment casting of gold jewelry. It aims to study the behavior of
fluid flow during mould filling and solidification and to optimize the
process parameters, which lead to predict and control casting defects
such as gas porosity and shrinkage porosity. A finite difference
method, computer simulation software FLOW-3D was used to
simulate the jewelry casting process. The simplified model was
designed for both numerical simulation and real casting production.
A set of sensor acquisitions were allocated on the different positions
of the wax tree of the model to detect filling times, while a set of
thermocouples were allocated to detect the temperature during
casting and cooling. Those detected data were applied to validate the
results of the numerical simulation to the results of the real casting.
The resulting comparisons signify that the numerical simulation can
be used as an effective tool in investment-casting-process
optimization and casting-defect prediction.
Abstract: According as the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) Industry projects have grown more complex and larger, the number of utilization of BIM for 3D design and simulation is increasing significantly. Therefore, typical applications of BIM such as clash detection and alternative measures based on 3-dimenstional planning are expanded to process management, cost and quantity management, structural analysis, check for regulation, and various domains for virtual design and construction. Presently, commercial BIM software is operated on single-user environment, so initial cost is so high and the investment may be wasted frequently. Cloud computing that is a next-generation internet technology enables simple internet devices (such as PC, Tablet, Smart phone etc) to use services and resources of BIM software. In this paper, we suggested developing method of the BIM software based on cloud computing environment in order to expand utilization of BIM and reduce cost of BIM software. First, for the benchmarking, we surveyed successful case of BIM and cloud computing. And we analyzed needs and opportunities of BIM and cloud computing in AEC Industry. Finally, we suggested main functions of BIM software based on cloud computing environment and developed a simple prototype of cloud computing BIM software for basic BIM model viewing.
Abstract: In this article, by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS
technique we propose a new method for project selection problem.
After reviewing four common methods of comparing alternatives
investment (net present value, rate of return, benefit cost analysis
and payback period) we use them as criteria in AHP tree. In this
methodology by utilizing improved Analytical Hierarchy Process
by Fuzzy set theory, first we try to calculate weight of each
criterion. Then by implementing TOPSIS algorithm, assessment of
projects has been done. Obtained results have been tested in a
numerical example.
Abstract: Selection of a project among a set of possible
alternatives is a difficult task that the decision maker (DM) has to
face. In this paper, by using a fuzzy TOPSIS technique we propose a
new method for a project selection problem. After reviewing four
common methods of comparing investment alternatives (net present
value, rate of return, benefit cost analysis and payback period) we
use them as criteria in a TOPSIS technique. First we calculate the
weight of each criterion by a pairwise comparison and then we utilize
the improved TOPSIS assessment for the project selection.