Abstract: Effective evaluation of software development effort is an important issue during project plan. This study provides a model to predict development effort based on the software size estimated with function points. We generalize the average amount of effort spent on each phase of the development, and give the estimates for the effort used in software building, testing, and implementation. Finally, this paper finds a strong correlation between software defects and software size. As the size of software constantly increases, the quality remains to be a matter which requires major concern.
Abstract: Analytical procedure was carried out in this paper to
calculate the ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete corbels
strengthened or repaired externally with CFRP sheets. Strut and tie
method and shear friction method proposed earlier for analyzing
reinforced concrete corbels were modified to incorporate the effect of
external CFRP sheets bonded to the corbel. The points of weakness
of any method that lead to an inaccuracy, especially when
overestimating test results were checked and discussed. Comparison
of prediction with the test data indicates that the ratio of test /
calculated ultimate load is 0.82 and 1.17 using strut and tie method
and shear friction method, respectively. If the limits of maximum
shear stress is followed, the calculated ultimate load capacity using
shear friction method was found to underestimates test data
considerably.
Abstract: In this paper the problem of estimating the time delay
between two spatially separated noisy sinusoidal signals by system
identification modeling is addressed. The system is assumed to be
perturbed by both input and output additive white Gaussian noise. The
presence of input noise introduces bias in the time delay estimates.
Normally the solution requires a priori knowledge of the input-output
noise variance ratio. We utilize the cascade of a self-tuned filter with
the time delay estimator, thus making the delay estimates robust to
input noise. Simulation results are presented to confirm the superiority
of the proposed approach at low input signal-to-noise ratios.
Abstract: We present a novel scheme to recognize isolated speech
signals using certain statistical parameters derived from those signals.
The determination of the statistical estimates is based on extracted
signal information rather than the original signal information in
order to reduce the computational complexity. Subtle details of
these estimates, after extracting the speech signal from ambience
noise, are first exploited to segregate the polysyllabic words from
the monosyllabic ones. Precise recognition of each distinct word is
then carried out by analyzing the histogram, obtained from these
information.
Abstract: Loop detectors report traffic characteristics in real
time. They are at the core of traffic control process. Intuitively,
one would expect that as density of detection increases, so would
the quality of estimates derived from detector data. However, as
detector deployment increases, the associated operating and
maintenance cost increases. Thus, traffic agencies often need to
decide where to add new detectors and which detectors should
continue receiving maintenance, given their resource constraints.
This paper evaluates the effect of detector spacing on freeway
travel time estimation. A freeway section (Interstate-15) in Salt
Lake City metropolitan region is examined. The research reveals
that travel time accuracy does not necessarily deteriorate with
increased detector spacing. Rather, the actual location of detectors
has far greater influence on the quality of travel time estimates.
The study presents an innovative computational approach that
delivers optimal detector locations through a process that relies on
Genetic Algorithm formulation.
Abstract: This paper estimates the economic values of
household preference for enhanced solid waste disposal services in
Malaysia. The contingent valuation (CV) method estimates an
average additional monthly willingness-to-pay (WTP) in solid waste
management charges of Ôé¼0.77 to 0.80 for improved waste disposal
services quality. The finding of a slightly higher WTP from the
generic CV question than that of label-specific, further reveals a
higher WTP for sanitary landfill, at Ôé¼0.90, than incineration, at Ôé¼0.63.
This suggests that sanitary landfill is a more preferred alternative.
The logistic regression estimation procedure reveals that household-s
concern of where their rubbish is disposed, age, ownership of house,
household income and format of CV question are significant factors
in influencing WTP.
Abstract: In this paper we compare the response of linear and
nonlinear neural network-based prediction schemes in prediction of
received Signal-to-Interference Power Ratio (SIR) in Direct
Sequence Code Division Multiple Access (DS/CDMA) systems. The
nonlinear predictor is Multilayer Perceptron MLP and the linear
predictor is an Adaptive Linear (Adaline) predictor. We solve the
problem of complexity by using the Minimum Mean Squared Error
(MMSE) principle to select the optimal predictors. The optimized
Adaline predictor is compared to optimized MLP by employing
noisy Rayleigh fading signals with 1.8 GHZ carrier frequency in an
urban environment. The results show that the Adaline predictor can
estimates SIR with the same error as MLP when the user has the
velocity of 5 km/h and 60 km/h but by increasing the velocity up-to
120 km/h the mean squared error of MLP is two times more than
Adaline predictor. This makes the Adaline predictor (with lower
complexity) more suitable than MLP for closed-loop power control
where efficient and accurate identification of the time-varying
inverse dynamics of the multi path fading channel is required.
Abstract: In the recent works related with mixture discriminant
analysis (MDA), expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is
used to estimate parameters of Gaussian mixtures. But, initial values
of EM algorithm affect the final parameters- estimates. Also, when
EM algorithm is applied two times, for the same data set, it can be
give different results for the estimate of parameters and this affect the
classification accuracy of MDA. Forthcoming this problem, we use
Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) algorithm to estimate
parameters of Gaussians mixtures in MDA that SOMN is more robust
when random the initial values of the parameters are used [5]. We
show effectiveness of this method on popular simulated waveform
datasets and real glass data set.
Abstract: We show that Chebyshev Polynomials are a practical representation of computable functions on the computable reals. The paper presents error estimates for common operations and demonstrates that Chebyshev Polynomial methods would be more efficient than Taylor Series methods for evaluation of transcendental functions.
Abstract: The study investigates the causal link between trade
openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for
period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and
after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and
FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run
estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to
openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional
causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity
magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in
1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship.
While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive
sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So
it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall
situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of
error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven
by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.
Abstract: This paper presents a novel method for remaining
useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF)
network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a
modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take
into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is
needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to
represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The
estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an
incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF
network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the
case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining
useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance
decision and resource planning.
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.
Abstract: Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main
essential with which an economy is managed and run. While
planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to
be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual
collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue
collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial
estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the
whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic
indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long
term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and
economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the
study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration
and error correction mechanism on three different models for the
period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has
a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget
deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.
Abstract: Study of soil properties like field capacity (F.C.) and permanent wilting point (P.W.P.) play important roles in study of soil moisture retention curve. Although these parameters can be measured directly, their measurement is difficult and expensive. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. In this investigation, 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. The data set was divided into two subsets for calibration (80%) and testing (20%) of the models and their normality were tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov method. Both multivariate regression and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques were employed to develop the appropriate PTFs for predicting soil parameters using easily measurable characteristics of clay, silt, O.C, S.P, B.D and CaCO3. The performance of the multivariate regression and ANN models was evaluated using an independent test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 were used. The comparison of RSME for two mentioned models showed that the ANN model gives better estimates of F.C and P.W.P than the multivariate regression model. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for F.C and P.W.P were (2.35, 0.77) and (2.83, 0.72), respectively. The corresponding values for multivariate regression model were (4.46, 0.68) and (5.21, 0.64), respectively. Results showed that ANN with five neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil properties than multivariate regression.
Abstract: This paper proposes, implements and evaluates an original discretization method for continuous random variables, in order to estimate the reliability of systems for which stress and strength are defined as complex functions, and whose reliability is not derivable through analytic techniques. This method is compared to other two discretizing approaches appeared in literature, also through a comparative study involving four engineering applications. The results show that the proposal is very efficient in terms of closeness of the estimates to the true (simulated) reliability. In the study we analyzed both a normal and a non-normal distribution for the random variables: this method is theoretically suitable for each parametric family.
Abstract: The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR)
model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive
(RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model
is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this
paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used
to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results
have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of
the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly
stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables
are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that
variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the
exogenous variables.
Abstract: In a particular case of behavioural model reduction by ANNs, a validity domain shortening has been found. In mechanics, as in other domains, the notion of validity domain allows the engineer to choose a valid model for a particular analysis or simulation. In the study of mechanical behaviour for a cantilever beam (using linear and non-linear models), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Backpropagation (BP) networks have been applied as model reduction technique. This reduced model is constructed to be more efficient than the non-reduced model. Within a less extended domain, the ANN reduced model estimates correctly the non-linear response, with a lower computational cost. It has been found that the neural network model is not able to approximate the linear behaviour while it does approximate the non-linear behaviour very well. The details of the case are provided with an example of the cantilever beam behaviour modelling.
Abstract: In this paper, the modelling and design of artificial neural network architecture for load forecasting purposes is investigated. The primary pre-requisite for power system planning is to arrive at realistic estimates of future demand of power, which is known as Load Forecasting. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) helps in determining the economic, reliable and secure operating strategies for power system. The dependence of load on several factors makes the load forecasting a very challenging job. An over estimation of the load may cause premature investment and unnecessary blocking of the capital where as under estimation of load may result in shortage of equipment and circuits. It is always better to plan the system for the load slightly higher than expected one so that no exigency may arise. In this paper, a load-forecasting model is proposed using a multilayer neural network with an appropriately modified back propagation learning algorithm. Once the neural network model is designed and trained, it can forecast the load of the power system 24 hours ahead on daily basis and can also forecast the cumulative load on daily basis. The real load data that is used for the Artificial Neural Network training was taken from LDC, Gujarat Electricity Board, Jambuva, Gujarat, India. The results show that the load forecasting of the ANN model follows the actual load pattern more accurately throughout the forecasted period.
Abstract: This paper is concerned with motion recognition based fuzzy WP(Wavelet Packet) feature extraction approach from Vicon physical data sets. For this purpose, we use an efficient fuzzy mutual-information-based WP transform for feature extraction. This method estimates the required mutual information using a novel approach based on fuzzy membership function. The physical action data set includes 10 normal and 10 aggressive physical actions that measure the human activity. The data have been collected from 10 subjects using the Vicon 3D tracker. The experiments consist of running, seating, and walking as physical activity motion among various activities. The experimental results revealed that the presented feature extraction approach showed good recognition performance.