The Role of Synthetic Data in Aerial Object Detection

The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics of developing a machine learning application using synthetic data. The study is structured to develop the application for the purpose of deploying the computer vision model. The findings discuss the realities of attempting to develop a computer vision model for practical purpose, and detail the processes, tools and techniques that were used to meet accuracy requirements. The research reveals that synthetic data represent another variable that can be adjusted to improve the performance of a computer vision model. Further, a suite of tools and tuning recommendations are provided.

A Commercial Building Plug Load Management System That Uses Internet of Things Technology to Automatically Identify Plugged-In Devices and Their Locations

Plug and process loads (PPLs) account for a large portion of U.S. commercial building energy use. There is a huge potential to reduce whole building consumption by targeting PPLs for energy savings measures or implementing some form of plug load management (PLM). Despite this potential, there has yet to be a widely adopted commercial PLM technology. This paper describes the Automatic Type and Location Identification System (ATLIS), a PLM system framework with automatic and dynamic load detection (ADLD). ADLD gives PLM systems the ability to automatically identify devices as they are plugged into the outlets of a building. The ATLIS framework takes advantage of smart, connected devices to identify device locations in a building, meter and control their power, and communicate this information to a central database. ATLIS includes five primary capabilities: location identification, communication, control, energy metering, and data storage. A laboratory proof of concept (PoC) demonstrated all but the energy metering capability, and these capabilities were validated using a series of system tests. The PoC was able to identify when a device was plugged into an outlet and the location of the device in the building. When a device was moved, the PoC’s dashboard and database were automatically updated with the new location. The PoC implemented controls to devices from the system dashboard so that devices maintained correct schedules regardless of where they were plugged in within the building. ATLIS’s primary technology application is improved PLM, but other applications include asset management, energy audits, and interoperability for grid-interactive efficient buildings. An ATLIS-based system could also be used to direct power to critical devices, such as ventilators, during a brownout or blackout. Such a framework is an opportunity to make PLM more widespread and reduce the amount of energy consumed by PPLs in current and future commercial buildings.

An Overview of Technology Availability to Support Remote Decentralized Clinical Trials

Developing new medicine and health solutions and improving patient health currently rely on the successful execution of clinical trials, which generate relevant safety and efficacy data. For their success, recruitment and retention of participants are some of the most challenging aspects of protocol adherence. Main barriers include: i) lack of awareness of clinical trials; ii) long distance from the clinical site; iii) the burden on participants, including the duration and number of clinical visits, and iv) high dropout rate. Most of these aspects could be addressed with a new paradigm, namely the Remote Decentralized Clinical Trials (RDCTs). Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted additional advantages and challenges for RDCTs in practice, allowing participants to join trials from home and not depending on site visits, etc. Nevertheless, RDCTs should follow the process and the quality assurance of conventional clinical trials, which involve several processes. For each part of the trial, the Building Blocks, existing software and technologies were assessed through a systematic search. The technology needed to perform RDCTs is widely available and validated but is yet segmented and developed in silos, as different software solutions address different parts of the trial and at various levels. The current paper is analyzing the availability of technology to perform RDCTs, identifying gaps and providing an overview of Basic Building Blocks and functionalities that need to be covered to support the described processes.

Software Product Quality Evaluation Model with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

This paper presents a software product quality evaluation model based on the ISO/IEC 25010 quality model. The evaluation characteristics and sub characteristics were identified from the ISO/IEC 25010 quality model. The multidimensional structure of the quality model is based on characteristics such as functional suitability, performance efficiency, compatibility, usability, reliability, security, maintainability, and portability, and associated sub characteristics. Random numbers are generated to establish the decision maker’s importance weights for each sub characteristics. Also, random numbers are generated to establish the decision matrix of the decision maker’s final scores for each software product against each sub characteristics. Thus, objective criteria importance weights and index scores for datasets were obtained from the random numbers. In the proposed model, five different software product quality evaluation datasets under three different weight vectors were applied to multiple criteria decision analysis method, preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) for comparison, and sensitivity analysis procedure. This study contributes to provide a better understanding of the application of MCDMA methods and ISO/IEC 25010 quality model guidelines in software product quality evaluation process.

Additive Friction Stir Manufacturing Process: Interest in Understanding Thermal Phenomena and Numerical Modeling of the Temperature Rise Phase

Additive Friction Stir Manufacturing, or AFSM, is a new industrial process that follows the emergence of friction-based processes. The AFSM process is a solid-state additive process using the energy produced by the friction at the interface between a rotating non-consumable tool and a substrate. Friction depends on various parameters like axial force, rotation speed or friction coefficient. The feeder material is a metallic rod that flows through a hole in the tool. There is still a lack in understanding of the physical phenomena taking place during the process. This research aims at a better AFSM process understanding and implementation, thanks to numerical simulation and experimental validation performed on a prototype effector. Such an approach is considered a promising way for studying the influence of the process parameters and to finally identify a process window that seems relevant. The deposition of material through the AFSM process takes place in several phases. In chronological order these phases are the docking phase, the dwell time phase, the deposition phase, and the removal phase. The present work focuses on the dwell time phase that enables the temperature rise of the system due to pure friction. An analytic modeling of heat generation based on friction considers as main parameters the rotational speed and the contact pressure. Another parameter considered influential is the friction coefficient assumed to be variable, due to the self-lubrication of the system with the rise in temperature or the materials in contact roughness smoothing over time. This study proposes through a numerical modeling followed by an experimental validation to question the influence of the various input parameters on the dwell time phase. Rotation speed, temperature, spindle torque and axial force are the main monitored parameters during experimentations and serve as reference data for the calibration of the numerical model. This research shows that the geometry of the tool as well as fluctuations of the input parameters like axial force and rotational speed are very influential on the temperature reached and/or the time required to reach the targeted temperature. The main outcome is the prediction of a process window which is a key result for a more efficient process implementation.

Trial of Fecal Microbial Transplantation for the Prevention of Canine Atopic Dermatitis

The skin-gut axis defines the relationship between the intestinal microbiota and the development of pathological skin diseases. Low diversity within the gut can predispose to the development of allergic skin conditions, and a greater diversity of the gastrointestinal microflora has been associated with a reduction of skin flares in people with atopic dermatitis. Manipulation of the gut microflora has been used as a treatment option for several conditions in people, but there is limited data available on the use of fecal transplantation as a preventative measure in either people or dogs. Six, 4-month-old pups from a litter of 10 were presented for diarrhea and/or signs of skin disease (chronic scratching, otitis externa). Of these pups, two were given probiotics with a resultant resolution of diarrhea. The other four pups were given fecal transplantation, either as a sole treatment or in combination with other treatments. Follow-up on the litter of 10 pups was performed at 18 months of age. At this stage, three out of the four pups that had received fecal transplantation had resolved all clinical signs and had no recurrence of either skin or gastrointestinal symptoms, the other pup had one episode of Malassezia otitis. Of the remaining six pups from the litter, all had developed at least one episode of Malassezia otitis externa within the period of five to 18 months of age. Two pups had developed two Malassezia otitis infections, and one had developed three Malassezia otitis infections during this period. Favrot’s criteria for the diagnosis of canine atopic dermatitis include chronic or recurrent Malassezia infections by the age of three years. Early results from this litter predict a reduction in the development of canine atopic disease in dogs given fecal microbial transplantation. Follow-up studies at three years of age and within a larger population of dogs can enhance understanding of the impact of early fecal transplantation in the prevention of canine atopic dermatitis.

Evaluation of Iranian Standard for Assessment of Liquefaction Potential of Cohesionless Soils Based on Standard Penetration Test

In-situ testing is preferred to evaluate the liquefaction potential in cohesionless soils due to high disturbance during sampling. Although new in-situ methods with high accuracy have been developed, standard penetration test, the simplest and the oldest in-situ test, is still used due to the profusion of the recorded data. This paper reviews the Iranian standard of evaluating liquefaction potential in soils (codes 525) and compares the liquefaction assessment methods based on standard penetration test (SPT) results on cohesionless soil in this standard with the international standards. To this, methods for assessing liquefaction potential are compared with what is presented in standard 525. It is found that although the procedure used in Iranian standard of evaluating the potential of liquefaction has not been updated according to the new findings, it is a conservative procedure.

Method for Tuning Level Control Loops Based on Internal Model Control and Closed Loop Step Test Data

This paper describes a two-stage methodology derived from IMC (Internal Model Control) for tuning a PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller for levels or other integrating processes in an industrial environment. Focus is ease of use and implementation speed which are critical for an industrial application. Tuning can be done with minimum effort and without the need of time-consuming open-loop step tests on the plant. The first stage of the method applies to levels only: the vessel residence time is calculated from equipment dimensions and used to derive a set of preliminary PI (Proportional-Integral) settings with IMC. The second stage, re-tuning in closed-loop, applies to levels as well as other integrating processes: a tuning correction mechanism has been developed based on a series of closed-loop simulations with model errors. The tuning correction is done from a simple closed-loop step test and application of a generic correlation between observed overshoot and integral time correction. A spin-off of the method is that an estimate of the vessel residence time (levels) or open-loop process gain (other integrating process) is obtained from the closed-loop data.

Incorporating Lexical-Semantic Knowledge into Convolutional Neural Network Framework for Pediatric Disease Diagnosis

The utilization of electronic medical record (EMR) data to establish the disease diagnosis model has become an important research content of biomedical informatics. Deep learning can automatically extract features from the massive data, which brings about breakthroughs in the study of EMR data. The challenge is that deep learning lacks semantic knowledge, which leads to impracticability in medical science. This research proposes a method of incorporating lexical-semantic knowledge from abundant entities into a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for pediatric disease diagnosis. Firstly, medical terms are vectorized into Lexical Semantic Vectors (LSV), which are concatenated with the embedded word vectors of word2vec to enrich the feature representation. Secondly, the semantic distribution of medical terms serves as Semantic Decision Guide (SDG) for the optimization of deep learning models. The study evaluates the performance of LSV-SDG-CNN model on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. Additionally, CNN, LSV-CNN, and SDG-CNN are designed as baseline models for comparison. The experimental results show that LSV-SDG-CNN model outperforms baseline models on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. The best configuration of the model yielded an F1 score of 86.20%. The results clearly demonstrate that CNN has been effectively guided and optimized by lexical-semantic knowledge, and LSV-SDG-CNN model improves the disease classification accuracy with a clear margin.

An E-Maintenance IoT Sensor Node Designed for Fleets of Diverse Heavy-Duty Vehicles

E-maintenance is a relatively recent concept, generally referring to maintenance management by monitoring assets over the Internet. One of the key links in the chain of an e-maintenance system is data acquisition and transmission. Specifically for the case of a fleet of heavy-duty vehicles, where the main challenge is the diversity of the vehicles and vehicle-embedded self-diagnostic/reporting technologies, the design of the data acquisition and transmission unit is a demanding task. This is clear if one takes into account that a heavy-vehicles fleet assortment may range from vehicles with only a limited number of analog sensors monitored by dashboard light indicators and gauges to vehicles with plethora of sensors monitored by a vehicle computer producing digital reporting. The present work proposes an adaptable internet of things (IoT) sensor node that is capable of addressing this challenge. The proposed sensor node architecture is based on the increasingly popular single-board computer – expansion boards approach. In the proposed solution, the expansion boards undertake the tasks of position identification, cellular connectivity, connectivity to the vehicle computer, and connectivity to analog and digital sensors by means of a specially targeted design of expansion board. Specifically, the latter offers a number of adaptability features to cope with the diverse sensor types employed in different vehicles. In standard mode, the IoT sensor node communicates to the data center through cellular network, transmitting all digital/digitized sensor data, IoT device identity and position. Moreover, the proposed IoT sensor node offers connectivity, through WiFi and an appropriate application, to smart phones or tablets allowing the registration of additional vehicle- and driver-specific information and these data are also forwarded to the data center. All control and communication tasks of the IoT sensor node are performed by dedicated firmware.

A 3D Numerical Environmental Modeling Approach for Assessing Transport of Spilled Oil in Porous Beach Conditions under a Meso-Scale Tank Design

Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental meso-scale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to that obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Verification of Space System Dynamics Using the MATLAB Identification Toolbox in Space Qualification Test

This article presents an approach with regards to the Functional Testing of Space System (SS) that could be a space vehicle (spacecraft-S/C) and/or its equipment and components – S/C subsystems. This test should finalize the Space Qualification Tests (SQT) campaign. It could be considered as a generic test and used for a wide class of SS that, from the point of view of System Dynamics and Control Theory, may be described by the ordinary differential equations. The suggested methodology is based on using semi-natural experiment laboratory stand that does not require complicated, precise and expensive technological control-verification equipment. However, it allows for testing totally assembled system during Assembling, Integration and Testing (AIT) activities at the final phase of SQT, involving system hardware (HW) and software (SW). The test physically activates system input (sensors) and output (actuators) and requires recording their outputs in real time. The data are then inserted in a laboratory computer, where it is post-experiment processed by the MATLAB/Simulink Identification Toolbox. It allows for estimating the system dynamics in the form of estimation of its differential equation coefficients through the verification experimental test and comparing them with expected mathematical model, prematurely verified by mathematical simulation during the design process. Mathematical simulation results presented in the article show that this approach could be applicable and helpful in SQT practice. Further semi-natural experiments should specify detail requirements for the test laboratory equipment and test-procedures.

Effect of Needle Height on Discharge Coefficient and Cavitation Number

Cavitation inside diesel injector nozzle is investigated using Reynolds-Stress-Navier stokes equations. Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model is used for modeling cavitation inside diesel injector nozzle. The carrying fluid utilized in the current study is diesel fuel. The flow is verified at the beginning by comparing with the previous experimental data and it was found that K-Epsilon turbulent model could lead to a better accuracy comparing to K-Omega turbulent model. Moreover, mass flow rate obtained numerically is compared with the experimental value and discrepancy was found to be less than 5% - which shows the accuracy of the current results. Finally, a real-size four-hole nozzle is investigated and the flow inside it is visualized based on velocity profile, discharge coefficient and cavitation number. It was found that the mesh density could be reduced significantly by utilizing periodic boundary condition. Velocity contour at the mid nozzle showed that maximum value of velocity occurs at the end of the needle before entering the orifice area. Last but not least, at the same boundary conditions, when different needle heights were utilized, it was found that as needle height increases with an increase in cavitation number, discharge coefficient increases, while the mentioned increases is more tangible at smaller values of needle heights.

Associations among Fetuin A, Cortisol and Thyroid Hormones in Children with Morbid Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome

Obesity is a disease with an ever-increasing prevalence throughout the world. The metabolic network associated with obesity is very complicated. In metabolic syndrome (MetS), it becomes even more difficult to understand. Within this context, hormones, cytokines, and many others participate in this complex matrix. The collaboration among all of these parameters is a matter of great wonder. Cortisol, as a stress hormone, is closely associated with obesity. Thyroid hormones are involved in the regulation of energy as well as glucose metabolism with all of its associates. Fetuin A has been known for years; however, the involvement of this parameter in obesity discussions is rather new. Recently, it has been defined as one of the new generation markers of obesity. In this study, the aim was to introduce complex interactions among all to be able to make clear comparisons, at least for a part of this complicated matter. Morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Two groups with 46 MO children and 43 with MetS were constituted. All children included in the study were above 99th age- and sex-adjusted body mass index (BMI) percentiles according to World Health Organization criteria. Forty-three morbid obese children in the second group also had MetS components. Informed consent forms were filled by the parents of the participants. The institutional ethics committee has given approval for the study protocol. Data as well as the findings of the study were evaluated from a statistical point of view. Two groups were matched for their age and gender compositions. Significantly higher body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, thyrotropin, and insulin values were observed in the MetS group. Triiodothyronine concentrations did not differ between the groups. Elevated levels for thyroxin, cortisol, and fetuin-A were detected in the MetS group compared to the first group (p > 0.05). In MO MetS- group, cortisol was correlated with thyroxin and fetuin-A (p < 0.05). In the MO MetS+ group, none of these correlations were present. Instead, a correlation between cortisol and thyrotropin was found (p < 0.05). In conclusion, findings have shown that cortisol was the key player in severely obese children. The association of this hormone with the participants of thyroid hormone metabolism was quite important. The lack of association with fetuin A in the morbid obese MetS+ group has suggested the possible interference of MetS components in the behavior of this new generation obesity marker. The most remarkable finding of the study was the unique correlation between cortisol and thyrotropin in the morbid obese MetS+ group, suggesting that thyrotropin may serve as a target along with cortisol in the morbid obese MetS+ group. This association may deserve specific attention during the development of remedies against MetS in the pediatric population.

Relationship between Hepatokines and Insulin Resistance in Childhood Obesity

Childhood obesity is an important clinical problem, because it may lead to chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the individual. Obesity is a metabolic disease associated with low-grade inflammation. The liver occurs at the center of metabolic pathways. Adropin, fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF-21) and fetuin A are hepatokines. Due to the immense participation of the liver in glucose metabolism, these liver derived factors may be associated with insulin resistance (IR), which is a phenomenon discussed within the scope of obesity problems. The aim of this study is to determine the concentrations of adropin, FGF-21 and fetuin A in childhood obesity, to point out possible differences between the obesity groups and to investigate possible associations among these three hepatokines in obese and morbid obese children. A total of 132 children were included in the study. Two obese groups were constituted. The groups were matched in terms of mean±SD values of ages. Body mass index values of the obese and morbid obese groups were 25.0±3.5 kg/m2 and 29.8±5.7 kg/m2, respectively. Anthropometric measurements including waist circumference, hip circumference, head circumference, and neck circumference were recorded. Informed consent forms were taken from the parents of the participants and the Ethics Committee of the institution approved the study protocol. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine biochemical tests including glucose- and lipid-related parameters were performed. Concentrations of the hepatokines (adropin, FGF-21, fetuin A) were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Insulin resistance indices such as homeostasis model assessment for IR (HOMA-IR), alanine transaminase-to aspartate transaminase ratio (ALT/AST), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment laboratory index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment metabolic syndrome index as well as obesity indices such as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II index, and fat mass index were calculated using the previously derived formulas. Statistical evaluation of the study data as well as findings of the study were performed by SPSS for Windows. Statistical difference was accepted significant when p < 0.05. Statistically significant differences were found for insulin, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of the groups. A significant increase was observed for FGF-21 concentrations in the morbid obese group. Higher adropin and fetuin A concentrations were observed in the same group in comparison with the values detected in the obese group (p > 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the ALT/AST values of the groups. In all of the remaining IR and obesity indices, significantly increased values were calculated for morbid obese children. Significant correlations were detected between HOMA-IR and each of the hepatokines. The highest one was the association with fetuin A (r = 0.373, p = 0.001). In conclusion, increased levels observed in adropin, FGF-21 and fetuin A have shown that these hepatokines possess increasing potential going from the obese to morbid obese state. Out of the correlations found with IR index, the most affected hepatokine was fetuin A, the parameter possibly used as the indicator of the advanced obesity stage.

Assessing the Theoretical Suitability of Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 Data for Hydrocarbon Mapping of Spill Events, Using HYSS

Identification of hydrocarbon oil in remote sensing images is often the first step in monitoring oil during spill events. Most remote sensing methods adopt techniques for hydrocarbon identification to achieve detection in order to model an appropriate cleanup program. Identification on optical sensors does not only allow for detection but also for characterization and quantification. Until recently, in optical remote sensing, quantification and characterization were only potentially possible using high-resolution laboratory and airborne imaging spectrometers (hyperspectral data). Unlike multispectral, hyperspectral data are not freely available, as this data category is mainly obtained via airborne survey at present. In this research, two operational high-resolution multispectral satellites (WorldView-3 and Sentinel-2) are theoretically assessed for their suitability for hydrocarbon characterization, using the Hydrocarbon Spectra Slope model (HYSS). This method utilized the two most persistent hydrocarbon diagnostic/absorption features at 1.73 µm and 2.30 µm for hydrocarbon mapping on multispectral data. In this research, spectra measurement of seven different hydrocarbon oils (crude and refined oil) taken on 10 different substrates with the use of laboratory ASD Fieldspec were convolved to Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 resolution, using their full width half maximum (FWHM) parameter. The resulting hydrocarbon slope values obtained from the studied samples enable clear qualitative discrimination of most hydrocarbons, despite the presence of different background substrates, particularly on WorldView-3. Due to close conformity of central wavelengths and narrow bandwidths to key hydrocarbon bands used in HYSS, the statistical significance for qualitative analysis on WorldView-3 sensors for all studied hydrocarbon oil returned with 95% confidence level (P-value ˂ 0.01), except for Diesel. Using multifactor analysis of variance (MANOVA), the discriminating power of HYSS is statistically significant for most hydrocarbon-substrate combinations on Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 FWHM, revealing the potential of these two operational multispectral sensors as rapid response tools for hydrocarbon mapping. One notable exception is highly transmissive hydrocarbons on Sentinel-2 data due to the non-conformity of spectral bands with key hydrocarbon absorptions and the relatively coarse bandwidth (> 100 nm).

Electrostatic Cleaning System Integrated with Thunderon Brush for Lunar Dust Mitigation

Detrimental effects of lunar dust on space hardware, spacesuits, and astronauts’ health have been already identified during Apollo missions. Developing effective dust mitigation technologies is critically important for successful space exploration and related missions in NASA applications. In this study, an electrostatic cleaning system (ECS) integrated with a negatively ionized Thunderon brush was developed to mitigate small-sized lunar dust particles with diameters ranging from 0.04 µm to 35 µm, and the mean and median size of 7 µm and 5 µm, respectively. It was found that the frequency pulses of the negative ion generator caused particles to stick to the Thunderon bristles and repel between the pulses. The brush was used manually to ensure that particles were removed from areas where the ECS failed to mitigate the lunar simulant. The acquired data demonstrated that the developed system removed over 91-96% of the lunar dust particles. The present study was performed as a proof-of-concept to enhance the cleaning performance of ECSs by integrating a brushing process. Suggestions were made to further improve the performance of the developed technology through future research.

OILU Tag: A Projective Invariant Fiducial System

This paper presents the development of a 2D visual marker, derived from a recent patented work in the field of numbering systems. The proposed fiducial uses a group of projective invariant straight-line patterns, easily detectable and remotely recognizable. Based on an efficient data coding scheme, the developed marker enables producing a large panel of unique real time identifiers with highly distinguishable patterns. The proposed marker Incorporates simultaneously decimal and binary information, making it readable by both humans and machines. This important feature opens up new opportunities for the development of efficient visual human-machine communication and monitoring protocols. Extensive experiment tests validate the robustness of the marker against acquisition and geometric distortions.

Scenario and Decision Analysis for Solar Energy in Egypt by 2035 Using Dynamic Bayesian Network

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Design Systems and the Need for a Usability Method: Assessing the Fitness of Components and Interaction Patterns in Design Systems Using Atmosphere Methodology

The present study proposes a usability test method, Atmosphere, to assess the fitness of components and interaction patterns of design systems. The method covers the user’s perception of the components of the system, the efficiency of the logic of the interaction patterns, perceived ease of use as well as the user’s understanding of the intended outcome of interactions. These aspects are assessed by combining measures of first impression, visual affordance and expectancy. The method was applied to a design system developed for the design of an electronic health record system. The study was conducted involving 15 healthcare personnel. It could be concluded that the Atmosphere method provides tangible data that enable human-computer interaction practitioners to analyze and categorize components and patterns based on perceived usability, success rate of identifying interactive components and success rate of understanding components and interaction patterns intended outcome.