Abstract: Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.
Abstract: The performance of Decode and Forward (DF)
multihop Free Space Optical ( FSO) scheme deploying Multiple Input
Multiple Output (MIMO) configuration under Gamma-Gamma (GG)
statistical distribution, that adopts M-ary Pulse Position Modulation
(MPPM) coding, is investigated. We have extracted exact and
estimated values of Symbol-Error Rates (SERs) respectively. A
closed form formula related to the Probability Density Function
(PDF) is expressed for our designed system. Thanks to the use
of DF multihop MIMO FSO configuration and MPPM signaling,
atmospheric turbulence is combatted; hence the transmitted signal
quality is improved.
Abstract: In this paper, we deal with the optimal I/O point location in an automated parking system. In this system, the S/R machine (storage and retrieve machine) travels independently in vertical and horizontal directions. Based on the characteristics of the parking system and the basic principle of AS/RS system (Automated Storage and Retrieval System), we obtain the continuous model in units of time. For the single command cycle using the randomized storage policy, we calculate the probability density function for the system travel time and thus we develop the travel time model. And we confirm that the travel time model shows a good performance by comparing with discrete case. Finally in this part, we establish the optimal model by minimizing the expected travel time model and it is shown that the optimal location of the I/O point is located at the middle of the left-hand above corner.
Abstract: The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.
Abstract: Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.
Abstract: Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.
Abstract: Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a neural approach for
unsupervised natural color-texture image segmentation, which is
based on both Kohonen maps and mathematical morphology, using
a combination of the texture and the image color information of the
image, namely, the fractal features based on fractal dimension are
selected to present the information texture, and the color features
presented in RGB color space. These features are then used to train
the network Kohonen, which will be represented by the underlying
probability density function, the segmentation of this map is made
by morphological watershed transformation. The performance of our
color-texture segmentation approach is compared first, to color-based
methods or texture-based methods only, and then to k-means method.
Abstract: This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.
Abstract: This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.
Abstract: Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability
to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present.
Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the
probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict
what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations.
In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion
process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend
is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In
general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the
characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has
made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who
have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying
problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing,
and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start
by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the
explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by
transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in
the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of
this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we
analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated
with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to
real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall,
the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on
the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and
the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents
the best currently available description of the phenomenon under
consideration.
Abstract: Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.
Abstract: Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.
Abstract: In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a
probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the
blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic
wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque
probability density functions even-dough decreases at these extreme
wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also fund that it
is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output
power)above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters.
This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality
and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.
Abstract: This paper proposes frequency offset (FO) estimation
schemes robust to the non-Gaussian noise for orthogonal frequency
division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. A maximum-likelihood (ML)
scheme and a low-complexity estimation scheme are proposed by
applying the probability density function of the cyclic prefix of
OFDM symbols to the ML criterion. From simulation results, it is
confirmed that the proposed schemes offer a significant FO estimation
performance improvement over the conventional estimation scheme
in non-Gaussian noise environments.
Abstract: We have investigated statistical properties of the defect turbulence in 1D CGLE wherein many body interaction is involved between local depressing wave (LDW) and local standing wave (LSW). It is shown that the counting number fluctuation of LDW is subject to the sub-Poisson statistics (SUBP). The physical origin of the SUBP can be ascribed to pair extinction of LDWs based on the master equation approach. It is also shown that the probability density function (pdf) of inter-LDW distance can be identified by the hyper gamma distribution. Assuming a superstatistics of the exponential distribution (Poisson configuration), a plausible explanation is given. It is shown further that the pdf of amplitude of LDW has a fattail. The underlying mechanism of its fluctuation is examined by introducing a generalized fractional Poisson configuration.
Abstract: A new approach is adopted in this paper based
on Turk and Pentland-s eigenface method. It was found that the
probability density function of the distance between the projection
vector of the input face image and the average projection vector of
the subject in the face database, follows Rayleigh distribution. In
order to decrease the false acceptance rate and increase the
recognition rate, the input face image has been recognized using two
thresholds including the acceptance threshold and the rejection
threshold. We also find out that the value of two thresholds will be
close to each other as number of trials increases. During the training,
in order to reduce the number of trials, the projection vectors for each
subject has been averaged. The recognition experiments using the
proposed algorithm show that the recognition rate achieves to
92.875% whilst the average number of judgment is only 2.56 times.
Abstract: The angular distribution of Compton scattering of two
quanta originating in the annihilation of a positron with an electron
is investigated as a quantum key distribution (QKD) mechanism in
the gamma spectral range. The geometry of coincident Compton
scattering is observed on the two sides as a way to obtain partially
correlated readings on the quantum channel. We derive the noise
probability density function of a conceptually equivalent prepare
and measure quantum channel in order to evaluate the limits of the
concept in terms of the device secrecy capacity and estimate it at
roughly 1.9 bits per 1 000 annihilation events. The high error rate
is well above the tolerable error rates of the common reconciliation
protocols; therefore, the proposed key agreement protocol by public
discussion requires key reconciliation using classical error-correcting
codes. We constructed a prototype device based on the readily
available monolithic detectors in the least complex setup.
Abstract: Constant upgrading of Enterprise Resource Planning
(ERP) systems is necessary, but can cause new defects. This paper
attempts to model the likelihood of defects after completed upgrades
with Weibull defect probability density function (PDF). A case study
is presented analyzing data of recorded defects obtained for one ERP
subsystem. The trends are observed for the value of the parameters
relevant to the proposed statistical Weibull distribution for a given
one year period. As a result, the ability to predict the appearance of
defects after the next upgrade is described.
Abstract: Speckled images arise when coherent microwave,
optical, and acoustic imaging techniques are used to image an object, surface or scene. Examples of coherent imaging systems include synthetic aperture radar, laser imaging systems, imaging sonar
systems, and medical ultrasound systems. Speckle noise is a form of object or target induced noise that results when the surface of the object is Rayleigh rough compared to the wavelength of the illuminating radiation. Detection and estimation in images corrupted
by speckle noise is complicated by the nature of the noise and is not
as straightforward as detection and estimation in additive noise. In
this work, we derive stochastic models for speckle noise, with an emphasis on speckle as it arises in medical ultrasound images. The
motivation for this work is the problem of segmentation and tissue classification using ultrasound imaging. Modeling of speckle in this
context involves partially developed speckle model where an underlying Poisson point process modulates a Gram-Charlier series
of Laguerre weighted exponential functions, resulting in a doubly
stochastic filtered Poisson point process. The statistical distribution of partially developed speckle is derived in a closed canonical form.
It is observed that as the mean number of scatterers in a resolution cell is increased, the probability density function approaches an
exponential distribution. This is consistent with fully developed speckle noise as demonstrated by the Central Limit theorem.