Abstract: This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary
bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order
one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The
BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning
operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the
two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on
these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments
of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial
stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of
the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML)
estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution
properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model
are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where
BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate
Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of
the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation
experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained
are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model
is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in
Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed
cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model
is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate
a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on
the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide
reliable one-step ahead forecasts.
Abstract: Mauritius, a developing small-island-state, is facing a recession which is having a considerable economic impact particularly on its construction sector. Further, the presence of foreign entities, both as companies and workers, within this sector is creating a very competitive environment for local firms. This study investigates the key drivers that allow foreign firms to participate in this sector, in particular looking at the international and local tender processes, and the capacity of local industry to participate. This study also looks at how the current set up may hinder the latter’s involvement. The methodology used included qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with established foreign companies, local companies, and public bodies. Study findings indicate: there is an adequate availability of professional skills and expertise within the Mauritian construction industry but a lack of skilled labour especially at the operative level; projects awarded to foreign firms are either due to their uniqueness and hence lack of local knowledge, or due to foreign firms having lower tender bids; tendering systems and processes are weak, including monitoring and enforcement, which encourages corruption and favouritism; a high lev el of ignorance of this sector’s characteristics and opportunities exists amongst the local population; local entities are very profit oriented and have short term strategies that discourage long term investment in workforce training and development; but most importantly, stakeholders do not grasp the importance of encouraging youngsters to join this sector, they have no long term vision, and there is a lack of mutual involvement and collaboration between them. Although local industry is highly competent, qualified and experienced, the tendering and procurement systems in Mauritius are not conducive enough to allow for effective strategic planning and an equitable allocation of projects during an economic downturn so that the broadest spread of stakeholders’ benefit. It is of utmost importance that all sector and government entities collaborate to formulate strategies and reforms on tender processes and capacity building to ensure fairness and continuous growth of this sector in Mauritius.
Abstract: In Mauritius, much emphasis is put on measures to
combat the high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
Health promotion campaigns for the adoption of healthy behaviors
and screening programs are done regularly by local authorities and
NCD surveys are carried out at intervals. However, the health
behaviors of the poor have not been investigated so far. This study
aims to give an insight on the perceptions of health status and
lifestyle health behaviors of poor people in Mauritius. A crosssectional
study among 83 persons benefiting from social aid in a
selected urban district was carried out. Results showed that 51.8% of
respondents perceived that they had good health status. 57.8% had no
known NCD whilst 25.3% had hypertension, followed by diabetes
(16.9%), asthma (9.6%) and heart disease (7.2%).They had low
smoking (10.8%) and alcohol consumption (6.0%) as well as high
physical activity prevalence (54.2%). These results were significantly
different from the NCD survey carried out in the general population.
Consumption of vegetables in the study was high. Overweight and
obesity trends were however similar to the NCD survey report 2009.
These findings contrast with other international studies showing poor
people having poor perceptions of health status and unhealthy
behavioral choices. Whether these positive health behaviors of poor
people in Mauritius arise out of choice or whether it is because the
alternative behavior is too costly remains to be investigated further.
Abstract: Knowledge modelling, a main activity for the development of Knowledge Based Systems, have no set standards and are mostly done in an ad hoc way. There is a lack of support for the transition from abstract level to implementation. In this paper, a methodology for the development of the knowledge model, which is inspired by both Software and Knowledge Engineering, is proposed. Use of UML which is the de-facto standard for modelling in the software engineering arena is explored for knowledge modelling. The methodology proposed, is used to develop a knowledge model of a knowledge based system for recommending suitable hotels for tourists visiting Mauritius.
Abstract: In this paper, we apply and compare two generalized estimating equation approaches to the analysis of car breakdowns data in Mauritius. Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observation as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use the two types of quasi-likelihood estimation approaches to estimate the parameters of the model: marginal and joint generalized quasi-likelihood estimating equation approaches. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be around 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling underdispersed count responses recorded in this study.
Abstract: In this paper, the Tabu search algorithm is used to
solve a transportation problem which consists of determining the
shortest routes with the appropriate vehicle capacity to facilitate the
travel of the students attending the University of Mauritius. The aim
of this work is to minimize the total cost of the distance travelled by
the vehicles in serving all the customers. An initial solution is
obtained by the TOUR algorithm which basically constructs a giant
tour containing all the customers and partitions it in an optimal way
so as to produce a set of feasible routes. The Tabu search algorithm
then makes use of a search procedure, a swapping procedure and the
intensification and diversification mechanism to find the best set of
feasible routes.
Abstract: E-learning refers to the specific kind of learning
experienced within the domain of educational technology, which can
be used in or out of the classroom. In this paper, we give an
overview of an e-learning platform 'An Innovative Interactive and
Online English Platform for Upper Primary Students' is an
interactive web-based application which will serve as an aid to the
primary school students in Mauritius. The objectives of this platform
are to offer quality learning resources for the English subject at our
primary level of education, encourage self-learning and hence
promote e-learning. The platform developed consists of several
interesting features, for example, the English Verb Conjugation tool,
Negative Form tool, Interrogative Form tool and Close Test
Generator. Thus, this learning platform will be useful at a time
where our country is looking for an alternative to private tuition and
also, looking forward to increase the pass rate.
Abstract: Almost all universities include some form of assignment in their courses. The assignments are either carried out in either in groups or individually. To effectively manage these submitted assignments, a well-designed assignment submission system is needed, hence the need for an online assignment submission system to facilitate the distribution, and collection of assignments on due dates. The objective of such system is to facilitate interaction of lecturers and students for assessment and grading purposes. The aim of this study was to create a web based online assignment submission system for University of Mauritius. The system was created to eliminate the traditional process of giving an assignment and collecting the answers for the assignment. Lecturers can also create automated assessment to assess the students online. Moreover, the online submission system consists of an automatic mailing system which acts as a reminder for students about the deadlines of the posted assignments. System was tested to measure its acceptance rate among both student and lecturers.
Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is of fundamental importance because it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, in developed countries, exclusive breastfeeding has decreased the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we study the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use the Generalized Poisson regression model to analyze the practices of exclusive breastfeeding in Mauritius. We develop two sets of quasi-likelihood equations (QLE)to estimate the parameters.