Abstract: Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.
Abstract: Recent environmental turbulence including financial
crisis, intensified competitive forces, rapid technological change and
high market turbulence have dramatically changed the current
business climate. The managers firms have to plan and decide what
the best approaches that best fit their firms in order to pursue superior
performance. This research aims to examine the influence of strategic
reasoning and top level managers- individual characteristics on the
effectiveness of organizational improvisation and firm performance.
Given the lack of studies on these relationships in the previous
literature, there is significant contribution to the body of knowledge
as well as for managerial practices. 128 responses from top
management of technology-based companies in Malaysia were used
as a sample. Three hypotheses were examined and the findings
confirm that (a) there is no relationship between intuitive reasoning
and organizational improvisation but there is a link between rational
reasoning and organizational improvisation, (b) top level managers-
individual characteristics as a whole affect organizational
improvisation; and (c) organizational improvisation positively affects
firm performance. The theoretical and managerial implications were
discussed in the conclusions.
Abstract: Based on different experiences in the historic centers
of Spain, we propose an global strategy for the regeneration of the
pre-tertiary fabrics and its application to the specific case of San
Mateo neighborhood, in Jerez de la Frontera (Andalusia), through a
diagnosis that focus particularly on the punishments the last-decade
economic situation (building boom and crisis) and shows the tragic
transition from economic center to an imminent disappearance with
an image similar to the ruins of war, due to the loss of their
traditional roles. From it we will learn their historically-tested
mechanisms of environment adaptation, which distill the vernacular
architecture essence and that we will apply to our strategy of action
based on a dotacional-and-free-space rhizome which rediscovers its
hidden character. The architectural fact will be crystallized in one of
the example-pieces proposed: The Artistic Revitalization Center.
Abstract: In the current context of globalization, a large number of companies sought to develop as a group in order to reach to other markets or meet the necessary criteria for listing on a stock exchange. The issue of consolidated financial statements prepared by a parent, an investor or a venture and the financial reporting standards guiding them therefore becomes even more important. The aim of our paper is to expose this issue in a consistent manner, first by summarizing the international accounting and financial reporting standards applicable before the 1st of January 2013 and considering the role of the crisis in shaping the standard setting process, and secondly by analyzing the newly issued/modified standards and main changes being brought
Abstract: Strategic alliances generally mean the cooperation or
collaboration between firms which pursue for a synergy that each
member hopes the benefits from the alliances would be much more
than those from individual efforts. Past researches provide us
sufficient theories and considerations for alliance forming in liner
shipping market. This research reviews important academic journals
for the past decade regarding to the most important reasons to form the
alliances. We would explain the motive of alliances and details of
shipping cooperation in literature review.
The paper also empirically investigates the key service quality
requirements improved through alliances by using quality function
deployment (QFD). Moreover, the research investigates famous
shipping reports, shipping consultant websites and most recent
shipping publications to find out the executive-s viewpoint of several
leading carriers among top 20 to assess current shipping strategic
alliance on Asia/Europe route. These comments provide meaningful
managerial reasons to consider alliance formations and search if there
is any gap between the theories and industrial practice. Analysis of the
empirical investigation and top management-s perspective on current
market situation will contribute us some meaningful managerial
suggestions to evaluate these theories applied to current strategic
alliances.
Abstract: The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) influences how financial institutions around the world, and especially European Union institutions, determine the amount of capital to reserve. However, as the recent global crisis has shown, the revision of Basel II is needed to reflect current trends, such as increased volatility and correlation, in the world financial markets. The overall objective of Basel II is to increase the safety and soundness of the international financial system. Basel II builds on three main pillars: Pillar I deals with the minimum capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk, Pillar II focuses on the supervisory review process and finally Pillar III promotes market discipline through enhanced disclosure requirements for banks. The aim of this paper is to provide the historical background, key features and impact of Basel II on financial markets. Moreover, we discuss new proposals for international bank regulation (sometimes referred to as Basel III) which include requirements for higher quality, constituency and transparency of banks' capital and risk management, regulation of OTC markets and introduction of new liquidity standards for internationally active banks.
Abstract: Aims for this study: first, to compare the expertise
level in data analysis, communication and information technologies
in undergraduate psychology students. Second, to verify the factor
structure of E-ETICA (Escala de Experticia en Tecnologias de la Informacion, la Comunicacion y el Análisis or Data Analysis,
Communication and Information'Expertise Scale) which had shown
an excellent internal consistency (α= 0.92) as well as a simple factor
structure. Three factors, Complex, Basic Information and
Communications Technologies and E-Searching and Download
Abilities, explains 63% of variance. In the present study, 260
students (119 juniors and 141 seniors) were asked to respond to
ETICA (16 items Likert scale of five points 1: null domain to 5: total
domain). The results show that both junior and senior students report
having very similar expertise level; however, E-ETICA presents a
different factor structure for juniors and four factors explained also
63% of variance: Information E-Searching, Download and Process;
Data analysis; Organization; and Communication technologies.
Abstract: Biodiversity crisis is one of the many crises that
started at the turn of the millennia. Concrete form of expression is
still disputed, but there is a relatively high consensus regarding the
high rate of degradation and the urgent need for action. The strategy
of action outlines a strong economic component, together with the
recognition of market mechanisms as the most effective policies to
protect biodiversity. In this context, biodiversity and ecosystem
services are natural assets that play a key role in economic strategies
and technological development to promote development and
prosperity. Developing and strengthening policies for transition to an
economy based on efficient use of resources is the way forward.
To emphasize the co-viability specific to the connection economyecosystem
services, scientific approach aimed on one hand how to
implement policies for nature conservation and on the other hand, the
concepts underlying the economic expression of ecosystem services-
value, in the context of current technology. Following the analysis of
business opportunities associated with changes in ecosystem services
was concluded that development of market mechanisms for nature
conservation is a trend that is increasingly stronger individualized
within recent years. Although there are still many controversial issues
that have already given rise to an obvious bias, international
organizations and national governments have initiated and
implemented in cooperation or independently such mechanisms.
Consequently, they created the conditions for convergence between
private interests and social interests of nature conservation, so there
are opportunities for ongoing business development which leads,
among other things, the positive effects on biodiversity. Finally,
points out that markets fail to quantify the value of most ecosystem
services. Existing price signals reflect at best, only a proportion of the
total amount corresponding provision of food, water or fuel.
Abstract: Recently research on human wayfinding has focused
mainly on mental representations rather than processes of
wayfinding. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the
rationality behind applying multi-agent simulation paradigm to the
modeling of rescuer team wayfinding in order to develop
computational theory of perceptual wayfinding in crisis situations
using image schemata and affordances, which explains how people
find a specific destination in an unfamiliar building such as a
hospital. The hypothesis of this paper is that successful navigation is
possible if the agents are able to make the correct decision through
well-defined cues in critical cases, so the design of the building
signage is evaluated through the multi-agent-based simulation. In
addition, a special case of wayfinding in a building, finding one-s
way through three hospitals, is used to demonstrate the model.
Thereby, total rescue time for rescue operation during building fire is
computed. This paper discuses the computed rescue time for various
signage localization and provides experimental result for
optimization of building signage design. Therefore the most
appropriate signage design resulted in the shortest total rescue time in
various situations.
Abstract: One of the most important secrets of succesful companies is the fact that cooperation with NGOs will create a good reputation for them so that they can be immunized to economic crisis. The performance of the most admired companies in the world based on the ratings of Forbes and Fortune show us that most of these firms also have close relationships with their NGOs. Today, if companies do something wrong this information spreads very quickly to do the society. If people do not like the activities of a company, it can find itself in public relations nightmare that can threaten its repuation. Since the cost of communication has dropped dramatically due to the vast use of internet, the increase in communication among stakeholders via internet makes companies more visible. These multiple and interdependent interactions among the network of stakeholders is called as the network relationships. NGOs play the role of catalyst among the stakeholders of a firm to enhance the awareness. Succesful firms are aware of this fact that NGOs have a central role in today-s business world. Firms are also aware of the fact that they can enhance their corporate reputation via cooperation with the NGOs. This fact will be illustrated in this paper by examining some of the actions of the most succesful companies in terms of their cooperations with the NGOs.
Abstract: Software project effort estimation is frequently seen
as complex and expensive for individual software engineers.
Software production is in a crisis. It suffers from excessive costs.
Software production is often out of control. It has been suggested that
software production is out of control because we do not measure.
You cannot control what you cannot measure. During last decade, a
number of researches on cost estimation have been conducted. The
metric-set selection has a vital role in software cost estimation
studies; its importance has been ignored especially in neural network
based studies. In this study we have explored the reasons of those
disappointing results and implemented different neural network
models using augmented new metrics. The results obtained are
compared with previous studies using traditional metrics. To be able
to make comparisons, two types of data have been used. The first
part of the data is taken from the Constructive Cost Model
(COCOMO'81) which is commonly used in previous studies and the
second part is collected according to new metrics in a leading
international company in Turkey. The accuracy of the selected
metrics and the data samples are verified using statistical techniques.
The model presented here is based on Multi-Layer Perceptron
(MLP). Another difficulty associated with the cost estimation studies
is the fact that the data collection requires time and care. To make a
more thorough use of the samples collected, k-fold, cross validation
method is also implemented. It is concluded that, as long as an
accurate and quantifiable set of metrics are defined and measured
correctly, neural networks can be applied in software cost estimation
studies with success
Abstract: This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.
Abstract: The environmental impacts caused by the current production and consumption models, together with the impact that the current economic crisis, bring necessary changes in the European industry toward new business models based on sustainability issues that could allow them to innovate and improve their competitiveness. This paper analyzes the key environmental issues and the current and future market trends in one of the most important industrial sectors in Spain, the furniture sector. It also proposes new decision support tools -diagnostic kit, roadmap and guidelines- to guide companies to implement sustainability criteria into their organizations, including eco-design strategies and other economical and social strategies in accordance with the sustainability definition, and other available tools such as eco-labels, environmental management systems, etc., and to use and combine them to obtain the results the company expects to help improve its competitiveness.
Abstract: This work shows a basic philosophical difficulty in the constructivist foundations of the cognitive posracionalist psychology of Vittorio Guidano. This is a difficulty caused by the problem of the existential crisis. It will be analyzed how Guidano-s suggestions about this problem depend on felt experience. Then it will appear how Guidano-s philosophy and psychotherapy must turn towards a phenomenological approach. Finally, some references are given about Eugen Gendlin-s philosophy which could be considered as a radical way to confront these questions.
Abstract: This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive
models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency
data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of
three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and
monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized
volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of
heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock
indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the
global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance.
We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global
financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from
the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial
market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over
2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized
volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and
in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who
trade on monthly basis.
Abstract: The performances of small and medium enterprises
have stagnated in the last two decades. This has mainly been due to
the emergence of HIV / Aids. The disease has had a detrimental
effect on the general economy of the country leading to morbidity
and mortality of the Kenyan workforce in their primary age. The
present study sought to establish the economic impact of HIV / Aids
on the micro-enterprise development in Obunga slum – Kisumu, in
terms of production loss, increasing labor related cost and to establish
possible strategies to address the impact of HIV / Aids on microenterprises.
The study was necessitated by the observation that most
micro-enterprises in the slum are facing severe economic and social
crisis due to the impact of HIV / Aids, they get depleted and close
down within a short time due to death of skilled and experience
workforce. The study was carried out between June 2008 and June
2009 in Obunga slum. Data was subjected to computer aided
statistical analysis that included descriptive statistic, chi-squared and
ANOVA techniques. Chi-squared analysis on the micro-enterprise
owners opinion on the impact of HIV / Aids on depletion of microenterprise
compared to other diseases indicated high levels of the
negative effects of the disease at significance levels of P
Abstract: With the global financial crisis turning into what more
and more appears to be a prolonged “Great Recession", we are
witnessing marked reductions in remittance transfers to developing
countries with the likely possibility that overall flows will decline
even further in the near future. With countless families reliant on
remittance inflows as a source of income maintaining their economic
livelihood, a reduction would put many at risk of falling below or
deeper into poverty. Recognizing the importance of remittance
inflows as a lifeline to the poor, policy should aim to (1) reduce the
barriers to remit in both sending and receiving nations thus easing the
decline in transfers; (2) leverage the development impacts of
remittances; and (3) buffer vulnerable groups dependent on
remittance transfers as a source of livelihood through sound countercyclical
macroeconomic policies.
Abstract: The paper deals with results of a project “Interoperability Workplaces to Support Teaching of Security Management in a Computer Network". This project is focused on the perspectives and possibilities of "new approaches" to education, training and crisis communication of rescue teams in the Czech Republic. It means that common technologies considering new perspectives are used to educate selected members of crisis management. The main part concentrates on possibilities of application of new technology and computer-aided tools to education and training of Integrated Rescue System teams.This project uses the COST principle for the creation of specialized centers and for all communication between these workplaces.
Abstract: In the past 20 years the economy of the Czech
Republic has experienced substantial changes. In the 1990s the
development was affected by the transformation which sought to
establish the right conditions for privatization and creation of
elementary market relations. In the last decade the characteristic
elements such as private ownership and corresponding institutional
framework have been strengthened. This development was marked by
the accession of the Czech Republic to the EU. The Czech Republic
is striving to reduce the difference between its level of economic
development and the quality of institutional framework in
comparison with other developed countries. The process of finding
the adequate solutions has been hampered by the negative impact of
the world financial crisis on the Czech Republic and the standard of
living of its inhabitants. This contribution seeks to address the
question of whether and to which extent the economic development
of the transitive Czech economy is affected by the change in
behaviour of households and their tendency to consumption, i.e. in
the sense of reduction or increase in demand for goods and services.
It aims to verify whether the increasing trend of household
indebtedness and decreasing trend of saving pose a significant risk in
the Czech Republic. At a general level the analysis aims to contribute
to finding an answer to the question of whether the debt increase of
Czech households is connected to the risk of "eating through" the
borrowed money and whether Czech households risk falling into a
debt trap. In addition to household indebtedness risks in the Czech
Republic the analysis will focus on identification of specifics of the
transformation phase of the Czech economy in comparison with the
EU countries, or selected OECD countries.
Abstract: Mankind has entered into an extremely complex and
controversial stage of its development: the world is simultaneously
organized and chaoticized, globalized and localized, combined and
split. Analysts point out that globalization as a process of
strengthening economic, cultural, financial and other ties of states
cause many problems. In the economic sphere, it creates the danger
of growing gap between the states, in the sphere of politics it leads to
the weakening of political power and influence of nation-states.