Abstract: The purpose of this report is to suggest a new
methodology for the assessment of the comparative efficiency of the
reforms made in different countries by an integral index. We have
highlighted the reforms made in post-crisis period in 21 former
socialist countries.
The integral index describes the social-economic development
level. The integral index contains of six indexes: The Global
Competitiveness Index, Doing Business, The Corruption Perception,
The Index of Economic Freedom, The Human Development, and
The Democracy Index, which are reported by different international
organizations. With the help of our methodology we first summarized
the above-mentioned 6 indexes and attained 1 general index, besides,
our new method enables us to assess the comparative efficiency of the
reforms made in different countries by analyzing them.
The purpose is to reveal the opportunities and threats of socialeconomic
reforms in different directions.
Abstract: In current global economics the application of Business Continuity Management is the prerequisite for sustainable competitive advantage in an organization. Business Continuity Management is a managerial which identifies the potential impact of losses in an organization. The aim of this paper is to identify and critically evaluate the relative advantages and disadvantages of deploying Business Continuity Management in an organization on the basis of seven criteria. The strongest advantage of Business Continuity Management is in its capacity to identify a crisis situation and help the organization to flexibly and also to keep the critical knowledge within the organization. By contrast the main disadvantage is that establishing Business Continuity Management in an organization is time-consuming and its implementation as an integral part of the organizational culture present significant difficulties.
Abstract: Within the new world order, the term “crisis" is nowadays familiar to companies. Organizations are experiencing conditions which are surprising, uncertain, often adverse and usually unstable. The companies, who grasp the importance of transformation within the information age, have felt the need to develop modern methods to achieve the ability to thrive despite severe shocks. Through strategically managing human resource and developing appropriate elements of human resource system, companies can be assured for resolving the crisis. In this paper the role of HR system on resolving crisis has been evaluated. To help accomplish this, an insight on previous strategic HRM literature and an introduction to the elements and relationship within HR systems has been presented. It also reviews different attitude around resilience in literature. It continues by reviewing three elements central to developing an organization-s capacity for crisis resolving and it will demonstrate how designing proper elements of HR system can lead the organizations to possess the ability for passing through crisis. Finally it will evaluate an Iranian Insurance organization in case of one of the three central elements (specific cognitive ability) and observe how successful they were on developing an effective HR system to be ready for facing crisis.
Abstract: South Africa is facing a crisis with not being able to produce enough graduates in the scarce skills areas to sustain economic growth. The crisis is fuelled by a school system that does not produce enough potential students with Mathematics, Accounting and Science. Since the introduction of the new school curriculum in 2008, there is no longer an option to take pure maths on a standard grade level. Instead, only two mathematical subjects are offered: pure maths (which is on par with higher grade maths) and mathematical literacy. It is compulsory to take one or the other. As a result, lees student finishes Grade 12 with pure mathematics every year. This national problem needs urgent attention if South Africa is to make any headway in critical skills development as mathematics is a gateway to scarce skills professions. Higher education institutions initiated several initiatives in an attempt to address the above, including preparatory courses, bridging programmes and extended curricula with foundation provisions. In view of the above, and government policy directives to broaden access in the scarce skills areas to increase student throughput, foundation provision was introduced for Commerce and Information Technology programmes at the Vaal Triangle Campus (VTC) of North-West University (NWU) in 2010. Students enrolling for extended programmes do not comply with the minimum prerequisites for the normal programmes. The question then arises as to whether these programmes have the intended impact? This paper reports the results of a two year longitudinal study, tracking the first year academic achievement of the two cohorts of enrolments since 2010. The results provide valuable insight into the structuring of an extended programme and its potential impact.
Abstract: Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used
nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless
there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows
associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used
here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of
default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed
based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the
associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different
periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single
bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and
sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives
a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of
defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in
crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or
selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the
work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know
what and when to buy and sell.
Abstract: The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million people per day, increasing the consumption of energy. This has made the world to face the problem of energy crisis now days. In response to the energy crisis, the principles of renewable energy gained popularity. There are much advancement made in developing the wind and solar energy farms across the world. These energy farms are not enough to meet the energy requirement of world. This has attracted investors to procure new sources of energy to be substituted. Among these sources, extraction of energy from the waves is considered as best option. The world oceans contain enough energy to meet the requirement of world. Significant advancements in design and technology are being made to make waves as a continuous source of energy. One major hurdle in launching wave energy devices in a developing country like Pakistan is the initial cost. A simple, reliable and cost effective wave energy converter (WEC) is required to meet the nation-s energy need. This paper will present a novel design proposed by team SAS for harnessing wave energy. This paper has three major sections. The first section will give a brief and concise view of ocean wave creation, propagation and the energy carried by them. The second section will explain the designing of SAS-2. A gear chain mechanism is used for transferring the energy from the buoy to a rotary generator. The third section will explain the manufacturing of scaled down model for SAS-2 .Many modifications are made in the trouble shooting stage. The design of SAS-2 is simple and very less maintenance is required. SAS-2 is producing electricity at Clifton. The initial cost of SAS-2 is very low. This has proved SAS- 2 as one of the cost effective and reliable source of harnessing wave energy for developing countries.
Abstract: The article describes a case study on one of Czech
Republic-s manufacturing middle size enterprises (ME), where due to
the European financial crisis, production lines had to be redesigned
and optimized in order to minimize the total costs of the production
of goods. It is considered an optimization problem of minimizing the
total cost of the work load, according to the costs of the possible
locations of the workplaces, with an application of the Greedy
algorithm and a partial analogy to a Set Packing Problem. The
displacement of working tables in a company should be as a one-toone
monotone increasing function in order for the total costs of
production of the goods to be at minimum. We use a heuristic
approach with greedy algorithm for solving this linear optimization
problem, regardless the possible greediness which may appear and
we apply it in a Czech ME.
Abstract: Thanks to the interdisciplinary nature of crises, the
position of researchers in that field is rather difficult. Very often the
traditional methods of research cannot be applied there. The article is
aimed at the changes in crises research. It describes the substance of
individual changes and emphasizes the shift in research approaches
to the crisis.
Abstract: The article is about government programs and projects
and their description which are aimed at improving the socioeconomic
situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan. A brief historical
overview, as well as information about current socio-economic,
political and transitional contexts of the country are provided. Two
theories were described in the article to inform this descriptive study.
According to the United Nation's Development Reports for 2005 and
2011, the country's human development index (HDI) rose by several
points despite the socio-economic and political imbalances taking
place in the republic since it gained its independence in 1991. It is
stated in the article that government support programs are one of the
crucial factors that increase the population welfare which in its turn
may lead to reduction of social crisis processes in the country.
Abstract: Nowadays over-consumption of fossil energy in
buildings especially in residential buildings and also considering the
increase in populations, the crisis of energy shortage in a near future
is predictable. The recent performance of developed countries in
construction with the aim of decreasing fossil energies shows that
these countries have understood the incoming crisis and has taken
reasonable and basic actions in this regard. However, Iranian
architecture, with several thousands years of history, has acquired
and executed invaluable experiences in designing, adapting and
coordinating with the nature.
Architectural studies during the recent decades show that imitating
modern western architecture results in high energy wastage beside
the fact that it not reasonably adaptable and corresponded with the
habits and customs of people unlike the architecture in the past which
was compatible and adaptable with the climatic conditions and this
necessitates optimal using of renewable energies more than ever. This
paper studies problems of design, execution and living in today's
houses and reviews the characteristics of climatic elements paying
special attention to the performance of trombe wall and solar
greenhouse in traditional houses and offers some suggestions for
combining these two elements and a climatic strategy.
Abstract: The objectives of this research are to search the
management pattern of Bang Khonthi lodging entrepreneurs for
sufficient economy ways, to know the threat that affects this sector
and design fit arrangement model to sustain their business with
Samut Songkram style. What will happen if they do not use this
approach? Will they have a financial crisis? The data and information
are collected by informal discussions with 8 managers and 400
questionnaires. A mixed methods of both qualitative research and
quantitative research are used. Bent Flyvbjerg-s phronesis is utilized
for this analysis. Our research will prove that sufficient economy can
help small business firms to solve their problems. We think that the
results of our research will be a financial model to solve many
problems of the entrepreneurs and this way will can be a model for
other provinces of Thailand.
Abstract: Road Traffic Accidents are a major cause of disability and death throughout the world. The control of intelligent vehicles in order to reduce human error and boost ease congestion is not accomplished solely by the aid of human resources. The present article is an attempt to introduce an intelligent control system based on RFID technology. By the help of RFID technology, vehicles are connected to computerized systems, intelligent light poles and other available hardware along the way. In this project, intelligent control system is capable of tracking all vehicles, crisis management and control, traffic guidance and recording Driving offences along the highway.
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: Developing a stable early warning system (EWS)
model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging
task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method
which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the
aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN
performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in
our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a
consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods
which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural
network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The
analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic
indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method
with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other
methods.
Abstract: The article deals with the problems of political and
economic processes in Kazakhstan since independence in the context
of globalization. It analyzes the geopolitical situation and selfpositioning
processes in the world after the end of the "cold war". It
examines the problems of internal economization of the Republic for
20 years of independence. The authors argue that the reforms
proceeded in the economic sphere have brought ambiguous and
tangible results. Despite the difficult economic and political conditions
facing a world economical crisis the country has undergone
fundamental and radical transformations in the whole socio-economic
system
Abstract: To fight against the economic crisis, French
Government, like many others in Europe, has decided to give a boost
to high-speed line projects. This paper explores the implementation
and decision-making process in TGV projects, their evolutions,
especially since the Mediterranean TGV-line. This project was
probably the most controversial, but paradoxically represents today a
huge success for all the actors involved.
What kind of lessons we can learn from this experience? How to
evaluate the impact of this project on TGV-line planning? How can
we characterize this implementation and decision-making process
regards to the sustainability challenges?
The construction of Mediterranean TGV-line was the occasion to
make several innovations: to introduce more dialog into the decisionmaking
process, to take into account the environment, to introduce a
new project management and technological innovations. That-s why
this project appears today as an example in terms of integration of
sustainable development.
In this paper we examine the different kinds of innovations
developed in this project, by using concepts from sociology of
innovation to understand how these solutions emerged in a
controversial situation. Then we analyze the lessons which were
drawn from this decision-making process (in the immediacy and a
posteriori) and the way in which procedures evolved: creation of new
tools and devices (public consultation, project management...).
Finally we try to highlight the impact of this evolution on TGV
projects governance. In particular, new methods of implementation
and financing involve a reconfiguration of the system of actors. The
aim of this paper is to define the impact of this reconfiguration on
negotiations between stakeholders.
Abstract: The case study deals with the semi-quantitative risk
assessment of water resource earmarked for the emergency supply
of population with drinking water. The risk analysis has been based
on previously identified hazards/sensitivities of the elements
of hydrogeological structure and technological equipment of ground
water resource as well as on the assessment of the levels of hazard,
sensitivity and criticality of individual resource elements in the form
of point indexes. The following potential sources of hazard have
been considered: natural disasters caused by atmospheric and
geological changes, technological hazards, and environmental
burdens. The risk analysis has proved that the assessed risks are
acceptable and the water resource may be integrated into a crisis plan
of a given region.
Abstract: The increasing industrialization and motorization of the world has led to a steep rise for the demand of petroleum-based fuels. Petroleum-based fuels are obtained from limited reserves. These finite reserves are highly concentrated in certain regions of the world. Therefore, those countries not having these resources are facing energy/foreign exchange crisis, mainly due to the import of crude petroleum. Hence, it is necessary to look for alternative fuels which can be produced from resources available locally within the country such as alcohol, biodiesel, vegetable oils etc. Biodiesel is a renewable, domestically produced fuel that has been shown to reduce particulate, hydrocarbon, and carbon monoxide emissions from combustion. In the present study an experimental investigation on emission characteristic of a liquid burner system operating on several percentage of biodiesel and gas oil is carried out. Samples of exhaust gas are analysed with Testo 350 Xl. The results show that biodiesel can lower some pollutant such as CO, CO2 and particulate matter emissions while NOx emission would increase in comparison with gas oil. The results indicate there may be benefits to using biodiesel in industrial processes.
Abstract: The European countries that during the past two
decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board
arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of
corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open
discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict
exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the
transition process towards the monetary union membership. The
focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of
a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global
crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the
stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with
limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and
monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave
enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis
management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal
consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically
unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them
(Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their
ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime
with another.
The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable
environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and
are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments,
these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a
combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite
their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long
term influence that the measures had on the national economy.
Abstract: Due to the recovering global economy, enterprises are
increasingly focusing on logistics. Investing in logistic measures for
a production generates a large potential for achieving a good starting
point within a competitive field. Unlike during the global economic
crisis, enterprises are now challenged with investing available capital
to maximize profits. In order to be able to create an informed and
quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need an
adequate model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures
in production. The Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the
Institute for Production Systems (IFA) developed a Logistic
Information System which provides support in making decisions and
is designed specifically for the forging industry. The aim of a project
that has been applied for is to now transfer this process in order to
develop a universal approach to logistically and monetarily evaluate
measures in production.