Abstract: In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.
Abstract: In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.
Abstract: Thoughtful intelligence offers a sustainable position to enhance the influence of decision-makers. Thoughtful Intelligence implies the understanding to realize the impact of one’s thoughts, words and actions on the survival, dignity and development of the individuals, groups and nations. Thoughtful intelligence has received minimal consideration in the area of Decision Support Systems, with an end goal to evaluate the quantity of knowledge and its viability. This pattern degraded the imbibed contribution of thoughtful intelligence required for sustainable decision making. Given the concern, this paper concentrates on the question: How to present a model of Thoughtful Decision Support System (TDSS)? The aim of this paper is to appreciate the concepts of thoughtful intelligence and insinuate a Decision Support System based on thoughtful intelligence. Thoughtful intelligence includes three dynamic competencies: i) Realization about long term impacts of decisions that are made in a specific time and space, ii) A great sense of taking actions, iii) Intense interconnectivity with people and nature and; seven associate competencies, of Righteousness, Purposefulness, Understanding, Contemplation, Sincerity, Mindfulness, and Nurturing. The study utilizes two methods: Focused group discussion to count prevailing Decision Support Systems; 70% results of focus group discussions found six decision support systems and the positive inexistence of thoughtful intelligence among decision support systems regarding sustainable decision making. Delphi focused on defining thoughtful intelligence to model (TDSS). 65% results helped to conceptualize (definition and description) of thoughtful intelligence. TDSS is offered here as an addition in the decision making literature. The clients are top leaders.
Abstract: During the initial phase of cognitive development,
infants exhibit amazing abilities to generate novel behaviors in
unfamiliar situations, and explore actively to learn the best while
lacking extrinsic rewards from the environment. These abilities
set them apart from even the most advanced autonomous robots.
This work seeks to contribute to understand and replicate some of
these abilities. We propose the Bottom-up hiErarchical sequential
Learning algorithm with Constructivist pAradigm (BEL-CA) to
design agents capable of learning autonomously and continuously
through interactions. The algorithm implements no assumption about
the semantics of input and output data. It does not rely upon a
model of the world given a priori in the form of a set of states
and transitions as well. Besides, we propose a toolkit to analyze the
learning process at run time called GAIT (Generating and Analyzing
Interaction Traces). We use GAIT to report and explain the detailed
learning process and the structured behaviors that the agent has
learned on each decision making. We report an experiment in which
the agent learned to successfully interact with its environment and to
avoid unfavorable interactions using regularities discovered through
interaction.
Abstract: Higher Education is resisting the pull of technology, especially as this concerns the issuance and verification of degrees and certificates. It is widely known that education certificates are largely produced in paper form making them vulnerable to damage while holders of such certificates are dependent on the universities and other issuing organisations. QualiChain is an EU Horizon 2020 (H2020) research project aiming to transform and revolutionise the domain of public education and its ties with the job market by leveraging blockchain, analytics and decision support to develop a platform for the verification and sharing of education certificates. Blockchain plays an integral part in the QualiChain solution in providing a trustworthy environment to store, share and manage such accreditations. Under the context of this paper, three prominent blockchain platforms (Ethereum, Hyperledger Fabric, Hyperledger Iroha) were considered as a means of experimentation for creating a system with the basic functionalities that will be needed for trustworthy degree verification. The methodology and respective system developed and presented in this paper used Hyperledger Iroha and proved that this specific platform can be used to easily develop decentralize applications. Future papers will attempt to further experiment with other blockchain platforms and assess which has the best potential.
Abstract: This paper presents a taxonomy of non-technical skills, communicative intentions, and behavior for an individual acting as a medical coordinator. In medical emergency situations, a leader among the group is imperative to both patient health and team emotional and mental health. Situational Leadership is used to make clear and easy-to-follow guidelines for behavior depending on circumstantial factors. Low-level leadership behaviors belonging to two different styles, directive and supporting, are identified from literature and are included in the proposed taxonomy. The high-level information in the taxonomy consists of the necessary non-technical skills belonging to a medical coordinator: situation awareness, decision making, task management, and teamwork. Finally, communicative intentions, dimensions, and functions are included. Thus this work brings high-level and low-level information - medical non-technical skills, communication capabilities, and leadership behavior - into a single versatile taxonomy of behavior.
Abstract: We present a discrete game theoretical model with
homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In
this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete
and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully
characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash
equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all
individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can
change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the
model occurs.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.
Abstract: The Nigeria Police Force bears the constitutional mandate as the primary policing agency for the protection of life and property within Nigeria; however, the police have an historical ill-reputation for corruption, ineptitude and impunity. Using the institutional theory of police as the framework of analysis, the paper argues that the performance of the police in Nigeria mirrors the dominant political, social and economic institutions and the structural environment of the Nigerian state. The article puts in perspective the deliberate political decision to underfund the police, leaving officers of the force the extra task of foraging for funds to undertake the duty that the Nigeria state primarily exists for; the article further explores the nexus between corruption in the police in Nigeria and the issue of funding. The article finds that the Nigerian state, by deliberately under-funding the police, while expecting the agency to perform its duties, has indirectly sanctioned the corruption of the force and approved the cooption of the institution of police and policing for private use in Nigeria.
Abstract: This study evaluates the management of osteoporosis in a tertiary care government hospital in Malaysia. As the number of admitted patients having osteoporotic fractures is on the rise, osteoporotic medications are an increasing financial burden to government hospitals because they account for half of the orthopedic budget and expenditure. Comprehensive knowledge among practitioners is important to detect early and avoid this preventable disease and its serious complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, and practices in managing osteoporosis among practitioners in Hospital Tengku Ampuan Rahimah (HTAR), Klang. A questionnaire from an overseas study in managing osteoporosis among primary care physicians is adapted to Malaysia’s Clinical Practice Guideline of Osteoporosis 2012 (revised 2015) and international guidelines were distributed to all orthopedic practitioners in HTAR Klang (including surgeons, orthopedic medical officers), endocrinologists, rheumatologists and geriatricians. The participants were evaluated on their expertise in the diagnosis, prevention, treatment decision and medications for osteoporosis. Collected data were analyzed for all descriptive and statistical analyses as appropriate. All 45 participants responded to the questionnaire. Participants scored highest on expertise in prevention, followed by diagnosis, treatment decision and lastly, medication. Most practitioners stated that own-initiated continuing professional education from articles and books was the most effective way to update their knowledge, followed by attendance in conferences on osteoporosis. This study confirms the importance of comprehensive training and education regarding osteoporosis among tertiary care physicians and surgeons, predominantly in pharmacotherapy, to deliver wholesome care for osteoporotic patients.
Abstract: Automated vehicles (AVs) have the potential to enhance road capacity, improving road safety and traffic efficiency. Research and development on AVs have been going on for many years. However, when the complicated traffic rules and real situations interacted, AVs fail to make decisions on contradicting situations, and are not able to have control in all conditions due to highly dynamic driving scenarios. This limits AVs’ usage and restricts the full potential benefits that they can bring. Furthermore, regulations, infrastructure development, and public acceptance cannot keep up at the same pace as technology breakthroughs. Facing these challenges, this paper proposes automated vehicle traffic control tower (AVTCT) acting as a safe, efficient and integrated solution for AV control. It introduces a concept of AVTCT for control, management, decision-making, communication and interaction with various aspects in transportation. With the prototype demonstrations and simulations, AVTCT has the potential to overcome the control challenges with AVs and can facilitate AV reaching their full potential. Possible functionalities, benefits as well as challenges of AVTCT are discussed, which set the foundation for the conceptual model, simulation and real application of AVTCT.
Abstract: Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.
Abstract: Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.
Abstract: Since the discovery of the manuscript, mechanical methods for storing, transferring and using the information have evolved into digital methods over the time. In this process, libraries that are the center of the information have also become digitized and become accessible from anywhere and at any time in the world by taking on a structure that has no physical boundaries. In this context, some criteria for information obtained from digital libraries have become more important for users. This paper evaluates the user criteria from different perspectives that make a digital library more useful. The Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis-Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (SWARA-WASPAS) method is used with flexibility and easy calculation steps for the evaluation of digital library criteria. Three different digital libraries are evaluated by information technology experts according to five conflicting main criteria, ‘interface design’, ‘effects on users’, ‘services’, ‘user engagement’ and ‘context’. Finally, alternatives are ranked in descending order.
Abstract: In times of rapid globalization, the significance of cultural and architectural heritage is rising, as it is a key element to define the identity of a place, a city, even a country. Its preservation, conservation, and revitalization are everyone’s responsibility, and the public is growing more aware of that fact. The citizens are looking for a way to actively participate in the decision-making in projects regarding heritage sites. Public involvement in the planning process is not a new phenomenon, especially in Western countries. However, countries, such as the former communist states of Eastern Europe, have been less studied. Based on established theories, this paper analyses the level of citizens’ inclusion in projects regarding heritage preservation, using the example of the Tobacco City in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. As this case is exemplary for Bulgaria, it illustrates the current condition of public participation country-wise. At the same time, considering the former communist states have had a similar socio-economic and political development in the past several decades, it is possible to apply the conclusions to most of these countries with only slight variations.
Abstract: Engagement is one of the most important factors in determining successful outcomes and deep learning in students. Existing approaches to detect student engagement involve periodic human observations that are subject to inter-rater reliability. Our solution uses real-time multimodal multisensor data labeled by objective performance outcomes to infer the engagement of students. The study involves four students with a combined diagnosis of cerebral palsy and a learning disability who took part in a 3-month trial over 59 sessions. Multimodal multisensor data were collected while they participated in a continuous performance test. Eye gaze, electroencephalogram, body pose, and interaction data were used to create a model of student engagement through objective labeling from the continuous performance test outcomes. In order to achieve this, a type of continuous performance test is introduced, the Seek-X type. Nine features were extracted including high-level handpicked compound features. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, a series of different machine learning approaches were evaluated. Overall, the random forest classification approach achieved the best classification results. Using random forest, 93.3% classification for engagement and 42.9% accuracy for disengagement were achieved. We compared these results to outcomes from different models: AdaBoost, decision tree, k-Nearest Neighbor, naïve Bayes, neural network, and support vector machine. We showed that using a multisensor approach achieved higher accuracy than using features from any reduced set of sensors. We found that using high-level handpicked features can improve the classification accuracy in every sensor mode. Our approach is robust to both sensor fallout and occlusions. The single most important sensor feature to the classification of engagement and distraction was shown to be eye gaze. It has been shown that we can accurately predict the level of engagement of students with learning disabilities in a real-time approach that is not subject to inter-rater reliability, human observation or reliant on a single mode of sensor input. This will help teachers design interventions for a heterogeneous group of students, where teachers cannot possibly attend to each of their individual needs. Our approach can be used to identify those with the greatest learning challenges so that all students are supported to reach their full potential.
Abstract: This research attempts to evaluate the treatment provided by the Qatari media to the decision to allow Saudi women to drive, and then activate this decision after a few months, that is, within the time frame between September 26, 2017 until June 30, 2018. This is through asking several questions, including whether the political dispute between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has cast a shadow over this handling, and if these Qatari media handlings are used to criticize the Saudi regime for delaying this step. Here emerges one of the research hypotheses that says that the coverage did not have the required professionalism, due to the fact that the decision and its activation took place in light of the political stalemate between Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which requires testing the media framing and agenda theories to know to what extent they apply to this case. The research dealt with a sample of five Qatari media read in this sample: Al-Jazeera Net, The New Arab Newspaper, Al-Sharq Newspaper, The Arab Newspaper, and Al-Watan Newspaper. The results showed that most of the authors who covered the decision to allow Saudi women to drive a car did not achieve a balance in their writing, and that almost half of them did not have objectivity, and this indicates the proof of the hypothesis that there is a defect in the professional competence in covering the decision to allow Saudi women to drive cars by means of Qatari media, and the researcher attributes this result to the political position between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, in addition to the fact that the Arab media in most of them are characterized by a low ceiling of freedom, and most of them are identical in their position with the position of the regime’s official view.
Abstract: This paper presents a multi-objective optimal design of
a cascade control system for an underactuated mechanical system.
Cascade control structures usually include two control algorithms
(inner and outer). To design such a control system properly, the
following conflicting objectives should be considered at the same
time: 1) the inner closed-loop control must be faster than the outer
one, 2) the inner loop should fast reject any disturbance and prevent
it from propagating to the outer loop, 3) the controlled system
should be insensitive to measurement noise, and 4) the controlled
system should be driven by optimal energy. Such a control problem
can be formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem such
that the optimal trade-offs among these design goals are found.
To authors best knowledge, such a problem has not been studied
in multi-objective settings so far. In this work, an underactuated
mechanical system consisting of a rotary servo motor and a ball
and beam is used for the computer simulations, the setup parameters
of the inner and outer control systems are tuned by NSGA-II
(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm), and the dominancy
concept is used to find the optimal design points. The solution of
this problem is not a single optimal cascade control, but rather a set
of optimal cascade controllers (called Pareto set) which represent the
optimal trade-offs among the selected design criteria. The function
evaluation of the Pareto set is called the Pareto front. The solution
set is introduced to the decision-maker who can choose any point
to implement. The simulation results in terms of Pareto front and
time responses to external signals show the competing nature among
the design objectives. The presented study may become the basis for
multi-objective optimal design of multi-loop control systems.
Abstract: Vendor (supplier) selection is a group decision-making (GDM) process, in which, based on some predetermined criteria, the experts’ preferences are provided in order to rank and choose the most desirable suppliers. In the real business environment, our attitudes or our choices would be made in an uncertain and indecisive situation could not be expressed in a crisp framework. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) could handle such situations in the best way. VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. This method, which is used to determine the compromised feasible solution with respect to the conflicting criteria, introduces a multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of 'closeness' to the 'ideal solution'. Until now, there has been a little investigation of VIKOR with IFS, therefore we extended the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) VIKOR to solve vendor selection problem under IF GDM environment. The present study intends to develop an IF VIKOR method in a GDM situation. Therefore, a model is presented to calculate the criterion weights based on entropy measure. Then, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted geometric (IFWG) operator utilized to obtain the total decision matrix. In the next stage, an approach based on the positive idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (PIIFN) and negative idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (NIIFN) was developed. Finally, the application of the proposed method to solve a vendor selection problem illustrated.
Abstract: The paper will focus on management of heritage that integrates the local community, and argue towards an obligation to integrate this social aspect in heritage management. By broadening the understanding of heritage, a sustainable heritage management takes its departure in more than a continual conservation of the physicality of heritage. The social aspect, or the local community, is in many govern heritage management situations being overlooked and it is not managed through community based urban planning methods, e.g.: citizen-inclusion, a transparent process, informative and inviting initiatives, etc. Historical sites are often being described by embracing terms such as “ours” and “us”: “our history” and “a history that is part of us”. Heritage is not something static, it is a link between the life that has been lived in the historical frames, and the life that is defining it today. This view on heritage is rooted in the strive to ensure that heritage sites, besides securing the national historical interest, have a value for those people who are affected by it: living in it or visiting it. Antigua Guatemala is a UNESCO-defined heritage site and this site is being ‘threatened’ by tourism, habitation and recreation. In other words: ‘the use’ of the site is considered a threat of the preservation of the heritage. Contradictory the same types of use (tourism and habitation) can also be considered development ability, and perhaps even a sustainable management solution. ‘The use’ of heritage is interlinked with the perspective that heritage sites ought to have a value for people today. In other words, the heritage sites should be comprised of a contemporary substance. Heritage is entwined in its context of physical structures and the social layer. A synergy between the use of heritage and the knowledge about the heritage can generate a sustainable preservation solution. The paper will exemplify this symbiosis with different examples of a heritage management that is centred around a local community inclusion. The inclusive method is not new in architectural planning and it refers to a top-down and bottom-up balance in decision making. It can be endeavoured through designs of an inclusive nature. Catalyst architecture is a planning method that strives to move the process of design solutions into the public space. Through process-orientated designs, or catalyst designs, the community can gain an insight into the process or be invited to participate in the process. A balance between bottom-up and top-down in the development process of a heritage site can, in relation to management measures, be understood to generate a socially sustainable solution. The ownership and engagement that can be created among the local community, along with the use that ultimately can gain an economic benefit, can delegate the maintenance and preservation. Informative, inclusive and transparent planning methods can generate a heritage management that is long-term due to the collective understanding and effort. This method handles sustainable management on two levels: the current preservation necessities and the long-term management, while ensuring a value for people today.