Abstract: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease endemic in
many countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. The state of Punjab in
India shows cyclical and seasonal variation in dengue cases. The
Case Fatality Rate of Dengue has ranged from 0.6 to 1.0 in the past
years. The department has initiated review of the cases that have died
due to dengue in order to know the exact cause of the death in a case
of dengue. The study has been undertaken to know the other
associated co-morbidities and factors causing death in a case of
dengue. The study used the predesigned proforma on which the
records (medical and Lab) were recorded and reviewed by the expert
committee of the doctors. This study has revealed that cases of
dengue having co-morbidities have longer stay in hospital. Fluid
overload and co-morbidities have been found as major factors leading
to death, however, in a confirmed case of dengue hepatorenal
shutdown was found to be major cause of mortality. The data
obtained will help in sensitizing the treating physicians in order to
decrease the mortality due to dengue in future.
Abstract: With drug resistance becoming widespread in
Plasmodium falciparum infections, the development of the alternative
drugs is the desired strategy for prevention and cure of malaria. Three
drug targets were selected to screen promising drug molecules from
the GSK library of 13469 molecules. Using an in silico structure-based
drug designing approach, the differences in binding energies of
the substrate and inhibitor were exploited between target sites of
parasite and human to design a drug molecule against Plasmodium.
The docking studies have shown several promising molecules from
GSK library with more effective binding as compared to the already
known inhibitors for the drug targets. Though stronger interaction has
been shown by several molecules as compared to the reference, few
molecules have shown the potential as drug candidates though in
vitro studies are required to validate the results. In case of
thymidylate synthase-dihydrofolatereductase (TS-DHFR), three
compounds have shown promise for future studies as potential drugs.
Abstract: In order to find the particular interaction energy
between cylcloguanil and the amino acids surrounding the pocket of
wild type and quadruple mutant type PfDHFR enzymes, the MP2
method with basis set 6-31G(d,p) level of calculations was
performed. The obtained interaction energies found that Asp54 has
the strongest interaction energy to both wild type and mutant type of -
12.439 and -11.250 kcal/mol, respectively and three amino acids;
Asp54, Ile164 and Ile14 formed the H-bonding with cycloguanil
drug. Importantly, the mutation at Ser108Asn was the key important
of cycloguanil resistant with showing repulsive interaction energy.
Abstract: The incidences of dengue hemorrhagic disease (DHF)
over the long term exhibit a seasonal behavior. It has been
hypothesized that these behaviors are due to the seasonal climate
changes which in turn induce a seasonal variation in the incubation
period of the virus while it is developing the mosquito. The standard
dynamic analysis is applied for analysis the Susceptible-Exposed-
Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model which includes an annual
variation in the length of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The
presence of both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections is
allowed in the present model. We found that dynamic behavior of the
endemic state changes as the influence of the seasonal variation of
the EIP becomes stronger. As the influence is further increased, the
trajectory exhibits sustained oscillations when it leaves the chaotic
region.
Abstract: Dengue fever has become a major concern for health
authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries.
These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying
outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever
(DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main
causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper,
therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may
influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold,
firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the
relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of
explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for
explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most.
The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover,
percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum
temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and
Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The
results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from
July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of
daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly
influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their
occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be
significant only after 2 weeks.
Abstract: This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.
Abstract: This study investigated the seasonal prevalence of
Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae in three topographical areas
(i.e. mangrove, rice paddy and mountainous areas). Samples were
collected from 300 households in both wet and dry seasons in nine
districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat province. Ae. aegypti and Ae.
albopictus were found in 21 out of 29 types of water containers in
mangrove, rice paddy and mountainous areas. Ae. aegypti and Ae.
albopictus laid eggs in different container types depending on season
and topographical areas. Ae. aegypti larvae were found most in metal
box in mangrove and mountainous areas in wet season. Ae.
albopictus larvae were also found most in metal box in mangrove and
mountainous areas in both wet and dry seasons. All Ae. albopictus
larval indices were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in all three
topographical areas and both seasons. HI and BI did not differ in
three topographical areas but differed between Aedes sp. HI for both
Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in all three topographical areas in both
seasons were greater than 10 %, except Aedes aegypti in rice paddy
area in wet season. This indicated high risks of DHF transmission in
these areas.
Abstract: This study investigated the number of Aedes larvae,
the key breeding sites of Aedes sp., and the relationship between
climatic factors and the incidence of DHF in Samui Islands. We
conducted our questionnaire and larval surveys from randomly
selected 105 households in Samui Islands in July-September 2006.
Pearson-s correlation coefficient was used to explore the primary
association between the DHF incidence and all climatic factors.
Multiple stepwise regression technique was then used to fit the
statistical model. The results showed that the positive indoor
containers were small jars, cement tanks, and plastic tanks. The
positive outdoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, plastic
tanks, used cans, tires, plastic bottles, discarded objects, pot saucers,
plant pots, and areca husks. All Ae. albopictus larval indices (i.e., CI,
HI, and BI) were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in this area.
These larval indices were higher than WHO standard. This indicated
a high risk of DHF transmission at Samui Islands. The multiple
stepwise regression model was y = –288.80 + 11.024xmean temp. The
mean temperature was positively associated with the DHF incidence
in this area.