Abstract: The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast
model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included
6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data
processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast
models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study
for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of
2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with
confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the
analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of
GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount
of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the
optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with
confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic
scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP
growth.
Abstract: Numerical analysis naturally finds applications in all
fields of engineering and the physical sciences, but in the
21st century, the life sciences and even the arts have adopted
elements of scientific computations. The numerical data analysis
became key process in research and development of all the fields [6].
In this paper we have made an attempt to analyze the specified
numerical patterns with reference to the association rule mining
techniques with minimum confidence and minimum support mining
criteria. The extracted rules and analyzed results are graphically
demonstrated. Association rules are a simple but very useful form of
data mining that describe the probabilistic co-occurrence of certain
events within a database [7]. They were originally designed to
analyze market-basket data, in which the likelihood of items being
purchased together within the same transactions are analyzed.
Abstract: The linear SEF (Spectral Edge Frequency) parameter
and spectrum analysis method can not reflect the non-linear of EEG.
This method can not contribute to acquire real time analysis and obtain
a high confidence in the clinic due to low discrimination. To solve the
problems, the development of a new index is carried out using the
bispectrum analyzing the EEG(electroencephalogram) including the
non-linear characteristic. After analyzing the bispectrum of the 2
dimension, the most significant power spectrum density peaks appeared abundantly at the specific area in awakening and anesthesia state. These points are utilized to create the new index since many
peaks appeared at the specific area in the frequency coordinate. The measured range of an index was 0-100. An index is 20-50 at an anesthesia, while the index is 90-60 at the awake. New index could afford to effectively discriminate the awake and anesthesia state.
Abstract: This article provides partial evaluation index and its
standard of sports aerobics, including the following 12 indexes: health
vitality, coordination, flexibility, accuracy, pace, endurance, elasticity,
self-confidence, form, control, uniformity and musicality. The
three-layer BP artificial neural network model including input layer,
hidden layer and output layer is established. The result shows that the
model can well reflect the non-linear relationship between the
performance of 12 indexes and the overall performance. The predicted
value of each sample is very close to the true value, with a relative
error fluctuating around of 5%, and the network training is successful.
It shows that BP network has high prediction accuracy and good
generalization capacity if being applied in sports aerobics performance
evaluation after effective training.
Abstract: Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.
Abstract: The double exponential model (DEM), or Laplace
distribution, is used in various disciplines. However, there are issues
related to the construction of confidence intervals (CI), when using
the distribution.In this paper, the properties of DEM are considered
with intention of constructing CI based on simulated data. The
analysis of pivotal equations for the models here in comparisons with
pivotal equations for normal distribution are performed, and the
results obtained from simulation data are presented.
Abstract: The present work analyses different parameters of pressure die casting to minimize the casting defects. Pressure diecasting is usually applied for casting of aluminium alloys. Good surface finish with required tolerances and dimensional accuracy can be achieved by optimization of controllable process parameters such as solidification time, molten temperature, filling time, injection pressure and plunger velocity. Moreover, by selection of optimum process parameters the pressure die casting defects such as porosity, insufficient spread of molten material, flash etc. are also minimized. Therefore, a pressure die casting component, carburetor housing of aluminium alloy (Al2Si2O5) has been considered. The effects of selected process parameters on casting defects and subsequent setting of parameters with the levels have been accomplished by Taguchi-s parameter design approach. The experiments have been performed as per the combination of levels of different process parameters suggested by L18 orthogonal array. Analyses of variance have been performed for mean and signal-to-noise ratio to estimate the percent contribution of different process parameters. Confidence interval has also been estimated for 95% consistency level and three conformational experiments have been performed to validate the optimum level of different parameters. Overall 2.352% reduction in defects has been observed with the help of suggested optimum process parameters.
Abstract: Nagaland, the 16th state of India in order of
statehood, is situated between 25° 6' and 27° 4' latitude north and
between 93º 20' E and 95º 15' E longitude of equator in the North
Eastern part of the India. Endowed with varied topography, soil and
agro climatic conditions it is known for its potentiality to grow all
most all kinds of horticultural crops. Pineapple being grown since
long organically by default is one of the most promising crops of the
state with emphasis being laid for commercialization by the
government of Nagaland. In light of commercialization, globalization
and scope of setting small-scale industries, a research study was
undertaken to examine the socio-economic and personal
characteristics, entrepreneurial characteristics and attitude of the
pineapple growers towards improved package of practices of
pineapple cultivation. The study was conducted in Medziphema
block of Dimapur district of the Nagaland state of India following ex
post facto research design. Ninety pineapple growers were selected
from four different villages of Medziphema block based on
proportionate random selection procedure. Findings of the study
revealed that majority of the respondents had medium level of
entrepreneurial characteristics in terms of knowledge level, risk
orientation, self confidence, management orientation, farm decision
making ability and leadership ability and most of them had
favourable attitude towards improved package of practices of
pineapple cultivation. The variables age, education, farm size, risk
orientation, management orientation and sources of information
utilized were found important to influence the attitude of the
respondents. The study revealed that favourable attitude and
entrepreneurial characteristics of the pineapple cultivators might be
harnessed for increased production of pineapple in the state thereby
bringing socio economic upliftment of the marginal and small-scale
farmers.
Abstract: Innovation is being view from four areas of
innovation, product, service, technology, and marketing. Whereas
customer loyalty is composed of customer expectation, perceived
quality, perceived value, corporate image, customer satisfaction,
customer trust/confidence, customer commitment, customer
complaint, and customer loyalty. This study aimed to investigate the
influence of innovation factors to customer loyalty to GSM in the
telecom companies where use of products and services. Structural
Equation Modeling (SEM) using to analyze innovation factors. It was
found the factor of innovation have significant influence on customer
loyalty.
Abstract: Achievement motivation is believed to promote
giftedness attracting people to invest in many programs to adopt
gifted students providing them with challenging activities.
Intellectual giftedness is founded on the fluid intelligence and
extends to more specific abilities through the growth and inputs from
the achievement motivation. Acknowledging the roles played by the
motivation in the development of giftedness leads to an effective
nurturing of gifted individuals. However, no study has investigated
the direct and indirect effects of the achievement motivation and
fluid intelligence on intellectual giftedness. Thus, this study
investigated the contribution of motivation factors to giftedness
development by conducting tests of fluid intelligence using Cattell
Culture Fair Test (CCFT) and analytical abilities using culture
reduced test items covering problem solving, pattern recognition,
audio-logic, audio-matrices, and artificial language, and self report
questionnaire for the motivational factors. A number of 180 highscoring
students were selected using CCFT from a leading university
in Malaysia. Structural equation modeling was employed using Amos
V.16 to determine the direct and indirect effects of achievement
motivation factors (self confidence, success, perseverance,
competition, autonomy, responsibility, ambition, and locus of
control) on the intellectual giftedness. The findings showed that the
hypothesized model fitted the data, supporting the model postulates
and showed significant and strong direct and indirect effects of the
motivation and fluid intelligence on the intellectual giftedness.
Abstract: Biological reactions of individuals of a testing animal
to toxic substance are unique and can be used as an indication of the
existing of toxic substance. However, to distinguish such phenomenon
need a very complicate system and even more complicate to analyze
data in 3 dimensional. In this paper, a system to evaluate in vitro
biological activities to acute toxicity of stochastic self-affine
non-stationary signal of 3D goldfish swimming by using fractal
analysis is introduced. Regular digital camcorders are utilized by
proposed algorithm 3DCCPC to effectively capture and construct 3D
movements of the fish. A Critical Exponent Method (CEM) has been
adopted as a fractal estimator. The hypothesis was that the swimming
of goldfish to acute toxic would show the fractal property which
related to the toxic concentration. The experimental results supported
the hypothesis by showing that the swimming of goldfish under the
different toxic concentration has fractal properties. It also shows that
the fractal dimension of the swimming related to the pH value of FD Ôëê
0.26pH + 0.05. With the proposed system, the fish is allowed to swim
freely in all direction to react to the toxic. In addition, the trajectories
are precisely evaluated by fractal analysis with critical exponent
method and hence the results exhibit with much higher degree of
confidence.
Abstract: A spectrophotometric method was developed for simultaneous quantification of pseudoephedrine hydrochloride (PSE) triprolidine hydrochloride (TRI) using second derivative method (zero-crossing technique). The second derivative amplitudes of PSE and TRI were measured at 271 and 321 nm, respectively. The calibration curves were linear in the range of 200 to 1,000 g/ml for PSE and 10 to 50 g/ml for TRI. The method was validated for specificity, accuracy, precision, limit of detection and limit of quantitation. The proposed method was applied to the assaying and dissolution of PSE and TRI in commercial tablets without any chemical separation. The results were compared with those obtained by the official USP31 method and statistical tests showed that there is no significant between the methods at 95% confidence level. The proposed method is simple, rapid and suitable for the routine quality control application. KeywordsTriprolidine, Pseudoephedrine, Derivative spectrophotometry, Dissolution testing.
Abstract: The main focus of the work was concerned with hydrodynamic and thermal analysis of the plate heat exchanger channel with corrugation patterns suggested to be triangular, sinusoidal, and square corrugation. This study was to numerically model and validate the triangular corrugated channel with dimensions/parameters taken from open literature, and then model/analyze both sinusoidal, and square corrugated channel referred to the triangular model. Initially, 2D modeling with local extensive analysis for triangular corrugated channel was carried out. By that, all local pressure drop, wall shear stress, friction factor, static temperature, heat flux, Nusselt number, and surface heat coefficient, were analyzed to interpret the hydrodynamic and thermal phenomena occurred in the flow. Furthermore, in order to facilitate confidence in this model, a comparison between the values predicted, and experimental results taken from literature for almost the same case, was done. Moreover, a holistic numerical study for sinusoidal and square channels together with global comparisons with triangular corrugation under the same condition, were handled. Later, a comparison between electric, and fluid cooling through varying the boundary condition was achieved. The constant wall temperature and constant wall heat flux boundary conditions were employed, and the different resulted Nusselt numbers as a consequence were justified. The results obtained can be used to come up with an optimal design, a 'compromise' between heat transfer and pressure drop.
Abstract: This paper presents an interval-based multi-attribute
decision making (MADM) approach in support of the decision
process with imprecise information. The proposed decision
methodology is based on the model of linear additive utility function
but extends the problem formulation with the measure of composite
utility variance. A sample study concerning with the evaluation of
electric generation expansion strategies is provided showing how the
imprecise data may affect the choice toward the best solution and
how a set of alternatives, acceptable to the decision maker (DM),
may be identified with certain confidence.
Abstract: In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based
intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two
parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large
weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather
variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables"
whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex"
situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available
to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were
based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty.
The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of
Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary
information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques
were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree
and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the
continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested
for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the
discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target
variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of
reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the
former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper
contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach
which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the
complete database and create predictive models for the same 12
target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and
the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive
reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target
variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner
predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since
the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10%
of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing
with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.
Abstract: One major issue that is regularly cited as a block to
the widespread use of online assessments in eLearning, is that of the
authentication of the student and the level of confidence that an
assessor can have that the assessment was actually completed by that
student. Currently, this issue is either ignored, in which case
confidence in the assessment and any ensuing qualification is
damaged, or else assessments are conducted at central, controlled
locations at specified times, losing the benefits of the distributed
nature of the learning programme. Particularly as we move towards
constructivist models of learning, with intentions towards achieving
heutagogic learning environments, the benefits of a properly
managed online assessment system are clear. Here we discuss some
of the approaches that could be adopted to address these issues,
looking at the use of existing security and biometric techniques,
combined with some novel behavioural elements. These approaches
offer the opportunity to validate the student on accessing an
assessment, on submission, and also during the actual production of
the assessment. These techniques are currently under development in
the DECADE project, and future work will evaluate and report their
use..
Abstract: This paper provides a key driver-based conceptual framework that can be used to improve a firm-s success in commercializing technology and in new product innovation resulting from collaboration with other organizations through strategic alliances. Based on a qualitative study using an interview approach, strategic alliances of entrepreneurs in the food processing industry in Thailand are explored. This paper describes factors affecting decisions to collaborate through alliances. It identifies four issues: maintaining the efficiency of the value chain for production capability, adapting to present and future competition, careful assessment of value of outcomes, and management of innovation. We consider five driving factors: resource orientation, assessment of risk, business opportunity, sharing of benefits and confidence in alliance partners. These factors will be of interest to entrepreneurs and policy makers with regard to further understanding of the direction of business strategies.
Abstract: 53 college students answered questions regarding the circumstances in which they first heard about the news of Wenchuan earthquake or the news of their acceptance to college which took place approximately one year ago, and answered again two years later. The number of details recalled about their circumstances for both events was high and didn-t decline two years later. However, consistency in reported details over two years was low. Participants were more likely to construct central (e.g., Where were you?) than peripheral information (What were you wearing?), and the confidence of the central information was higher than peripheral information, which indicated that they constructed more when they were more confident.
Abstract: The main objective of this study was to determine if a
minimal increase in road light level (luminance) could lead to
improved driving performance among older adults. Older, middleaged
and younger adults were tested in a driving simulator following
vision and cognitive screening. Comparisons were made for the
performance of simulated night driving under two road light
conditions (0.6 and 2.5 cd/m2). At each light level, the effects of self
reported night driving avoidance were examined along with the
vision/cognitive performance. It was found that increasing road light
level from 0.6 cd/m2 to 2.5 cd/m2 resulted in improved recognition of
signage on straight highway segments. The improvement depends on
different driver-related factors such as vision and cognitive abilities,
and confidence. On curved road sections, the results showed that
driver-s performance worsened. It is concluded that while increasing
road lighting may be helpful to older adults especially for sign
recognition, it may also result in increased driving confidence and
thus reduced attention in some driving situations.
Abstract: This paper proposes a new optimization techniques
for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and
product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous
linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint
chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent
uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach
is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their
equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence
levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to
effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results
indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant
under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the
constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and
85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations
cases.