The Contribution of Edgeworth, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Data

Edgeworth Approximation, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Simulations have a considerable impact on the achieving certain results related to different problems taken into study. In our paper, we have treated a financial case related to the effect that have the components of a Cash-Flow of one of the most successful businesses in the world, as the financial activity, operational activity and investing activity to the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the three-months period. To have a better view of this case we have created a Vector Autoregression model, and after that we have generated the impulse responses in the terms of Asymptotic Analysis (Edgeworth Approximation), Monte Carlo Simulations and Residual Bootstrap based on the standard errors of every series created. The generated results consisted of the common tendencies for the three methods applied, that consequently verified the advantage of the three methods in the optimization of the model that contains many variants.

The Profit Trend of Cosmetics Products Using Bootstrap Edgeworth Approximation

Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Systematics of Water Lilies (Genus Nymphaea L.) Using 18S rDNA Sequences

Water lily (Nymphaea L.) is the largest genus of Nymphaeaceae. This family is composed of six genera (Nuphar, Ondinea, Euryale, Victoria, Barclaya, Nymphaea). Its members are nearly worldwide in tropical and temperate regions. The classification of some species in Nymphaea is ambiguous due to high variation in leaf and flower parts such as leaf margin, stamen appendage. Therefore, the phylogenetic relationships based on 18S rDNA were constructed to delimit this genus. DNAs of 52 specimens belonging to water lily family were extracted using modified conventional method containing cetyltrimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB). The results showed that the amplified fragment is about 1600 base pairs in size. After analysis, the aligned sequences presented 9.36% for variable characters comprising 2.66% of parsimonious informative sites and 6.70% of singleton sites. Moreover, there are 6 regions of 1-2 base(s) for insertion/deletion. The phylogenetic trees based on maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood with high bootstrap support indicated that genus Nymphaea was a paraphyletic group because of Ondinea, Victoria and Euryale disruption. Within genus Nymphaea, subgenus Nymphaea is a basal lineage group which cooperated with Euryale and Victoria. The other four subgenera, namely Lotos, Hydrocallis, Brachyceras and Anecphya were included the same large clade which Ondinea was placed within Anecphya clade due to geographical sharing.

On the Bootstrap P-Value Method in Identifying out of Control Signals in Multivariate Control Chart

In any production process, every product is aimed to attain a certain standard, but the presence of assignable cause of variability affects our process, thereby leading to low quality of product. The ability to identify and remove this type of variability reduces its overall effect, thereby improving the quality of the product. In case of a univariate control chart signal, it is easy to detect the problem and give a solution since it is related to a single quality characteristic. However, the problems involved in the use of multivariate control chart are the violation of multivariate normal assumption and the difficulty in identifying the quality characteristic(s) that resulted in the out of control signals. The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of non-parametric control chart (the bootstrap approach) for obtaining control limit to overcome the problem of multivariate distributional assumption and the p-value method for detecting out of control signals. Results from a performance study show that the proposed bootstrap method enables the setting of control limit that can enhance the detection of out of control signals when compared, while the p-value method also enhanced in identifying out of control variables.

Analytical Comparison of Conventional Algorithms with Vedic Algorithm for Digital Multiplier

In today’s scenario, the complexity of digital signal processing (DSP) applications and various microcontroller architectures have been increasing to such an extent that the traditional approaches to multiplier design in most processors are becoming outdated for being comparatively slow. Modern processing applications require suitable pipelined approaches, and therefore, algorithms that are friendlier with pipelined architectures. Traditional algorithms like Wallace Tree, Radix-4 Booth, Radix-8 Booth, Dadda architectures have been proven to be comparatively slow for pipelined architectures. These architectures, therefore, need to be optimized or combined with other architectures amongst them to enhance its performances and to be made suitable for pipelined hardware/architectures. Recently, Vedic algorithm mathematically has proven to be efficient by appearing to be less complex and with fewer steps for its output establishment and have assumed renewed importance. This paper describes and shows how the Vedic algorithm can be better suited for pipelined architectures and also can be combined with traditional architectures and algorithms for enhancing its ability even further. In this paper, we also established that for complex applications on DSP and other microcontroller architectures, using Vedic approach for multiplication proves to be the best available and efficient option.

CPU Architecture Based on Static Hardware Scheduler Engine and Multiple Pipeline Registers

The development of CPUs and of real-time systems based on them made it possible to use time at increasingly low resolutions. Together with the scheduling methods and algorithms, time organizing has been improved so as to respond positively to the need for optimization and to the way in which the CPU is used. This presentation contains both a detailed theoretical description and the results obtained from research on improving the performances of the nMPRA (Multi Pipeline Register Architecture) processor by implementing specific functions in hardware. The proposed CPU architecture has been developed, simulated and validated by using the FPGA Virtex-7 circuit, via a SoC project. Although the nMPRA processor hardware structure with five pipeline stages is very complex, the present paper presents and analyzes the tests dedicated to the implementation of the CPU and of the memory on-chip for instructions and data. In order to practically implement and test the entire SoC project, various tests have been performed. These tests have been performed in order to verify the drivers for peripherals and the boot module named Bootloader.

Asymmetrical Informative Estimation for Macroeconomic Model: Special Case in the Tourism Sector of Thailand

This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Malware Detection in Mobile Devices by Analyzing Sequences of System Calls

With the increase in popularity of mobile devices, new and varied forms of malware have emerged. Consequently, the organizations for cyberdefense have echoed the need to deploy more effective defensive schemes adapted to the challenges posed by these recent monitoring environments. In order to contribute to their development, this paper presents a malware detection strategy for mobile devices based on sequence alignment algorithms. Unlike the previous proposals, only the system calls performed during the startup of applications are studied. In this way, it is possible to efficiently study in depth, the sequences of system calls executed by the applications just downloaded from app stores, and initialize them in a secure and isolated environment. As demonstrated in the performed experimentation, most of the analyzed malicious activities were successfully identified in their boot processes.

Dicotyledon Weed Quantification Algorithm for Selective Herbicide Application in Maize Crops: Statistical Evaluation of the Potential Herbicide Savings

This work contributes a statistical model and simulation framework yielding the best estimate possible for the potential herbicide reduction when using the MoDiCoVi algorithm all the while requiring a efficacy comparable to conventional spraying. In June 2013 a maize field located in Denmark were seeded. The field was divided into parcels which was assigned to one of two main groups: 1) Control, consisting of subgroups of no spray and full dose spraty; 2) MoDiCoVi algorithm subdivided into five different leaf cover thresholds for spray activation. In addition approximately 25% of the parcels were seeded with additional weeds perpendicular to the maize rows. In total 299 parcels were randomly assigned with the 28 different treatment combinations. In the statistical analysis, bootstrapping was used for balancing the number of replicates. The achieved potential herbicide savings was found to be 70% to 95% depending on the initial weed coverage. However additional field trials covering more seasons and locations are needed to verify the generalisation of these results. There is a potential for further herbicide savings as the time interval between the first and second spraying session was not long enough for the weeds to turn yellow, instead they only stagnated in growth.

Run-Time Customisation of Soft-Core CPUs on Field Programmable Gate Array

The use of customised soft-core processors in which instructions can be integrated into a system in application hardware is increasing in the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) field. Specifically, the partial run-time reconfiguration of FPGAs in specialised processors for a particular domain can be very beneficial. In this report, the design and implementation for the customisation of a soft-core MIPS processor using an FPGA and partial reconfiguration (PR) of FPGA technology will be addressed to achieve efficient resource use. This can be achieved using a PR design flow that helps the design fit into a smaller device. Moreover, the impact of static power consumption could be reduced due to runtime reconfiguration. This will be done by configurable custom instructions implemented in the hardware as an extension on the MIPS CPU. The aim of this project is to investigate the PR of FPGAs for run-time adaptations of the instruction set of a soft-core CPU, including the integration of custom instructions and the exploration of the potential to use the MultiBoot feature available in Xilinx FPGAs to carry out the PR process. The system will be evaluated and tested on a Nexus 3 development board featuring a Xilinx Spartran-6 FPGA. The system will be able to load reconfigurable custom instructions dynamically into user programs with the help of the trap handler when the custom instruction is called by the MIPS CPU. The results of this experiment demonstrate that custom instructions in hardware can speed up a certain function and many instructions can be saved when compared to a software implementation of the same function. Implementing custom instructions in hardware is perfectly possible and worth exploring.

Finite Element Analysis of Ball-Joint Boots under Environmental and Endurance Tests

Ball joints support and guide certain automotive parts that move relative to the frame of the vehicle. Such ball joints are covered and protected from dust, mud, and other interfering materials by ball-joint boots made of rubber—a flexible and near-incompressible material. The boots may experience twisting and bending deformations because of the motion of the joint arm. Thus, environmental and endurance tests of ball-joint boots apply both bending and twisting deformations. In this study, environmental and endurance testing was simulated via the finite element method performed by using a commercial software package. The ranges of principal stress and principal strain values that are known to directly affect the fatigue lives of the parts were sought. By defining these ranges, the number of iterative tests and modifications of the materials and dimensions of the boot can be decreased. Therefore, instead of performing actual part tests, manufacturers can perform standard fatigue tests in trials of different materials by applying only the defined range of stress or strain values.

Actual Nursing Competency among Nurses in Hospital in Vietnam

Background: Competency of nurses is vital to safe nursing practice as well as essential component to drive quality of nursing services. There exists little up to date information concerning actual competency among Vietnamese nurses. Purposes: The purpose of this study is to identify the actual nursing competency among nurses in clinical settings in Vietnam. Methods: A qualitative study, ethnographic method, comprised of the participant-observation, in-depth interview, and focus group discussion with multidisciplinary groups of nurses employing in Cho Ray hospital, Vietnam, managers/administrators, nurse teachers, medical doctors, other health care providers, patients and family members which derived from purposeful sampling technique. Content analysis was used for data analysis. Results: Five essential themes of nursing competencies among nurses were identified include (1) knowledge, (2) skills, (3) attitude and value-based nursing practice, (4) legal and ethical competencies, and (5) transcultural competencies. Basic and advanced knowledge were identified as further two dimensions of knowledge. There were five sub themes identified as further dimensions of skills include technical skills, communication skills, organizing and management skills, teamwork and interrelationship, and critical thinking skills. Conclusions: The findings from this study provide valuable information and understanding of the actual competency among nurses in clinical settings in Vietnam. It is expected that this understanding would assist in developing a guide to nursing education and training, nursing practice and relevant policy regulation used for promoting nursing competency among nurses.

Approximate Confidence Interval for Effect Size Base on Bootstrap Resampling Method

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Design of Personal Job Recommendation Framework on Smartphone Platform

Recently, Job Recommender Systems have gained much attention in industries since they solve the problem of information overload on the recruiting website. Therefore, we proposed Extended Personalized Job System that has the capability of providing the appropriate jobs for job seeker and recommending some suitable information for them using Data Mining Techniques and Dynamic User Profile. On the other hands, company can also interact to the system for publishing and updating job information. This system have emerged and supported various platforms such as web application and android mobile application. In this paper, User profiles, Implicit User Action, User Feedback, and Clustering Techniques in WEKA libraries were applied and implemented. In additions, open source tools like Yii Web Application Framework, Bootstrap Front End Framework and Android Mobile Technology were also applied.

The Classification Performance in Parametric and Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis for a Class- Unbalanced Data of Diabetes Risk Groups

The problems arising from unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many researchers have found that the performance of existing classifiers tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k-nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is a method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. In this study, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest in investigating misclassification error rates for classimbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Data from a project maintaining healthy conditions for 599 employees of a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The employees were divided into three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data including the variables of diabetes risk group, age, gender, blood glucose, and BMI were analyzed and bootstrapped for 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of the misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples showed nonnormality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. Searching the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) and (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k=3 or k=4 and the defined prior probabilities of non-risk: risk: diabetic as 0.90: 0.05:0.05 or 0.80:0.10:0.10 gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Early Warning System of Financial Distress Based On Credit Cycle Index

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Big Data Analytics and Data Security in the Cloud via Fully Homomorphic Encryption

This paper describes the problem of building secure computational services for encrypted information in the Cloud Computing without decrypting the encrypted data; therefore, it meets the yearning of computational encryption algorithmic aspiration model that could enhance the security of big data for privacy, confidentiality, availability of the users. The cryptographic model applied for the computational process of the encrypted data is the Fully Homomorphic Encryption Scheme. We contribute a theoretical presentations in a high-level computational processes that are based on number theory and algebra that can easily be integrated and leveraged in the Cloud computing with detail theoretic mathematical concepts to the fully homomorphic encryption models. This contribution enhances the full implementation of big data analytics based cryptographic security algorithm.

Air Pollution and Respiratory-Related Restricted Activity Days in Tunisia

This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

The Use of Degradation Measures to Design Reliability Test Plans

With short production development times, there is an increased need to demonstrate product reliability relatively quickly with minimal testing. In such cases there may be few if any observed failures. Thus it may be difficult to assess reliability using the traditional reliability test plans that measure only time (or cycles) to failure. For many components, degradation measures will contain important information about performance and reliability. These measures can be used to design a minimal test plan, in terms of number of units placed on test and duration of the test, necessary to demonstrate a reliability goal. In this work we present a case study involving an electronic component subject to degradation. The data, consisting of 42 degradation paths of cycles to failure, are first used to estimate a reliability function. Bootstrapping techniques are then used to perform power studies and develop a minimal reliability test plan for future production of this component. 

Evaluation of Transfer Capability Considering Uncertainties of System Operating Condition and System Cascading Collapse

Over the past few decades, power system industry in many developing and developed countries has gone through a restructuring process of the industry where they are moving towards deregulated power industry. This situation will lead to competition among the generation and distribution companies to provide quality and efficient production of electric energy, which will reduce the price of electricity. Therefore it is important to obtain an accurate value of the available transfer capability (ATC) and transmission reliability margin (TRM) in order to ensure the effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of uncertainties in the system. In this paper, the TRM and ATC is determined by taking into consideration the uncertainties of the system operating condition and system cascading collapse by applying the bootstrap technique. A case study of the IEEE RTS-79 is employed to verify the robustness of the technique proposed in the determination of TRM and ATC.