Abstract: Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.
Abstract: Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to propose a general
framework for storing, analyzing, and extracting knowledge from
two-dimensional echocardiographic images, color Doppler images,
non-medical images, and general data sets. A number of high
performance data mining algorithms have been used to carry out this
task. Our framework encompasses four layers namely physical
storage, object identification, knowledge discovery, user level.
Techniques such as active contour model to identify the cardiac
chambers, pixel classification to segment the color Doppler echo
image, universal model for image retrieval, Bayesian method for
classification, parallel algorithms for image segmentation, etc., were
employed. Using the feature vector database that have been
efficiently constructed, one can perform various data mining tasks
like clustering, classification, etc. with efficient algorithms along
with image mining given a query image. All these facilities are
included in the framework that is supported by state-of-the-art user
interface (UI). The algorithms were tested with actual patient data
and Coral image database and the results show that their performance
is better than the results reported already.
Abstract: This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.
Abstract: A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.
Abstract: This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and
temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is
used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A
conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the
spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the
covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data
have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of
Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and
temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are
positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means
of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria
maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are
in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4,
97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82).
According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better
performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without
temporal terms.
Abstract: This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.
Abstract: One of the difficulties of the vibration-based damage identification methods is the nonuniqueness of the results of damage identification. The different damage locations and severity may cause the identical response signal, which is even more severe for detection of the multiple damage. This paper proposes a new strategy for damage detection to avoid this nonuniqueness. This strategy firstly determines the approximates damage area based on the statistical pattern recognition method using the dynamic strain signal measured by the distributed fiber Bragg grating, and then accurately evaluates the damage information based on the Bayesian model updating method using the experimental modal data. The stochastic simulation method is then used to compute the high-dimensional integral in the Bayesian problem. Finally, an experiment of the plate structure, simulating one part of mechanical structure, is used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.
Abstract: Software developed for a specific customer under contract
typically undergoes a period of testing by the customer before
acceptance. This is known as user acceptance testing and the process
can reveal both defects in the system and requests for changes to
the product. This paper uses nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to
model a real user acceptance data set from a recently developed
system. In particular a split Poisson process is shown to provide an
excellent fit to the data. The paper explains how this model can be
used to aid the allocation of resources through the accurate prediction
of occurrences both during the acceptance testing phase and before
this activity begins.
Abstract: Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral
disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions,
especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and
including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or
chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease.
Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector
surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been
recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control
strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for
relative risk estimation is important as a good model will
subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of
this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based
initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called
Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest
applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model.
This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which
we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an
extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model.
Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and
maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a
better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The
Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the
problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain
regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and
there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in
adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many
researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the
risk.
Abstract: Studies in neuroscience suggest that both global and
local feature information are crucial for perception and recognition of
faces. It is widely believed that local feature is less sensitive to
variations caused by illumination, expression and illumination. In
this paper, we target at designing and learning local features for face
recognition. We designed three types of local features. They are
semi-global feature, local patch feature and tangent shape feature.
The designing of semi-global feature aims at taking advantage of
global-like feature and meanwhile avoiding suppressing AdaBoost
algorithm in boosting weak classifies established from small local
patches. The designing of local patch feature targets at automatically
selecting discriminative features, and is thus different with traditional
ways, in which local patches are usually selected manually to cover
the salient facial components. Also, shape feature is considered in
this paper for frontal view face recognition. These features are
selected and combined under the framework of boosting algorithm
and cascade structure. The experimental results demonstrate that the
proposed approach outperforms the standard eigenface method and
Bayesian method. Moreover, the selected local features and
observations in the experiments are enlightening to researches in
local feature design in face recognition.