Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Feature Vector Fusion for Image Based Human Age Estimation

Human faces, as important visual signals, express a significant amount of nonverbal info for usage in human-to-human communication. Age, specifically, is more significant among these properties. Human age estimation using facial image analysis as an automated method which has numerous potential real‐world applications. In this paper, an automated age estimation framework is presented. Support Vector Regression (SVR) strategy is utilized to investigate age prediction. This paper depicts a feature extraction taking into account Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), which can be utilized for robust face recognition framework. It applies GLCM operation to remove the face's features images and Active Appearance Models (AAMs) to assess the human age based on image. A fused feature technique and SVR with GA optimization are proposed to lessen the error in age estimation.

Heart Rate Variability Analysis for Early Stage Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death

In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.

Large Eddy Simulation of Hydrogen Deflagration in Open Space and Vented Enclosure

This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.

Dry Relaxation Shrinkage Prediction of Bordeaux Fiber Using a Feed Forward Neural

The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Analysis of DNA from Fired Cartridge Casings

DNA analysis has been widely accepted as providing valuable evidence concerning the identity of the source of biological traces. Our work has showed that DNA samples can survive on cartridges even after firing. The study also raised the possibility of determining other information such as the age of the donor. Such information may be invaluable in certain cases where spent cartridges from automatic weapons are left behind at the scene of a crime. In spite of the nature of touch evidence and exposure to high chamber temperatures during shooting, we were still capable to retrieve enough DNA for profile typing. In order to estimate age of contributor, DNA methylation levels were analyzed using EpiTect system for retrieved DNA. However, results were not conclusive, due to low amount of input DNA.

Early Warning System of Financial Distress Based On Credit Cycle Index

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Ray Tracing Modified 3D Image Method Simulation of Picocellular Propagation Channel Environment

In this paper, we present the simulation of the propagation characteristics of the picocellular propagation channel environment. The first aim has been to find a correct description of the environment for received wave. The result of the first investigations is that the environment of the indoor wave significantly changes as we change the electric parameters of material constructions. A modified 3D ray tracing image method tool has been utilized for the coverage prediction. A detailed analysis of the dependence of the indoor wave on the wideband characteristics of the channel: root mean square (RMS) delay spread characteristics and Mean excess delay, is also investigated.

Improving Air Temperature Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Vibration Induced Fatigue Assessment in Vehicle Development Process

Improvement in CAE methods has an important role for shortening of the vehicle product development time. It is provided that validation of the design and improvements in terms of durability can be done without hardware prototype production. In recent years, several different methods have been developed in order to investigate fatigue damage of the vehicle. The intended goal among these methods is prediction of fatigue damage in a short time with reduced costs. This study developed a new fatigue damage prediction method in the automotive sector using power spectrum densities of accelerations. This study also confirmed that the weak region in vehicle can be easily detected with the method developed in this study which results were compared with conventional method.

Prediction of Optimum Cutting Parameters to obtain Desired Surface in Finish Pass end Milling of Aluminium Alloy with Carbide Tool using Artificial Neural Network

End milling process is one of the common metal cutting operations used for machining parts in manufacturing industry. It is usually performed at the final stage in manufacturing a product and surface roughness of the produced job plays an important role. In general, the surface roughness affects wear resistance, ductility, tensile, fatigue strength, etc., for machined parts and cannot be neglected in design. In the present work an experimental investigation of end milling of aluminium alloy with carbide tool is carried out and the effect of different cutting parameters on the response are studied with three-dimensional surface plots. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish the relationship between the surface roughness and the input cutting parameters (i.e., spindle speed, feed, and depth of cut). The Matlab ANN toolbox works on feed forward back propagation algorithm is used for modeling purpose. 3-12-1 network structure having minimum average prediction error found as best network architecture for predicting surface roughness value. The network predicts surface roughness for unseen data and found that the result/prediction is better. For desired surface finish of the component to be produced there are many different combination of cutting parameters are available. The optimum cutting parameter for obtaining desired surface finish, to maximize tool life is predicted. The methodology is demonstrated, number of problems are solved and algorithm is coded in Matlab®.

Drainage Prediction for Dam using Fuzzy Support Vector Regression

The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.