Fuzzy Ideology based Long Term Load Forecasting

Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).

RADAR Imaging to Develop an Enhanced Fog Vision System for Collision Avoidance

The scattering effect of light in fog improves the difficulty in visibility thus introducing disturbances in transport facilities in urban or industrial areas causing fatal accidents or public harassments, therefore, developing an enhanced fog vision system with radio wave to improvise the way outs of these severe problems is really a big challenge for researchers. Series of experimental studies already been done and more are in progress to know the weather effect on radio frequencies for different ranges. According to Rayleigh scattering Law, the propagating wavelength should be greater than the diameter of the particle present in the penetrating medium. Direct wave RF signal thus have high chance of failure to work in such weather for detection of any object. Therefore an extensive study was required to find suitable region in the RF band that can help us in detecting objects with proper shape. This paper produces some results on object detection using 912 MHz band with successful detection of the persistence of any object coming under the trajectory of a vehicle navigating in indoor and outdoor environment. The developed images are finally transformed to video signal to enable continuous monitoring.

Flexible Workplaces Fostering Knowledge Workers Informal Learning: The Flexible Office Case

Organizations face challenges supporting knowledge workers due to their particular requirements for an environment supportive of their self-guided learning activities which are important to increase their productivity and to develop creative solutions to non-routine problems. Face-to-face knowledge sharing remains crucial in spite of a large number of knowledge management instruments that aim at supporting a more impersonal transfer of knowledge. This paper first describes the main criteria for a conceptual and technical solution targeted at flexible management of office space that aims at assigning those knowledge workers to the same room that are most likely to thrive when being brought together thus enhancing their knowledge work productivity. The paper reflects on lessons learned from the implementation and operation of such a solution in a project-focused organization and derives several implications for future extensions that target to foster problem solving, informal learning and personal development.

A Study of Gas Metal Arc Welding Affecting Mechanical Properties of Austenitic Stainless Steel AISI 304

The objective of this research was to study influence parameters affecting to mechanical property of austenitic stainless steel grade 304 (AISI 304) with Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW). The research was applying factorial design experiment, which have following interested parameters: welding current at 80, 90, and 100 Amps, welding speeds at 250, 300, and 350 mm/min, and shield gas of 75% Ar + 25% CO2, 70% Ar + 25% CO2 + 5% O2 and 69.5% Ar + 25% CO2 + 5% O2 + 0.5% He gas. The study was done in following aspects: ultimate tensile strength and elongation. A research study of ultimate tensile strength found that main factor effect, which had the highest strength to AISI 304 welding was shield gas of 70% Ar + 25% CO2 + 5% O2 at average of 954.81 N/mm2. Result of the highest elongation was showed significantly different at interaction effect between shield gas of 69.5%Ar+25%CO2+5%O2+.5%He and welding speed at 250 mm/min at 47.94%.

Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall frequency of one hour rainfall duration is more than 100-year frequency which exceeds the flood detention standard of 20-year frequency for the flood detention pond, the flood peak duration of flood detention pond is 1.7 hours at most even though the flood detention pond with maximum drainage potential about 15.0 m3/s of pumping system is constructed. If the rainfall peak current is more than maximum drainage potential, the flood peak duration of flood detention pond is about 1.9 hours at most. The flood detention pond is the key factor of stable drainage control and flood prevention. The critical factors of flood disaster is not only rainfall mass, but also rainfall frequency of heavy storm in different rainfall duration and flood detention frequency of flood detention system.

The Effect of Laser Surface Melting on the Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Low Carbon Steel

The paper presents the results of microhardness and microstructure of low carbon steel surface melted using carbon dioxide laser with a wavelength of 10.6μm and a maximum output power of 2000W. The processing parameters such as the laser power, and the scanning rate were investigated in this study. After surface melting two distinct regions formed corresponding to the melted zone MZ, and the heat affected zone HAZ. The laser melted region displayed a cellular fine structures while the HAZ displayed martensite or bainite structure. At different processing parameters, the original microstructure of this steel (Ferrite+Pearlite) has been transformed to new phases of martensitic and bainitic structures. The fine structure and the high microhardness are evidence of the high cooling rates which follow the laser melting. The melting pool and the transformed microstructure in the laser surface melted region of carbon steel showed clear dependence on laser power and scanning rate.

CFD Analysis of a Centrifugal Fan for Performance Enhancement using Converging Boundary Layer Suction Slots

Generally flow behavior in centrifugal fan is observed to be in a state of instability with flow separation zones on suction surface as well as near the front shroud. Overall performance of the diffusion process in a centrifugal fan could be enhanced by judiciously introducing the boundary layer suction slots. With easy accessibility of CFD as an analytical tool, an extensive numerical whole field analysis of the effect of boundary layer suction slots in discrete regions of suspected separation points is possible. This paper attempts to explore the effect of boundary layer suction slots corresponding to various geometrical locations on the impeller with converging configurations for the slots. The analysis shows that the converging suction slots located on the impeller blade about 25% from the trailing edge, significantly improves the static pressure recovery across the fan. Also it is found that Slots provided at a radial distance of about 12% from the leading and trailing edges marginally improve the static pressure recovery across the fan.

Numerical Solution for Elliptical Crack with Developing Cusps Subject to Shear Loading

This paper study the behavior of the solution at the crack edges for an elliptical crack with developing cusps, Ω in the plane elasticity subjected to shear loading. The problem of finding the resulting shear stress can be formulated as a hypersingular integral equation over Ω and it is then transformed into a similar equation over a circular region, D, using conformal mapping. An appropriate collocation points are chosen on the region D to reduce the hypersingular integral equation into a system of linear equations with (2N+1)(N+1) unknown coefficients, which will later be used in the determination of shear stress intensity factors and maximum shear stress intensity. Numerical solution for the considered problem are compared with the existing asymptotic solution, and displayed graphically. Our results give a very good agreement to the existing asymptotic solutions.

Conceptual Investigation of Short-Columns and Masonary Infill Frames Effect in the Earthquakes

This paper highlights the importance of the selection of the building-s wall material,and the shortcomings of the most commonly used framed structures with masonry infills .The objective of this study is investigating the behavior of infill walls as structural components in existing structures.Structural infill walls are very important in structural behavior under earthquake effects. Structural capacity under the effect of earthquake,displacement and relative story displacement are affected by the structural irregularities .The presence of nonstructural masonry infill walls can modify extensively the global seismic behavior of framed buildings .The stability and integrity of reinforced concrete frames are enhanced by masonry infill walls. Masonry infill walls alter displacement and base shear of the frame as well. Short columns have great importance during earthquakes,because their failure may lead to additional structural failures and result in total building collapse. Consequently the effects of short columns are considered in this study.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Duplex Stainless steel for Anchor Bolt Application

Most buildings have been using anchor bolts commonly for installing outdoor advertising structures. Anchor bolts of common carbon steel are widely used and often installed indiscriminately by inadequate installation standards. In the area where strong winds frequently blow, falling accidents of outdoor advertising structures can occur and cause a serious disaster, which is very dangerous and to be prevented. In this regard, the development of high-performance anchor bolts is urgently required. In the present study, 25Cr-8Ni-1.5Si-1Mn-0.4C alloy was produced by traditional vacuum induction melting (VIM) for the application of anchor bolt. The alloy composition is revealed as a duplex microstructure from thermodynamic phase analysis by FactSage® and confirmed by metallographic experiment. Addition of Nitrogen to the alloy was found to reduce the ferritic phase domain and significantly increase the hardness and the tensile strength. Microstructure observation revealed mixed structure of austenite and ferrite with fine carbide distributed along the grain and phase boundaries.

Effect of Secondary Curvature on Mixing Characteristic within Constant Circular Tubes

In this study, numerical simulations on laminar flow in sinusoidal wavy shaped tubes were conducted for mean Reynolds number of 250, which is in the range of physiological flow-rate and investigated flow structures, pressure distribution and particle trajectories both in steady and periodic inflow conditions. For extensive comparisons, various wave lengths and amplitudes of sine function for geometry of tube models were employed. The results showed that small amplitude secondary curvature has significant influence on the nature of flow patterns and particle mixing mechanism. This implies that characterizing accurate geometry is essential in accurate predicting of in vivo hemodynamics and may motivate further study on any possibility of reflection of secondary flow on vascular remodeling and pathophysiology.

A Probability based Pair Extension Method in Protein 2-DE Gel Image Analysis

The two-dimensional gel electrophoresis method (2-DE) is widely used in Proteomics to separate thousands of proteins in a sample. By comparing the protein expression levels of proteins in a normal sample with those in a diseased one, it is possible to identify a meaningful set of marker proteins for the targeted disease. The major shortcomings of this approach involve inherent noises and irregular geometric distortions of spots observed in 2-DE images. Various experimental conditions can be the major causes of these problems. In the protein analysis of samples, these problems eventually lead to incorrect conclusions. In order to minimize the influence of these problems, this paper proposes a partition based pair extension method that performs spot-matching on a set of gel images multiple times and segregates more reliable mapping results which can improve the accuracy of gel image analysis. The improved accuracy of the proposed method is analyzed through various experiments on real 2-DE images of human liver tissues.

Perfect Plastic Deformation of a Circular Thin Bronze Plate due to the Growth and Collapse of a Vapour Bubble

Dynamics of a vapour bubble generated due to a high local energy input near a circular thin bronze plate in the absence of the buoyancy forces is numerically investigated in this paper. The bubble is generated near a thin bronze plate and during the growth and collapse of the bubble, it deforms the nearby plate. The Boundary Integral Equation Method is employed for numerical simulation of the problem. The fluid is assumed to be incompressible, irrotational and inviscid and the surface tension on the bubble boundary is neglected. Therefore the fluid flow around the vapour bubble can be assumed as a potential flow. Furthermore, the thin bronze plate is assumed to have perfectly plastic behaviour. Results show that the displacement of the circular thin bronze plate has considerable effect on the dynamics of its nearby vapour bubble. It is found that by decreasing the thickness of the thin bronze plate, the growth and collapse rate of the bubble becomes higher and consequently the lifetime of the bubble becomes shorter.

Robust Sensorless Speed Control of Induction Motor with DTFC and Fuzzy Speed Regulator

Recent developments in Soft computing techniques, power electronic switches and low-cost computational hardware have made it possible to design and implement sophisticated control strategies for sensorless speed control of AC motor drives. Such an attempt has been made in this work, for Sensorless Speed Control of Induction Motor (IM) by means of Direct Torque Fuzzy Control (DTFC), PI-type fuzzy speed regulator and MRAS speed estimator strategy, which is absolutely nonlinear in its nature. Direct torque control is known to produce quick and robust response in AC drive system. However, during steady state, torque, flux and current ripple occurs. So, the performance of conventional DTC with PI speed regulator can be improved by implementing fuzzy logic techniques. Certain important issues in design including the space vector modulated (SVM) 3-Ф voltage source inverter, DTFC design, generation of reference torque using PI-type fuzzy speed regulator and sensor less speed estimator have been resolved. The proposed scheme is validated through extensive numerical simulations on MATLAB. The simulated results indicate the sensor less speed control of IM with DTFC and PI-type fuzzy speed regulator provides satisfactory high dynamic and static performance compare to conventional DTC with PI speed regulator.

Performance Evaluation of AOMDV-PAMAC Protocols for Ad Hoc Networks

Power consumption of nodes in ad hoc networks is a critical issue as they predominantly operate on batteries. In order to improve the lifetime of an ad hoc network, all the nodes must be utilized evenly and the power required for connections must be minimized. In this project a link layer algorithm known as Power Aware medium Access Control (PAMAC) protocol is proposed which enables the network layer to select a route with minimum total power requirement among the possible routes between a source and a destination provided all nodes in the routes have battery capacity above a threshold. When the battery capacity goes below a predefined threshold, routes going through these nodes will be avoided and these nodes will act only as source and destination. Further, the first few nodes whose battery power drained to the set threshold value are pushed to the exterior part of the network and the nodes in the exterior are brought to the interior. Since less total power is required to forward packets for each connection. The network layer protocol AOMDV is basically an extension to the AODV routing protocol. AOMDV is designed to form multiple routes to the destination and it also avoid the loop formation so that it reduces the unnecessary congestion to the channel. In this project, the performance of AOMDV is evaluated using PAMAC as a MAC layer protocol and the average power consumption, throughput and average end to end delay of the network are calculated and the results are compared with that of the other network layer protocol AODV.

Covering-based Rough sets Based on the Refinement of Covering-element

Covering-based rough sets is an extension of rough sets and it is based on a covering instead of a partition of the universe. Therefore it is more powerful in describing some practical problems than rough sets. However, by extending the rough sets, covering-based rough sets can increase the roughness of each model in recognizing objects. How to obtain better approximations from the models of a covering-based rough sets is an important issue. In this paper, two concepts, determinate elements and indeterminate elements in a universe, are proposed and given precise definitions respectively. This research makes a reasonable refinement of the covering-element from a new viewpoint. And the refinement may generate better approximations of covering-based rough sets models. To prove the theory above, it is applied to eight major coveringbased rough sets models which are adapted from other literature. The result is, in all these models, the lower approximation increases effectively. Correspondingly, in all models, the upper approximation decreases with exceptions of two models in some special situations. Therefore, the roughness of recognizing objects is reduced. This research provides a new approach to the study and application of covering-based rough sets.

Does the Adoption of IFRS Influence Earnings Management towards Small Positive Profits? Evidence from Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on the frequency of earnings managements towards small positive profits. We focus on two emerging markets IFRS adopters: South Africa and Turkey. We tested our logistic regression using appropriate panelestimation techniques over a sample of 330 South African and 210 Turkish firm-year observations over the period 2002-2008. Our results document that mandatory adoption of IFRS is not associated with a reduction in earnings management towards small positive profits in emerging markets. These results contradict most of the previous findings of the studies conducted in developed countries. Based on the legal system factor, we compare the intensity of earnings management between a code law country (Turkey) and a common law country (South Africa) over the pre and post-adoption periods. Our findings show that the frequency of such earnings management practice increases significantly for the code law country.

Reliable One-Dimensional Model of Two-Dimensional Insulated Oval Duct Considering Heat Radiation

The reliable results of an insulated oval duct considering heat radiation are obtained basing on accurate oval perimeter obtained by integral method as well as one-dimensional Plane Wedge Thermal Resistance (PWTR) model. This is an extension study of former paper of insulated oval duct neglecting heat radiation. It is found that in the practical situations with long-short-axes ratio a/b 4.5% while t/R2

X-ray Pulse Profiles of PSR J0538+2817

This paper reports our analysis of 163 ks observations of PSR J0538+2817 with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE).The pulse profiles, detected up to 60 keV, show a single peak asin the case for radio frequency. The profile is well described by one Gaussians function with full width at half maximum (FWHM) 0.04794. We compared the difference of arrival time between radio and X-ray pulse profiles for the first time. It turns out that the phase of radio emits precede the X-ray by 8.7 ± 4.5 ms. Furthermore we obtained the pulse profiles in the energy ranges of 2.29-6.18 keV, 6.18-12.63 keV and 12.63-17.36 keV. The intensity of pulses decreases with the increasing energy range. We discuss the emission geometry in our work.

Intelligent Audio Watermarking using Genetic Algorithm in DWT Domain

In this paper, an innovative watermarking scheme for audio signal based on genetic algorithms (GA) in the discrete wavelet transforms is proposed. It is robust against watermarking attacks, which are commonly employed in literature. In addition, the watermarked image quality is also considered. We employ GA for the optimal localization and intensity of watermark. The watermark detection process can be performed without using the original audio signal. The experimental results demonstrate that watermark is inaudible and robust to many digital signal processing, such as cropping, low pass filter, additive noise.