Abstract: This paper proposes a new decision making structure
to determine the appropriate product delivery strategy for different products in a manufacturing system among make-to-stock, make-toorder,
and hybrid strategy. Given product delivery strategies for all products in the manufacturing system, the position of the Order
Penetrating Point (OPP) can be located regarding the delivery strategies among which location of OPP in hybrid strategy is a
cumbersome task. In this regard, we employ analytic network process, because there are varieties of interrelated driving factors
involved in choosing the right location. Moreover, the proposed structure is augmented with fuzzy sets theory in order to cope with
the uncertainty of judgments. Finally, applicability of the proposed structure is proven in practice through a real industrial case company.
The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed decision making structure in order partitioning and OPP location.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to assess the value of Second Life among post-secondary instructors with experience using Second Life as an educational tool. Using Everett Rogers-s diffusion of innovations theory, survey respondents (N = 162), were divided into three adopter categories: innovators, early adopters and the early majority. Respondents were from 15 countries and 25 academic disciplines, indicating the considerable potential this innovation has to be adopted across many different borders and in many areas of academe. Nearly 94% of respondents said they plan to use Second Life again as an educational tool. However, no significant differences were found in instructors- levels of satisfaction with Second Life as an educational tool or their perceived effect on student learning across adopter categories. On the other hand, instructors who conducted class fully in Second Life were significantly more satisfied than those who used Second Life as only a small supplement to a real-world class. Overall, personal interest factors, rather than interpersonal communication factors, most influenced respondents- decision to adopt Second Life as an educational tool. In light of these findings, theoretical implications are discussed and practical suggestions are provided.
Abstract: Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified
as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in
Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in
Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and
demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session
with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension
expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between
these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System
Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how
demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by
using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension
expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of
pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and
policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.
Abstract: The main objective of our study is to collect data
about the profile of the asthmatic patients in Assam and thereby have
a comprehensive knowledge of the factors influencing the asthmatic
patients of the state and their medication pattern. We developed a
search strategy to find any publication about the community based
survey asthma related and used. These to search the MEDLINE
(1996 to current literature) CINAHL DOAJ pubmed databases using
the key phrases, Asthma, Respiratory disorders, Drug therapy of
Asthma, database decision support system and asthma. The
appropriate literature was printed out from the online source and
library (Journal) source. The study was conducted through a set of
structured and non-structured questionnaires targeted on the
asthmatic patients belonging to the rural and urban areas of Assam,
during the month of Dec 2006 to July 2007, 138 cases were studied
in Gauwathi Medical College & Hospital located in Bhangagarh,
Assam in India. The demographic characteristics a factor in 138
patients with asthma with allergic rhinitis (cases) gives the detail
profile of asthmatic patient-s distribution of Assam as classified on
the basis of age and sex. It is evident from the study that male
populations (66%) are more prone to asthma as compared to the
females (34%).Another striking features that emerged from this
survey is the maximum prevalence of asthma in the age group of 20-
30 years followed by infants belonging to the age group of 7 (0.05%)
0-10years among both male and female populations of Assam. The
high incidence of asthma in the age group of 20-30 years may
probably be due to the allergy arising out of sudden exposure to dust
and pollen which the children face while playing and going to the
school. The rural females in the age group of 30-40 years are more
prone to asthma than urban females in the same age group may be
due to sex differentiation among the tribal population of the state.
Pharmacists should educate the asthmatics how to use inhalers
considering growing menace of asthma in the state. Safer drugs
should be produced in the form of aerosol so that easy administration
by the asthmatic patients and physicians of the state is possible for
curing asthma. The health centers should be more equipped with the
medicines to cure asthma in the state like Assam.
Abstract: This paper presents a novel method for remaining
useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF)
network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a
modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take
into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is
needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to
represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The
estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an
incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF
network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the
case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining
useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance
decision and resource planning.
Abstract: A Negotiation Support is required on a value-based decision to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. This study demonstrates a process of negotiation support model for selection of a building system from value-based design perspective. The perspective is based on comparison of function and cost of a building system. Multi criteria decision techniques were applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. A satisfying option game theory are applied to the criteria of value-based decision which are LCC (life cycle cost) and function based FAST. The results demonstrate a negotiation process to select priorities of a building system. The support model can be extended to an automated negotiation by combining value based decision method, group decision and negotiation support.
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.
Abstract: In the way of growing and developing firms especially
high-tech firms, on many occasions manager of firm is mainly involved in solving problems of his business and decision making about executive activities of the firm, while besides executive
measures, attention to planning of firm's success and growth way and
application of long experience and sagacity in designing business model are vital and necessary success in a business is achieved as a
result of different factors, one of the most important of them is designing and performing an optimal business model at the beginning
of the firm's work. This model is determining the limit of profitability
achieved by innovation and gained value added. Therefore, business
model is the process of connecting innovation environment and
technology with economic environment and business and is important
for succeeding modern businesses considering their traits.
Abstract: This paper suggests ranking alternatives under fuzzy
MCDM (multiple criteria decision making) via an centroid based
ranking approach, where criteria are classified to benefit qualitative,
benefit quantitative and cost quantitative ones. The ratings of
alternatives versus qualitative criteria and the importance weights of
all criteria are assessed in linguistic values represented by fuzzy
numbers. The membership function for the final fuzzy evaluation
value of each alternative can be developed through α-cuts and
interval arithmetic of fuzzy numbers. The distance between the
original point and the relative centroid is applied to defuzzify the
final fuzzy evaluation values in order to rank alternatives. Finally a
numerical example demonstrates the computation procedure of the
proposed model.
Abstract: A new distance-adjusted approach is proposed in
which static square contours are defined around an estimated
symbol in a QAM constellation, which create regions that
correspond to fixed step sizes and weighting factors. As a
result, the equalizer tap adjustment consists of a linearly
weighted sum of adaptation criteria that is scaled by a variable
step size. This approach is the basis of two new algorithms: the
Variable step size Square Contour Algorithm (VSCA) and the
Variable step size Square Contour Decision-Directed
Algorithm (VSDA). The proposed schemes are compared with
existing blind equalization algorithms in the SCA family in
terms of convergence speed, constellation eye opening and
residual ISI suppression. Simulation results for 64-QAM
signaling over empirically derived microwave radio channels
confirm the efficacy of the proposed algorithms. An RTL
implementation of the blind adaptive equalizer based on the
proposed schemes is presented and the system is configured to
operate in VSCA error signal mode, for square QAM signals
up to 64-QAM.
Abstract: Advertising is one of the important marketing
strategies and the choice of media is an important aspect of
effectiveness of advertising media. The two most popular advertising
media, TV and web media are highly effective in creating successful
advertisements as they influence the purchase decision of the
viewers. Although TV and web are electronic media, they are unique
in their features and traits of advertising. Hence, the present study
attempts to analyze the influence of these two media towards buying
behavior of the viewers. The two media are analyzed separately to
determine its level of influence towards buying behavior and finally a
comparative analysis of these media is attempted to find the
difference in their level of influence.
Abstract: Many supervised induction algorithms require discrete
data, even while real data often comes in a discrete
and continuous formats. Quality discretization of continuous
attributes is an important problem that has effects on speed,
accuracy and understandability of the induction models. Usually,
discretization and other types of statistical processes are applied
to subsets of the population as the entire population is practically
inaccessible. For this reason we argue that the discretization
performed on a sample of the population is only an estimate of
the entire population. Most of the existing discretization methods,
partition the attribute range into two or several intervals using
a single or a set of cut points. In this paper, we introduce a
technique by using resampling (such as bootstrap) to generate
a set of candidate discretization points and thus, improving the
discretization quality by providing a better estimation towards
the entire population. Thus, the goal of this paper is to observe
whether the resampling technique can lead to better discretization
points, which opens up a new paradigm to construction of
soft decision trees.
Abstract: In this paper a combined feature selection method is
proposed which takes advantages of sample domain filtering,
resampling and feature subset evaluation methods to reduce
dimensions of huge datasets and select reliable features. This method
utilizes both feature space and sample domain to improve the process
of feature selection and uses a combination of Chi squared with
Consistency attribute evaluation methods to seek reliable features.
This method consists of two phases. The first phase filters and
resamples the sample domain and the second phase adopts a hybrid
procedure to find the optimal feature space by applying Chi squared,
Consistency subset evaluation methods and genetic search.
Experiments on various sized datasets from UCI Repository of
Machine Learning databases show that the performance of five
classifiers (Naïve Bayes, Logistic, Multilayer Perceptron, Best First
Decision Tree and JRIP) improves simultaneously and the
classification error for these classifiers decreases considerably. The
experiments also show that this method outperforms other feature
selection methods.
Abstract: This paper introduces an automatic voice classification
system for the diagnosis of individual constitution based on Sasang
Constitutional Medicine (SCM) in Traditional Korean Medicine
(TKM). For the developing of this algorithm, we used the voices of
309 female speakers and extracted a total of 134 speech features from
the voice data consisting of 5 sustained vowels and one sentence. The
classification system, based on a rule-based algorithm that is derived
from a non parametric statistical method, presents 3 types of decisions:
reserved, positive and negative decisions. In conclusion, 71.5% of the
voice data were diagnosed by this system, of which 47.7% were
correct positive decisions and 69.7% were correct negative decisions.
Abstract: Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.
Abstract: Recommender systems are usually regarded as an
important marketing tool in the e-commerce. They use important
information about users to facilitate accurate recommendation. The
information includes user context such as location, time and interest
for personalization of mobile users. We can easily collect information
about location and time because mobile devices communicate with the
base station of the service provider. However, information about user
interest can-t be easily collected because user interest can not be
captured automatically without user-s approval process. User interest
usually represented as a need. In this study, we classify needs into two
types according to prior research. This study investigates the
usefulness of data mining techniques for classifying user need type for
recommendation systems. We employ several data mining techniques
including artificial neural networks, decision trees, case-based
reasoning, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Experimental
results show that CHAID algorithm outperforms other models for
classifying user need type. This study performs McNemar test to
examine the statistical significance of the differences of classification
results. The results of McNemar test also show that CHAID performs
better than the other models with statistical significance.
Abstract: The rising growth of the GSM cellular phone industry has tightening competition level between providers in making strategies enhancing the market shares in Indonesia. Tsel, as one of those companies, has to determine the proper strategy to sustain as well as improve the market share without reducing its operational income level. Portfolio simulation model is designed with a dynamic system approach. The result of this research is a recommendation to the company by optimizing its technological policies, services, and promotions. The tariff policies and the signal quality should not be the main focus because this company has had a large number of customers and a good infrastructural condition.
Abstract: In this paper a nonlinear model is presented to
demonstrate the relation between production and marketing
departments. By introducing some functions such as pricing cost and
market share loss functions it will be tried to show some aspects of
market modelling which has not been regarded before. The proposed
model will be a constrained signomial geometric programming
model. For model solving, after variables- modifications an iterative
technique based on the concept of geometric mean will be introduced
to solve the resulting non-standard posynomial model which can be
applied to a wide variety of models in non-standard posynomial
geometric programming form. At the end a numerical analysis will
be presented to accredit the validity of the mentioned model.
Abstract: This paper presents the identification of the impact
force acting on a simply supported beam. The force identification is
an inverse problem in which the measured response of the structure is
used to determine the applied force. The identification problem is
formulated as an optimization problem and the genetic algorithm is
utilized to solve the optimization problem. The objective function is
calculated on the difference between analytical and measured
responses and the decision variables are the location and magnitude
of the applied force. The results from simulation show the
effectiveness of the approach and its robustness vs. the measurement
noise and sensor location.