Abstract: Majority of Business Software Systems (BSS)
Development and Enhancement Projects (D&EP) fail to meet criteria
of their effectiveness, what leads to the considerable financial losses.
One of the fundamental reasons for such projects- exceptionally low
success rate are improperly derived estimates for their costs and time.
In the case of BSS D&EP these attributes are determined by the work
effort, meanwhile reliable and objective effort estimation still appears
to be a great challenge to the software engineering. Thus this paper is
aimed at presenting the most important synthetic conclusions coming
from the author-s own studies concerning the main factors of
effective BSS D&EP work effort estimation. Thanks to the rational
investment decisions made on the basis of reliable and objective
criteria it is possible to reduce losses caused not only by abandoned
projects but also by large scale of overrunning the time and costs of
BSS D&EP execution.
Abstract: When the profile information of an existing road is
missing or not up-to-date and the parameters of the vertical
alignment are needed for engineering analysis, the engineer has to recreate
the geometric design features of the road alignment using
collected profile data. The profile data may be collected using
traditional surveying methods, global positioning systems, or digital
imagery. This paper develops a method that estimates the parameters
of the geometric features that best characterize the existing vertical
alignments in terms of tangents and the expressions of the curve, that
may be symmetrical, asymmetrical, reverse, and complex vertical
curves. The method is implemented using an Excel-based
optimization method that minimizes the differences between the
observed profile and the profiles estimated from the equations of the
vertical curve. The method uses a 'wireframe' representation of the
profile that makes the proposed method applicable to all types of
vertical curves. A secondary contribution of this paper is to introduce
the properties of the equal-arc asymmetrical curve that has been
recently developed in the highway geometric design field.
Abstract: Localization is one of the critical issues in the field of
robot navigation. With an accurate estimate of the robot pose, robots will be capable of navigating in the environment autonomously and efficiently. In this paper, a hybrid Distributed Vision System (DVS)
for robot localization is presented. The presented approach integrates
odometry data from robot and images captured from overhead cameras
installed in the environment to help reduce possibilities of fail
localization due to effects of illumination, encoder accumulated errors,
and low quality range data. An odometry-based motion model is applied to predict robot poses, and robot images captured by overhead
cameras are then used to update pose estimates with HSV histogram-based measurement model. Experiment results show the
presented approach could localize robots in a global world coordinate system with localization errors within 100mm.
Abstract: Discharges in hydrogen, ignited by wire explosion, with current amplitude up to 1.5 MA were investigated. Channel diameter oscillations were observed on the photostreaks. Voltage and current curves correlated with the photostreaks. At initial gas pressure of 5-35 MPa the oscillation period was proportional to square root of atomic number of the initiating wire material. These oscillations were associated with aligned magnetic and gas-kinetic pressures. At initial pressure of 80-160 MPa acoustic pressure fluctuations on the discharge chamber wall were increased up to 150 MPa and there were the growth of voltage fluctuations on the discharge gap up to 3 kV simultaneously with it. In some experiments it was observed abrupt increase in the oscillation amplitude, which can be caused by the resonance of the acoustic oscillations in discharge chamber volume and the oscillations connected with alignment of the gaskinetic pressure and the magnetic pressure, as far as frequencies of these oscillations are close to each other in accordance with the estimates and the experimental data. Resonance of different type oscillations can produce energy density increasing in the discharge channel. Thus, the appropriate initial conditions in the experiment allow to increase the energy density in the discharge channel
Abstract: An unsupervised classification algorithm is derived
by modeling observed data as a mixture of several mutually
exclusive classes that are each described by linear combinations of
independent non-Gaussian densities. The algorithm estimates the
data density in each class by using parametric nonlinear functions
that fit to the non-Gaussian structure of the data. This improves
classification accuracy compared with standard Gaussian mixture
models. When applied to textures, the algorithm can learn basis
functions for images that capture the statistically significant structure
intrinsic in the images. We apply this technique to the problem of
unsupervised texture classification and segmentation.
Abstract: A frequency grouping approach for multi-channel
instantaneous blind source separation (I-BSS) of convolutive
mixtures is proposed for a lower net residual inter-symbol
interference (ISI) and inter-channel interference (ICI) than the
conventional short-time Fourier transform (STFT) approach. Starting
in the time domain, STFTs are taken with overlapping windows to
convert the convolutive mixing problem into frequency domain
instantaneous mixing. Mixture samples at the same frequency but
from different STFT windows are grouped together forming unique
frequency groups.
The individual frequency group vectors are input to the I-BSS
algorithm of choice, from which the output samples are dispersed
back to their respective STFT windows. After applying the inverse
STFT, the resulting time domain signals are used to construct the
complete source estimates via the weighted overlap-add method
(WOLA). The proposed algorithm is tested for source deconvolution
given two mixtures, and simulated along with the STFT approach to
illustrate its superiority for fairly motionless sources.
Abstract: Among all geo-hydrological relationships, rainfallrunoff
relationship is of utmost importance in any hydrological
investigation and water resource planning. Spatial variation, lag time
involved in obtaining areal estimates for the basin as a whole can
affect the parameterization in design stage as well as in planning
stage. In conventional hydrological processing of data, spatial aspect
is either ignored or interpolated at sub-basin level. Temporal
variation when analysed for different stages can provide clues for its
spatial effectiveness. The interplay of space-time variation at pixel
level can provide better understanding of basin parameters.
Sustenance of design structures for different return periods and their
spatial auto-correlations should be studied at different geographical
scales for better management and planning of water resources.
In order to understand the relative effect of spatio-temporal
variation in hydrological data network, a detailed geo-hydrological
analysis of Betwa river catchment falling in Lower Yamuna Basin is
presented in this paper. Moreover, the exact estimates about the
availability of water in the Betwa river catchment, especially in the
wake of recent Betwa-Ken linkage project, need thorough scientific
investigation for better planning. Therefore, an attempt in this
direction is made here to analyse the existing hydrological and
meteorological data with the help of SPSS, GIS and MS-EXCEL
software. A comparison of spatial and temporal correlations at subcatchment
level in case of upper Betwa reaches has been made to
demonstrate the representativeness of rain gauges. First, flows at
different locations are used to derive correlation and regression
coefficients. Then, long-term normal water yield estimates based on
pixel-wise regression coefficients of rainfall-runoff relationship have
been mapped. The areal values obtained from these maps can
definitely improve upon estimates based on point-based
extrapolations or areal interpolations.
Abstract: A new observer based fault detection and diagnosis
scheme for predicting induction motors- faults is proposed in this
paper. Prediction of incipient faults, using different variants of
Kalman filter and their relative performance are evaluated. Only soft
faults are considered for this work. The data generation, filter
convergence issues, hypothesis testing and residue estimates are
addressed. Simulink model is used for data generation and various
types of faults are considered. A comparative assessment of the
estimates of different observers associated with these faults is
included.
Abstract: Recent quasi-experimental evaluation of the Canadian Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP) by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) has provided an opportunity to examine alternative methods to estimating the incremental effects of Employment Benefits and Support Measures (EBSMs) on program participants. The focus of this paper is to assess the efficiency and robustness of inverse probability weighting (IPW) relative to kernel matching (KM) in the estimation of program effects. To accomplish this objective, the authors compare pairs of 1,080 estimates, along with their associated standard errors, to assess which type of estimate is generally more efficient and robust. In the interest of practicality, the authorsalso document the computationaltime it took to produce the IPW and KM estimates, respectively.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to develop a new two dimensional time accurate Euler solver for shock tube applications. The solver was developed to study the performance of a newly built short-duration hypersonic test facility at Universiti Tenaga Nasional “UNITEN" in Malaysia. The facility has been designed, built, and commissioned for different values of diaphragm pressure ratios in order to get wide range of Mach number. The developed solver uses second order accurate cell-vertex finite volume spatial discretization and forth order accurate Runge-Kutta temporal integration and it is designed to simulate the flow process for similar driver/driven gases (e.g. air-air as working fluids). The solver is validated against analytical solution and experimental measurements in the high speed flow test facility. Further investigations were made on the flow process inside the shock tube by using the solver. The shock wave motion, reflection and interaction were investigated and their influence on the performance of the shock tube was determined. The results provide very good estimates for both shock speed and shock pressure obtained after diaphragm rupture. Also detailed information on the gasdynamic processes over the full length of the facility is available. The agreements obtained have been reasonable.
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant
aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are
considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the
approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel
(1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their
dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is
conducted.
Abstract: The use of a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to interpret breath measurements obtained during a 13C Octanoic Breath Test (13COBT) is demonstrated. The statistical analysis was implemented using WinBUGS, a commercially available computer package for Bayesian inference. A hierarchical setting was adopted where poorly defined parameters associated with a delayed Gastric Emptying (GE) were able to "borrow" strength from global distributions. This is proved to be a sufficient tool to correct model's failures and data inconsistencies apparent in conventional analyses employing a Non-linear least squares technique (NLS). Direct comparison of two parameters describing gastric emptying ng ( tlag -lag phase, t1/ 2 -half emptying time) revealed a strong correlation between the two methods. Despite our large dataset ( n = 164 ), Bayesian modeling was fast and provided a successful fitting for all subjects. On the contrary, NLS failed to return acceptable estimates in cases where GE was delayed.
Abstract: The strong international competition as the factor of rising economic development efficiency should not turn into destructive force for models of social orientation. What result Europe received from the accelerated integration without a long transition period of the accepted countries. Correlative relationship between the research and development expenditure and labor productivity, inflation and the rate economy's growth of the USA and the euro zone, employment and gross value added between Old and New Europe is analyzed in this article. The article estimates the differences in economic growth of Old and New Europe. Correlation rate between cycles of the euro area and the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe very much differs, though some of these countries have high correlation as members of the Economic and Monetary Union. Besides, the majority of the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe does not correspond to criteria of an optimum currency area.
Abstract: The dominant judgment for earthquake damaged reinforced concrete (RC) structures is to rebuild them with the new ones. Consequently, this paper estimates if there is chance to repair earthquake RC beams and obtain economical contribution to modern day society. Therefore, the totally damaged (damaged in shear under cyclic load) reinforced concrete (RC) beams repaired and strengthened by externally bonded carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips in this study. Four specimens, apart from the reference beam, were separated into two distinct groups. Two experimental beams in the first group primarily tested up to failure then appropriately repaired and strengthened with CFRP strips. Two undamaged specimens from the second group were not repaired but strengthened by the identical strengthening scheme as the first group for comparison. This study studies whether earthquake damaged RC beams that have been repaired and strengthened will validate similar strength and behavior to equally strengthened, undamaged RC beams. Accordingly, a strength correspondence according to strengthened specimens was acquired for the repaired and strengthened specimens. Test results confirmed that repair and strengthening, which were estimated in the experimental program, were effective for the specimens with the cracking patterns considered in the experimental program.
Abstract: Using a texture database, a statistical estimation of
spring-back was conducted in this study on the basis of statistical
analysis. Both spring-back in bending deformation and experimental
data related to the crystal orientation show significant dispersion.
Therefore, a probabilistic statistical approach was established for the
proper quantification of these values. Correlation was examined
among the parameters F(x) of spring-back, F(x) of the buildup fraction
to three orientations after 92° bending, and F(x) at an as-received part
on the basis of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Consequent
spring-back estimation using a texture database yielded excellent
estimates compared with experimental values.
Abstract: Recent trends in building constructions in Libya are
more toward tall (high-rise) building projects. As a consequence, a
better estimation of the lateral loading in the design process is
becoming the focal of a safe and cost effective building industry. Byin-
large, Libya is not considered a potential earthquake prone zone,
making wind is the dominant design lateral loads. Current design
practice in the country estimates wind speeds on a mere random
bases by considering certain factor of safety to the chosen wind
speed. Therefore, a need for a more accurate estimation of wind
speeds in Libya was the motivation behind this study. Records of
wind speed data were collected from 22 metrological stations in
Libya, and were statistically analysed. The analysis of more than four
decades of wind speed records suggests that the country can be
divided into four zones of distinct wind speeds. A computer “survey"
program was manipulated to draw design wind speeds contour map
for the state of Libya.
The paper presents the statistical analysis of Libya-s recorded
wind speed data and proposes design wind speed values for a 50-year
return period that covers the entire country.
Abstract: Radio frequency identification (RFID) applications have grown rapidly in many industries, especially in indoor location identification. The advantage of using received signal strength indicator (RSSI) values as an indoor location measurement method is a cost-effective approach without installing extra hardware. Because the accuracy of many positioning schemes using RSSI values is limited by interference factors and the environment, thus it is challenging to use RFID location techniques based on integrating positioning algorithm design. This study proposes the location estimation approach and analyzes a scheme relying on RSSI values to minimize location errors. In addition, this paper examines different factors that affect location accuracy by integrating the backpropagation neural network (BPN) with the LANDMARC algorithm in a training phase and an online phase. First, the training phase computes coordinates obtained from the LANDMARC algorithm, which uses RSSI values and the real coordinates of reference tags as training data for constructing an appropriate BPN architecture and training length. Second, in the online phase, the LANDMARC algorithm calculates the coordinates of tracking tags, which are then used as BPN inputs to obtain location estimates. The results show that the proposed scheme can estimate locations more accurately compared to LANDMARC without extra devices.
Abstract: In recent years, copulas have become very popular in
financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in
modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared
to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson.
However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in
order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure
and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization
heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to
tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models
in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely
on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of
more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas.
Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides
more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM
approach.
Abstract: Web usage mining algorithms have been widely
utilized for modeling user web navigation behavior. In this study we
advance a model for mining of user-s navigation pattern. The model
makes user model based on expectation-maximization (EM)
algorithm.An EM algorithm is used in statistics for finding maximum
likelihood estimates of parameters in probabilistic models, where the
model depends on unobserved latent variables. The experimental
results represent that by decreasing the number of clusters, the log
likelihood converges toward lower values and probability of the
largest cluster will be decreased while the number of the clusters
increases in each treatment.