Abstract: High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.
Abstract: In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that
resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake
fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and
caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce
the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is
a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The
parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors
influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition,
including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance,
and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing
to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake
characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak
ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are
solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they
cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake
records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model
parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition
ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in
an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition
events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such
correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.
Abstract: Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.
Abstract: Background: The 2004 World Health Assembly called for specific actions to halt the overweight and obesity epidemic that is currently penetrating urban populations in the developing world. Adolescents require particular attention due to their vulnerability to develop obesity and the fact that adolescent weight tracks strongly into adulthood. However, there is scarcity of information on the modifiable risk factors to be targeted for primary intervention among urban adolescents in Ethiopia. This study was aimed at determining the magnitude and risk factors of overweight and obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted in February and March 2014 on 456 randomly selected adolescents from 20 high schools in Addis Ababa city. Demographic data and other risk factors of overweight and obesity were collected using self-administered structured questionnaire, whereas anthropometric measurements of weight and height were taken using calibrated equipment and standardized techniques. The WHO STEPS instrument for chronic disease risk was applied to assess dietary habit and physical activity. Overweight and obesity status was determined based on BMI-for-age percentiles of WHO 2007 reference population. Results: The prevalence rates of overweight, obesity, and overall overweight/ obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa were 9.7% (95%CI = 6.9-12.4%), 4.2% (95%CI = 2.3-6.0%), and 13.9% (95%CI = 10.6-17.1%), respectively. Overweight/obesity prevalence was highest among female adolescents, in private schools, and in the higher wealth category. In multivariable regression model, being female [AOR(95%CI) = 5.4(2.5,12.1)], being from private school [AOR(95%CI) = 3.0(1.4,6.2)], having >3 regular meals [AOR(95%CI) = 4.0(1.3,13.0)], consumption of sweet foods [AOR(95%CI) = 5.0(2.4,10.3)] and spending >3 hours/day sitting [AOR(95%CI) = 3.5(1.7,7.2)] were found to increase overweight/ obesity risk, whereas high Total Physical Activity level [AOR(95%CI) = 0.21(0.08,0.57)] and better nutrition knowledge [AOR(95%CI) = 0.160.07,0.37)] were found protective. Conclusions: More than one in ten of the high school adolescents were affected by overweight/obesity with dietary habit and physical activity are important modifiable risk factors. Well-tailored nutrition education program targeting lifestyle change should be initiated with more emphasis to female adolescents and students in private schools.
Abstract: Slovak, as well as foreign authors, believe that the influence of non-cognitive factors on a student's academic success or failure is unquestionable. The aim of this paper is to establish a link between the mental vulnerability and coping strategies used by 4th grade elementary school students in dealing with stressful situations and their academic performance, which was used as a simple quantitative indicator of academic success. The research sample consists of 320 students representing the standard population and 60 students with special education needs (SEN), who were assessed by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) by their teachers and the Children’s Coping Strategies Checklist (CCSC-R1) filled in by themselves. Students with SEN recorded an extraordinarily high frequency of mental vulnerability (34.5 %) than students representing the standard population (7 %). The poorest academic performance of students with SEN was associated with the avoidance behavior displayed during stressful situations. Students of the standard population did not demonstrate this association. Students with SEN are more likely to display mental health problems than students of the standard population. This may be caused by the accumulation of and frequent exposure to situations that they perceive as stressful.
Abstract: This study presents the seismic safety evaluation of weir structure subjected to strong earthquake ground motions, as a flood defense structure in civil engineering structures. The seismic safety analysis procedure was illustrated through development of Finite Element (FE) and InFinite Element (IFE) method in ABAQUS platform. The IFE model was generated by CINPS4, 4-node linear one-way infinite model as a sold continuum infinite element in foundation areas of the weir structure and then nonlinear FE model using friction model for soil-structure interactions was applied in this study. In order to understand the complex behavior of weir structures, nonlinear time history analysis was carried out. Consequently, it was interesting to note that the compressive stress gave more vulnerability to the weir structure, in comparison to the tensile stress, during an earthquake. The stress concentration of the weir structure was shown at the connection area between the weir body and stilling basin area. The stress both tension and compression was reduced in IFE model rather than FE model of weir structures.
Abstract: Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for
network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious
problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of
them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the
analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks.
The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to
perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts
basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose
a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description
logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that
allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.
Abstract: Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.
Abstract: Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.
Abstract: We present a new subband adaptive filter (R-SAF)
which is robust against impulsive noise in system identification. To
address the vulnerability of adaptive filters based on the L2-norm
optimization criterion against impulsive noise, the R-SAF comes from
the L1-norm optimization criterion with a constraint on the energy
of the weight update. Minimizing L1-norm of the a posteriori error
in each subband with a constraint on minimum disturbance gives
rise to the robustness against the impulsive noise and the capable
convergence performance. Experimental results clearly demonstrate
that the proposed R-SAF outperforms the classical adaptive filtering
algorithms when impulsive noise as well as background noise exist.
Abstract: Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify
the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single
or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were
affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health.
Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of
businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through
assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property
protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method
involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses
affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire
included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure
which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood
impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal
flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results
established that the key secondary stressors experienced by
businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of
reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure,
loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues.
There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and
consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors
among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood
resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13%
respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the
Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic
stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55
respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the
enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that
not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health
impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely
as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of
financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of
implementation of property protection measures among businesses,
despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore
it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential
sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for
flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made
available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no
significant association between the time of the last flood event and
the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.
Abstract: Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can
damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in
Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a
country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk.
Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological
territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the
level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a
territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and
transformations of society and this brings other relevant factors. The
reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be
found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of
the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about
this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of
environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable
management of landscape. Finally, the study reflects on how regional
and urban planners deal with environmental risk and which aspects
should be monitored in order to adopt responsible and useful
interventions.
Abstract: With the increasing dependence of countries on the
critical infrastructure, it increases their vulnerability. Big threat is
primarily in the human factor (personnel of the critical infrastructure)
and in terrorist attacks. It emphasizes the development of
methodology for searching of weak points and their subsequent
elimination. This article discusses methods for the analysis of safety
in the objects of critical infrastructure. It also contains proposal for
methodology for training employees of security services in the
objects of the critical infrastructure and developing scenarios of
attacks on selected objects of the critical infrastructure.
Abstract: Millions of girls are forcibly married during the
transitional period between puberty and adulthood. At a stage of
vulnerability cultural practices, religious rights and social standards
place her in a position where she is catapult into womanhood. An
advocate against forced child marriage could argue that child rights,
cultural rights, religious rights, right to marry, right to life, right to
health, right to education, right to be free from slavery, right to be
free from torture, right to consent to marriage are all violated by the
practice of child marriage. The author is this advocate and this paper
will present how some of these rights are violated and establish the
need for change.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the
enhancement of a hydroelectric plant protection by coordinating
protection measures / existing security and introducing new measures
under a risk management process. In addition, plan identifies key
critical elements of a hydroelectric plant, from its level vulnerabilities
and threats it is subjected to in order to achieve the necessary
protection measures to reduce the level of risk.
Abstract: The current study focuses on the seismic design of
offshore pipelines against active faults. After an extensive literature
review of the provisions of the seismic norms worldwide and of the
available analytical methods, the study simulates numerically
(through finite-element modeling and strain-based criteria) the
distress of offshore pipelines subjected to PGDs induced by active
normal and reverse seismic faults at the seabed. Factors, such as the
geometrical properties of the fault, the mechanical properties of the
ruptured soil formations, and the pipeline characteristics, are
examined. After some interesting conclusions regarding the seismic
vulnerability of offshore pipelines, potential cost-effective mitigation
measures are proposed taking into account constructability issues.
Abstract: Presented article outlines a rationale, why it is
necessary to develop competence about infrastructure risk in water
transport. Climate changes are evident and require special attention
and global monitoring. Current risk assessment methods for Inland
waterway transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a
new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of inland
waterway transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The
analysis of water level changes in the lower Danube was done for two
significant periods (1965-1979 and 1998-2012).
Abstract: The current paper presents an extensive bottom-up
framework for assessing building sector-specific vulnerability to
climate change: energy supply and demand. The research focuses on
the application of downscaled seasonal models for estimating energy
performance of buildings in Greece. The ARW-WRF model has
been set-up and suitably parameterized to produce downscaled
climatological fields for Greece, forced by the output of the CFSv2
model. The outer domain, D01/Europe, included 345 x 345 cells of
horizontal resolution 20 x 20 km2 and the inner domain, D02/Greece,
comprised 180 x 180 cells of 5 x 5 km2 horizontal resolution. The
model run has been setup for a period with a forecast horizon of 6
months, storing outputs on a six hourly basis.
Abstract: Most of the existing video streaming protocols
provide video services without considering security aspects in
decentralized mobile ad-hoc networks. The security policies adapted
to the currently existing non-streaming protocols, do not comply with
the live video streaming protocols resulting in considerable
vulnerability, high bandwidth consumption and unreliability which
cause severe security threats, low bandwidth and error prone
transmission respectively in video streaming applications. Therefore
a synergized methodology is required to reduce vulnerability and
bandwidth consumption, and enhance reliability in the video
streaming applications in MANET. To ensure the security measures
with reduced bandwidth consumption and improve reliability of the
video streaming applications, a Secure Low-bandwidth Video
Streaming through Reliable Multipath Propagation (SLVRMP)
protocol architecture has been proposed by incorporating the two
algorithms namely Secure Low-bandwidth Video Streaming
Algorithm and Reliable Secure Multipath Propagation Algorithm
using Layered Video Coding in non-overlapping zone routing
network topology. The performances of the proposed system are
compared to those of the other existing secure multipath protocols
Sec-MR, SPREAD using NS 2.34 and the simulation results show
that the performances of the proposed system get considerably
improved.
Abstract: The aim of the current study was to develop and
validate a Response to Stressful Situations Scale (RSSS) for the
Portuguese population. This scale assesses the degree of stress
experienced in scenarios that can constitute positive, negative and
more neutral stressors, and also describes the physiological,
emotional and behavioral reactions to those events according to their
intensity. These scenarios include typical stressor scenarios relevant
to patients with schizophrenia, which are currently absent from most
scales, assessing specific risks that these stressors may bring on
subjects, which may prove useful in non-clinical and clinical
populations (i.e. Patients with mood or anxiety disorders,
schizophrenia). Results from Principal Components Analysis and
Confirmatory Factor Analysis of two adult samples from general
population allowed to confirm a three-factor model with good fit
indices: χ2 (144)= 370.211, p = 0.000; GFI = 0.928; CFI = 0.927; TLI =
0.914, RMSEA = 0.055, P(rmsea ≤0.005) = .096; PCFI = .781.
Further data analysis of the scale revealed that RSSS is an adequate
assessment tool of stress response in adults to be used in further
research and clinical settings, with good psychometric characteristics,
adequate divergent and convergent validity, good temporal stability
and high internal consistency.