Abstract: This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the
rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self
excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach
and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated
minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor
operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected
during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp,
12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was
tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads.
Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable
induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable
energy application in remote area or where grid is not available.
Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function,
survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and
probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase
induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically
in this paper.
Abstract: In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.
Abstract: Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.
Abstract: The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.
Abstract: Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.
Abstract: Genome rearrangement is an important area in computational biology and bioinformatics. The basic problem in genome rearrangements is to compute the edit distance, i.e., the minimum number of operations needed to transform one genome into another. Unfortunately, unsigned genome rearrangement problem is NP-hard. In this study an improved ant colony optimization algorithm to approximate the edit distance is proposed. The main idea is to convert the unsigned permutation to signed permutation and evaluate the ants by using Kaplan algorithm. Two new operations are added to the standard ant colony algorithm: Replacing the worst ants by re-sampling the ants from a new probability distribution and applying the crossover operations on the best ants. The proposed algorithm is tested and compared with the improved breakpoint reversal sort algorithm by using three datasets. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm achieves better accuracy ratio than the previous methods.
Abstract: Entropy is a key measure in studies related to information theory and its many applications. Campbell for the first time recognized that the exponential of the Shannon’s entropy is just the size of the sample space, when distribution is uniform. Here is the idea to study exponentials of Shannon’s and those other entropy generalizations that involve logarithmic function for a probability distribution in general. In this paper, we introduce a measure of sample space, called ‘entropic measure of a sample space’, with respect to the underlying distribution. It is shown in both discrete and continuous cases that this new measure depends on the parameters of the distribution on the sample space - same sample space having different ‘entropic measures’ depending on the distributions defined on it. It was noted that Campbell’s idea applied for R`enyi’s parametric entropy of a given order also. Knowing that parameters play a role in providing suitable choices and extended applications, paper studies parametric entropic measures of sample spaces also. Exponential entropies related to Shannon’s and those generalizations that have logarithmic functions, i.e. are additive have been studies for wider understanding and applications. We propose and study exponential entropies corresponding to non additive entropies of type (α, β), which include Havard and Charvˆat entropy as a special case.
Abstract: Drought is universally acknowledged as a phenomenon associated with scarcity of water. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) expresses the actual rainfall as standardized departure from rainfall probability distribution function. In this study severity and spatial pattern of meteorological drought was analyzed in the Puruliya District, West Bengal, India using multi-temporal SPI. Daily gridded data for the period 1971-2005 from 4 rainfall stations surrounding the study area were collected from IMD, Pune, and used in the analysis. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to generate drought severity maps for the different time scales and months of the year. Temporal SPI graphs show that the maximum SPI value (extreme drought) occurs in station 3 in the year 1993. Mild and moderate droughts occur in the central portion of the study area. Severe and extreme droughts were mostly found in the northeast, northwest and the southwest part of the region.
Abstract: Missing values in data are common in real world applications. Since the performance of many data mining algorithms depend critically on it being given a good metric over the input space, we decided in this paper to define a distance function for unlabeled
datasets with missing values. We use the Bhattacharyya distance, which measures the similarity of two probability distributions, to define our new distance function. According to this distance, the distance between two points without missing attributes values is simply the Mahalanobis distance. When on the other hand there is a missing value of one of the coordinates, the distance is computed according to the distribution of the missing coordinate. Our distance is general and can be used as part of any algorithm that computes the distance between data points. Because its performance depends strongly on the chosen distance measure, we opted for the k nearest neighbor classifier to evaluate its ability to accurately reflect object similarity. We experimented on standard numerical datasets from the UCI repository from different fields. On these datasets we simulated missing values and compared the performance of the kNN classifier using our distance to other three basic methods. Our experiments show that kNN using our distance function outperforms the kNN using other methods. Moreover, the runtime performance of our method is only slightly higher than the other methods.
Abstract: This paper discusses a new heavy tailed distribution based data hiding into discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of image, which provides statistical security as well as robustness against steganalysis attacks. Unlike other data hiding algorithms, the proposed technique does not introduce much effect in the stegoimage-s DCT coefficient probability plots, thus making the presence of hidden data statistically undetectable. In addition the proposed method does not compromise on hiding capacity. When compared to the generic block DCT based data-hiding scheme, our method found more robust against a variety of image manipulating attacks such as filtering, blurring, JPEG compression etc.
Abstract: A robust still image face localization algorithm
capable of operating in an unconstrained visual environment is
proposed. First, construction of a robust skin classifier within a
shifted HSV color space is described. Then various filtering
operations are performed to better isolate face candidates and
mitigate the effect of substantial non-skin regions. Finally, a novel
Bhattacharyya-based face detection algorithm is used to compare
candidate regions of interest with a unique illumination-dependent
face model probability distribution function approximation.
Experimental results show a 90% face detection success rate despite
the demands of the visually noisy environment.
Abstract: A novel feature selection strategy to improve the recognition accuracy on the faces that are affected due to nonuniform illumination, partial occlusions and varying expressions is proposed in this paper. This technique is applicable especially in scenarios where the possibility of obtaining a reliable intra-class probability distribution is minimal due to fewer numbers of training samples. Phase congruency features in an image are defined as the points where the Fourier components of that image are maximally inphase. These features are invariant to brightness and contrast of the image under consideration. This property allows to achieve the goal of lighting invariant face recognition. Phase congruency maps of the training samples are generated and a novel modular feature selection strategy is implemented. Smaller sub regions from a predefined neighborhood within the phase congruency images of the training samples are merged to obtain a large set of features. These features are arranged in the order of increasing distance between the sub regions involved in merging. The assumption behind the proposed implementation of the region merging and arrangement strategy is that, local dependencies among the pixels are more important than global dependencies. The obtained feature sets are then arranged in the decreasing order of discriminating capability using a criterion function, which is the ratio of the between class variance to the within class variance of the sample set, in the PCA domain. The results indicate high improvement in the classification performance compared to baseline algorithms.
Abstract: In this paper, based on the past project cost and time
performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is
developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept
to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this
concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled
control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for
each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing
sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are
considered through Beta distribution functions of the project
activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time
sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a
variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the
project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned
Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution
functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is
predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.
Abstract: Wind is among the potential energy resources which
can be harnessed to generate wind energy for conversion into
electrical power. Due to the variability of wind speed with time and
height, it becomes difficult to predict the generated wind energy more
optimally. In this paper, an attempt is made to establish a
probabilistic model fitting the wind speed data recorded at
Makambako site in Tanzania. Wind speeds and direction were
respectively measured using anemometer (type AN1) and wind Vane
(type WD1) both supplied by Delta-T-Devices at a measurement
height of 2 m. Wind speeds were then extrapolated for the height of
10 m using power law equation with an exponent of 0.47. Data were
analysed using MINITAB statistical software to show the variability
of wind speeds with time and height, and to determine the underlying
probability model of the extrapolated wind speed data. The results
show that wind speeds at Makambako site vary cyclically over time;
and they conform to the Weibull probability distribution. From these
results, Weibull probability density function can be used to predict
the wind energy.
Abstract: In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.
Abstract: This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.
Abstract: In this paper we propose a method for modeling the
correlation between the received signals by two or more antennas
operating in a multipath environment. Considering the maximum
excess delay in the channel being modeled, an elliptical region
surrounding both transmitter and receiver antennas is produced. A
number of scatterers are randomly distributed in this region and
scatter the incoming waves. The amplitude and phase of incoming
waves are computed and used to obtain statistical properties of the
received signals. This model has the distinguishable advantage of
being applicable for any configuration of antennas. Furthermore the
common PDF (Probability Distribution Function) of received wave
amplitudes for any pair of antennas can be calculated and used to
produce statistical parameters of received signals.
Abstract: Rainfall data at fine resolution and knowledge of its
characteristics plays a major role in the efficient design and operation
of agricultural, telecommunication, runoff and erosion control as well
as water quality control systems. The paper is aimed to study the
statistical distribution of hourly rainfall depth for 12 representative
stations spread across Peninsular Malaysia. Hourly rainfall data of 10
to 22 years period were collected and its statistical characteristics
were estimated. Three probability distributions namely, Generalized
Pareto, Exponential and Gamma distributions were proposed to
model the hourly rainfall depth, and three goodness-of-fit tests,
namely, Kolmogorov-Sminov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared
tests were used to evaluate their fitness. Result indicates that the east
cost of the Peninsular receives higher depth of rainfall as compared
to west coast. However, the rainfall frequency is found to be
irregular. Also result from the goodness-of-fit tests show that all the
three models fit the rainfall data at 1% level of significance.
However, Generalized Pareto fits better than Exponential and
Gamma distributions and is therefore recommended as the best fit.
Abstract: FlexRay, as a communication protocol for automotive
control systems, is developed to fulfill the increasing demand on the
electronic control units for implementing systems with higher safety
and more comfort. In this work, we study the impact of
radiation-induced soft errors on FlexRay-based steer-by-wire system.
We injected the soft errors into general purpose register set of FlexRay
nodes to identify the most critical registers, the failure modes of the
steer-by-wire system, and measure the probability distribution of
failure modes when an error occurs in the register file.
Abstract: Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.