Abstract: In the software development lifecycle, the quality prediction techniques hold a prime importance in order to minimize future design errors and expensive maintenance. There are many techniques proposed by various researchers, but with the increasing complexity of the software lifecycle model, it is crucial to develop a flexible system which can cater for the factors which in result have an impact on the quality of the end product. These factors include properties of the software development process and the product along with its operation conditions. In this paper, a neural network (perceptron) based software quality prediction technique is proposed. Using this technique, the stakeholders can predict the quality of the resulting software during the early phases of the lifecycle saving time and resources on future elimination of design errors and costly maintenance. This technique can be brought into practical use using successful training.
Abstract: Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting
many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its
quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters
although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being
used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective
parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the
Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D
scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the
weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative
rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean
square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM
2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over
Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall
amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern
Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A
spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective
parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme
over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750
mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern
Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny,
and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most
parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm).
The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region
(250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria
Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated
rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall
prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction
over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended
over eastern region.
Abstract: Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.
Abstract: The wide range of industrial applications involved with boiling flows promotes the necessity of establishing fundamental knowledge in boiling flow phenomena. For this purpose, a number of experimental and numerical researches have been performed to elucidate the underlying physics of this flow. In this paper, the improved wall boiling models, implemented on ANSYS CFX 14.5, were introduced to study subcooled boiling flow at elevated pressure. At the heated wall boundary, the Fractal model, Force balance approach and Mechanistic frequency model are given for predicting the nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and bubble departure frequency. The presented wall heat flux partitioning closures were modified to consider the influence of bubble sliding along the wall before the lift-off, which usually happens in the flow boiling. The simulation was performed based on the Two-fluid model, where the standard k-ω SST model was selected for turbulence modelling. Existing experimental data at around 5 bars were chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the presented mechanistic approach. The void fraction and Interfacial Area Concentration (IAC) are in good agreement with the experimental data. However, the predicted bubble velocity and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) are over-predicted. This over-prediction may be caused by consideration of only dispersed and spherical bubbles in the simulations. In the future work, the important physical mechanisms of bubbles, such as merging and shrinking during sliding on the heated wall will be incorporated into this mechanistic model to enhance its capability for a wider range of flow prediction.
Abstract: In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.
Abstract: Beam-column connections play an important role in the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame (RCMRF), which is one of the most commonly used structural systems around the world. The premature failure of such connections would severely limit the seismic performance and increase the vulnerability of RCMRF. In the past decades, researchers primarily focused on investigating the structural behaviour and failure mechanisms of conventional beam-column joints, the beam width of which is either smaller than or equal to the column width, while studies in wide beam-column joints were scarce. This paper presents the preliminary experimental results of two full-scale exterior wide beam-column connections, which are mainly designed and detailed according to ACI 318-14 and ACI 352R-02, under reversed cyclic loading. The ratios of the design shear force to the nominal shear strength of these specimens are 1.0 and 1.7, respectively, so as to probe into differences of the joint shear strength between experimental results and predictions by design codes of practice. Flexural failure dominated in the specimen with ratio of 1.0 in which full-width plastic hinges were observed, while both beam hinges and post-peak joint shear failure occurred for the other specimen. No sign of premature joint shear failure was found which is inconsistent with ACI codes’ prediction. Finally, a modification of current codes of practice is provided to accurately predict the joint shear strength in wide beam-column joint.
Abstract: A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.
Abstract: Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) techniques are quite popular and effective for chronic diseases. Iridology is more than 150 years old CAM technique which analyzes the patterns, tissue weakness, color, shape, structure, etc. for disease diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to validate the use of iridology for the diagnosis of the diabetes. The suggested model was applied in a systemic disease with ocular effects. 200 subject data of 100 each diabetic and non-diabetic were evaluated. Complete procedure was kept very simple and free from the involvement of any iridologist. From the normalized iris, the region of interest was cropped. All 63 features were extracted using statistical, texture analysis, and two-dimensional discrete wavelet transformation. A comparison of accuracies of six different classifiers has been presented. The result shows 89.66% accuracy by the random forest classifier.
Abstract: Submarine power cables used for offshore wind farms
electric energy distribution and transmission are subject to numerous
threats. Some of the risks are associated with transport, installation
and operating in harsh marine environment. This paper describes the
feasibility of an electromagnetic low frequency sensing technique for
submarine power cable failure prediction. The impact of a structural
damage shape and material variability on the induced electric field is
evaluated. The analysis is performed by modeling the cable using the
finite element method, we use sensitivity analysis in order to identify
the main damage characteristics affecting electric field variation.
Lastly, we discuss the results obtained.
Abstract: To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.
Abstract: Human faces, as important visual signals, express a significant amount of nonverbal info for usage in human-to-human communication. Age, specifically, is more significant among these properties. Human age estimation using facial image analysis as an automated method which has numerous potential real‐world applications. In this paper, an automated age estimation framework is presented. Support Vector Regression (SVR) strategy is utilized to investigate age prediction. This paper depicts a feature extraction taking into account Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), which can be utilized for robust face recognition framework. It applies GLCM operation to remove the face's features images and Active Appearance Models (AAMs) to assess the human age based on image. A fused feature technique and SVR with GA optimization are proposed to lessen the error in age estimation.
Abstract: Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.
Abstract: Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.
Abstract: MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in
many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as
biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification
of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to
reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper,
we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating
prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a
feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning
algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The
approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies
into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms
enabling lung cancer formation.
Abstract: Journal bearings used in IC engines are prone to premature
failures and are likely to fail earlier than the rated life due to
highly impulsive and unstable operating conditions and frequent
starts/stops. Vibration signature extraction and wear debris analysis
techniques are prevalent in industry for condition monitoring of
rotary machinery. However, both techniques involve a great deal of
technical expertise, time, and cost. Limited literature is available on
the application of these techniques for fault detection in reciprocating
machinery, due to the complex nature of impact forces that
confounds the extraction of fault signals for vibration-based analysis
and wear prediction. In present study, a simulation model was developed to investigate
the bearing wear behaviour, resulting because of different operating
conditions, to complement the vibration analysis. In current
simulation, the dynamics of the engine was established first, based on
which the hydrodynamic journal bearing forces were evaluated by
numerical solution of the Reynold’s equation. In addition, the
essential outputs of interest in this study, critical to determine wear
rates are the tangential velocity and oil film thickness between the
journals and bearing sleeve, which if not maintained appropriately,
have a detrimental effect on the bearing performance. Archard’s wear prediction model was used in the simulation to
calculate the wear rate of bearings with specific location information
as all determinative parameters were obtained with reference to crank
rotation. Oil film thickness obtained from the model was used as a
criterion to determine if the lubrication is sufficient to prevent contact
between the journal and bearing thus causing accelerated wear. A
limiting value of 1 μm was used as the minimum oil film thickness
needed to prevent contact. The increased wear rate with growing
severity of operating conditions is analogous and comparable to the
rise in amplitude of the squared envelope of the referenced vibration
signals. Thus on one hand, the developed model demonstrated its
capability to explain wear behaviour and on the other hand it also
helps to establish a co-relation between wear based and vibration
based analysis. Therefore, the model provides a cost effective and
quick approach to predict the impending wear in IC engine bearings
under various operating conditions.
Abstract: The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its
dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and
longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting
machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and
thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting.
This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux
fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression
models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A
comparison of the results was performed finding neural network
models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and
prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models
were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab
software with real data in a knitting company of Southern
Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of
each alternative operation.
Abstract: Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring
was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and
reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion
for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we
performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of
chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by
curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear
test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the
load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to
useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the
compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature
ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the
Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber
material was proposed.
Abstract: Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the
hardening of hydraulic materials. This study is concerned the
modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the
prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic
materials during hardening. The model developed takes consideration
of the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement
between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and
experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe
the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes
correctly.
Abstract: Several parameters are established in order to measure
biodiesel quality. One of them is the iodine value, which is an
important parameter that measures the total unsaturation within a
mixture of fatty acids. Limitation of unsaturated fatty acids is
necessary since warming of higher quantity of these ones ends in
either formation of deposits inside the motor or damage of lubricant.
Determination of iodine value by official procedure tends to be very
laborious, with high costs and toxicity of the reagents, this study uses
artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict the iodine value
property as an alternative to these problems. The methodology of
development of networks used 13 esters of fatty acids in the input
with convergence algorithms of back propagation of back
propagation type were optimized in order to get an architecture of
prediction of iodine value. This study allowed us to demonstrate the
neural networks’ ability to learn the correlation between biodiesel
quality properties, in this caseiodine value, and the molecular
structures that make it up. The model developed in the study reached
a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.99 for both network validation and
network simulation, with Levenberg-Maquardt algorithm.
Abstract: Complex lifting entry was selected for precise landing
performance during the Mars Science Laboratory entry. This study
aims to develop the three-dimensional numerical method for precise
computation and the surface panel method for rapid engineering
prediction. Detailed flow field analysis for Mars exploration mission
was performed by carrying on a series of fully three-dimensional
Navier-Stokes computations. The static aerodynamic performance was
then discussed, including the surface pressure, lift and drag coefficient,
lift-to-drag ratio with the numerical and engineering method.
Computation results shown that the shock layer is thin because of
lower effective specific heat ratio, and that calculated results from both
methods agree well with each other, and is consistent with the
reference data. Aerodynamic performance analysis shows that CG
location determines trim characteristics and pitch stability, and certain
radially and axially shift of the CG location can alter the capsule lifting
entry performance, which is of vital significance for the aerodynamic
configuration design and inner instrument layout of the Mars entry
capsule.