Abstract: In this work, we investigate the exponential stability of a linear system described by x˙ (t) = Ax(t) − ρBx(t). Here, A generates a semigroup S(t) on a Hilbert space, the operator B is supposed to be of Desch-Schappacher type, which makes the investigation more interesting in many applications. The case of Miyadera-Voigt perturbations is also considered. Sufficient conditions are formulated in terms of admissibility and observability inequalities and the approach is based on some energy estimates. Finally, the obtained results are applied to prove the uniform exponential stabilization of bilinear partial differential equations.
Abstract: Bayesian approach can be used for parameter identification and extraction in state space models and its ability for analyzing sequence of data in dynamical system is proved in different literatures. In this paper, adaptive Kalman filter with Bayesian approach for identification of variances in measurement parameter noise is developed. Next, it is applied for estimation of the dynamical state and measurement data in discrete linear dynamical system. This algorithm at each step time estimates noise variance in measurement noise and state of system with Kalman filter. Next, approximation is designed at each step separately and consequently sufficient statistics of the state and noise variances are computed with a fixed-point iteration of an adaptive Kalman filter. Different simulations are applied for showing the influence of noise variance in measurement data on algorithm. Firstly, the effect of noise variance and its distribution on detection and identification performance is simulated in Kalman filter without Bayesian formulation. Then, simulation is applied to adaptive Kalman filter with the ability of noise variance tracking in measurement data. In these simulations, the influence of noise distribution of measurement data in each step is estimated, and true variance of data is obtained by algorithm and is compared in different scenarios. Afterwards, one typical modeling of nonlinear state space model with inducing noise measurement is simulated by this approach. Finally, the performance and the important limitations of this algorithm in these simulations are explained.
Abstract: Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental meso-scale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to that obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.
Abstract: High pressure carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption from a specific off-gas in a conventional column has been evaluated for the environmental concerns by the Aspen HYSYS simulator using a wide range of single absorbents and piperazine (PZ) blended solutions to estimate the outlet CO2 concentration, CO2 loading, reboiler power supply and regeneration heat duty to choose the most efficient solution in terms of CO2 removal and required heat duty. The property package, which is compatible with all applied solutions for the simulation in this study, estimates the properties based on electrolyte non-random two-liquid (E-NRTL) model for electrolyte thermodynamics and Peng-Robinson equation of state for vapor phase and liquid hydrocarbon phase properties. The results of the simulation indicate that PZ in addition to the mixture of PZ and monoethanolamine (MEA) demand the highest regeneration heat duty compared with other studied single and blended amine solutions respectively. The blended amine solutions with the lowest PZ concentrations (5wt% and 10wt%) were considered and compared to reduce the cost of process, among which the blended solution of 10wt%PZ+35wt%MDEA (methyldiethanolamine) was found as the most appropriate solution in terms of CO2 content in the outlet gas, rich-CO2 loading and regeneration heat duty.
Abstract: Currently, in the field of object posture estimation, there is research on estimating the position and angle of an object by storing a 3D model of the object to be estimated in advance in a computer and matching it with the model. However, in this research, we have succeeded in creating a module that is much simpler, smaller in scale, and faster in operation. Our 6D pose estimation model consists of two different networks – a classification network and a regression network. From a single RGB image, the trained model estimates the class of the object in the image, the coordinates of the object, and its rotation angle in 3D space. In addition, we compared the estimation accuracy of each camera position, i.e., the angle from which the object was captured. The highest accuracy was recorded when the camera position was 75°, the accuracy of the classification was about 87.3%, and that of regression was about 98.9%.
Abstract: Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.
Abstract: This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.
Abstract: A high pressure carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption from a specific gas in a conventional column has been evaluated by the Aspen HYSYS simulator using a wide range of single absorbents and blended solutions to estimate the outlet CO2 concentration, absorption efficiency and CO2 loading to choose the most proper solution in terms of CO2 capture for environmental concerns. The property package (Acid Gas-Chemical Solvent) which is compatible with all applied solutions for the simulation in this study, estimates the properties based on an electrolyte non-random two-liquid (E-NRTL) model for electrolyte thermodynamics and Peng-Robinson equation of state for the vapor and liquid hydrocarbon phases. Among all the investigated single amines as well as blended solutions, piperazine (PZ) and the mixture of piperazine and monoethanolamine (MEA) have been found as the most effective absorbents respectively for CO2 absorption with high reactivity based on the simulated operational conditions.
Abstract: Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.
Abstract: Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m2 on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m2. In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 oC to 4.8 oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m2 causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.
Abstract: In Liberia, many of the agricultural households cultivate cassava for either sustenance purposes, or to generate farm income. Many of the concentrated cassava farmers reside in Nimba, a north-eastern County that borders two other economies: the Republics of Cote D’Ivoire and Guinea. With a high demand for cassava output and products in emerging Asian markets coupled with an objective of the Liberia agriculture policies to increase the competitiveness of valued agriculture crops; there is a need to examine the level of resource-use efficiency for many agriculture crops. However, there is a scarcity of information on the efficiency of many agriculture crops, including cassava. Hence the study applying an output-oriented method seeks to assess the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba County, Liberia. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to generate a sample for the study. From 216 cassava farmers, data related to on-farm attributes, socio-economic and institutional factors were collected. The stochastic frontier models, using the Translog functional forms, of production and revenue, were used to determine the level of revenue efficiency and its determinants. The result showed that most of the cassava farmers are male (60%). Many of the farmers are either married, engaged or living together with a spouse (83%), with a mean household size of nine persons. Farmland is prevalently obtained by inheritance (95%), average farm size is 1.34 hectares, and most cassava farmers did not access agriculture credits (76%) and extension services (91%). The mean cassava output per hectare is 1,506.02 kg, which estimates average revenue of L$23,551.16 (Liberian dollars). Empirical results showed that the revenue efficiency of cassava farmers varies from 0.1% to 73.5%; with the mean revenue efficiency of 12.9%. This indicates that on average, there is a vast potential of 87.1% to increase the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba by improving technical and allocative efficiencies. For the significant determinants of revenue efficiency, age and group membership had negative effects on revenue efficiency of cassava production; while farming experience, access to extension, formal education, and average wage rate have positive effects. The study recommends the setting-up and incentivizing of farmer field schools for cassava farmers to primarily share their farming experiences with others and to learn robust cultivation techniques of sustainable agriculture. Also, farm managers and farmers should consider a fix wage rate in labor contracts for all stages of cassava farming.
Abstract: This study estimates the private cost of Humanities and Education programs in public universities in Osun state, Nigeria, as well as the private monetary returns to Humanities and Education programs in public universities in the state. It also estimates the private rates of return to Humanities and Education programmes in public universities in Osun state; with the view of providing information on the relative profitability of investments in Humanities and Education programs in public universities in Osun state. The study adopted a descriptive survey research design. The population for the study consisted of all Humanities and Education students from public universities in Osun State and all Humanities and Education graduates who are workers in Osun state establishments. The sample was made up of 600 students and 120 workers. The students were selected through simple random sampling technique from the two public universities in the state while the workers were purposively selected from Osun state establishments. These workers were graduates of Humanities and Education programs. The selected programs included Bachelor of Arts (B.A.) in English, Bachelor of Education (B.Ed.) in English, B.A. in Religious Studies, B.Ed. in Religious Studies, B.A. in Yoruba and B.Ed. in Yoruba. Two research instruments were used, namely: Private Costs of University Education Questionnaire (PCUEQ) and Age Education Earnings of Workers Questionnaire (AEEWQ). The data were analyzed using compounding and discount cash flow techniques. The results showed that the private costs of Humanities and Education programs in public universities in Osun state were N855,935.59 and N694,269.34 respectively. The private monetary returns to Humanities and Education programs in public universities in the State were N9,052,859.28 and N9,052,859.28, respectively. The private rates of return to Humanities and Education programmes in public universities in Osun state were 27.36% and 34.40% respectively. The study concluded that it was more profitable to invest in Education programs than in Humanities programs at public universities in Osun state, Nigeria.
Abstract: Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.
Abstract: Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.
Abstract: Vehicular emission is the key source of air pollution in the urban environment. This includes both fine particles (PM2.5) and coarse particulate matters (PM10). However, particulate matter emissions from road traffic comprise emissions from exhaust tailpipe and emissions due to wear and tear of the vehicle part such as brake, tire and clutch and re-suspension of dust (non-exhaust emission). This study estimates the share of the two sources of pollutant particle emissions from on-roadside vehicles in the Addis Ababa municipality, Ethiopia. To calculate its share, two methods were applied; the exhaust-tailpipe emissions were calculated using the Europeans emission inventory Tier II method and Tier I for the non-exhaust emissions (like vehicle tire wear, brake, and road surface wear). The results show that of the total traffic-related particulate emissions in the city, 63% emitted from vehicle exhaust and the remaining 37% from non-exhaust sources. The annual roads transport exhaust emission shares around 2394 tons of particles from all vehicle categories. However, from the total yearly non-exhaust particulate matter emissions’ contribution, tire and brake wear shared around 65% and 35% emanated by road-surface wear. Furthermore, vehicle tire and brake wear were responsible for annual 584.8 tons of coarse particles (PM10) and 314.4 tons of fine particle matter (PM2.5) emissions in the city whereas surface wear emissions were responsible for around 313.7 tons of PM10 and 169.9 tons of PM2.5 pollutant emissions in the city. This suggests that non-exhaust sources might be as significant as exhaust sources and have a considerable contribution to the impact on air quality.
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.
Abstract: The objective of this work is to study the influence of the nonlinear behavior models of the concrete (concrete_BAEL and concrete_UNI) as well as the confinement brought by the transverse reinforcement on the seismic response of reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame). These models as well as the confinement are integrated in the Cast3m finite element calculation code. The consideration of confinement (TAC, taking into account the confinement) provided by the transverse reinforcement and the non-consideration of confinement (without consideration of containment, WCC) in the presence and absence of a vertical load is studied. The application was made on a reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame) with 3 levels and 2 spans. The results show that on the one hand, the concrete_BAEL model slightly underestimates the resistance of the RC/frame in the plastic field, whereas the concrete_uni model presents the best results compared to the simplified model "concrete_BAEL", on the other hand, for the concrete-uni model, taking into account the confinement has no influence on the behavior of the RC/frame under imposed displacement up to a vertical load of 500 KN.
Abstract: This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary
bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order
one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The
BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning
operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the
two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on
these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments
of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial
stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of
the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML)
estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution
properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model
are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where
BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate
Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of
the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation
experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained
are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model
is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in
Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed
cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model
is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate
a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on
the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide
reliable one-step ahead forecasts.
Abstract: The present paper reports the cracking moment estimates of a set of steel-reinforced, Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP)-reinforced and hybrid steel-FRP reinforced concrete beams, calculated from different analytical formulations in the codes, together with the experimental cracking load values. A total of three steel-reinforced, four FRP-reinforced, 12 hybrid FRP-steel over-reinforced and five hybrid FRP-steel under-reinforced concrete beam tests were analyzed within the scope of the study. Glass FRP (GFRP) and Basalt FRP (BFRP) bars were used in the beams as FRP bars. In under-reinforced hybrid beams, rupture of the FRP bars preceded crushing of concrete, while concrete crushing preceded FRP rupture in over-reinforced beams. In both types, steel yielding took place long before the FRP rupture and concrete crushing. The cracking moment mainly depends on two quantities, namely the moment of inertia of the section at the initiation of cracking and the flexural tensile strength of concrete, i.e. the modulus of rupture. In the present study, two different definitions of uncracked moment of inertia, i.e. the gross and the uncracked transformed moments of inertia, were adopted. Two analytical equations for the modulus of rupture (ACI 318M and Eurocode 2) were utilized in the calculations as well as the experimental tensile strength of concrete from prismatic specimen tests. The ACI 318M modulus of rupture expression produced cracking moment estimates closer to the experimental cracking moments of FRP-reinforced and hybrid FRP-steel reinforced concrete beams when used in combination with the uncracked transformed moment of inertia, yet the Eurocode 2 modulus of rupture expression gave more accurate cracking moment estimates in steel-reinforced concrete beams. All of the analytical definitions produced analytical values considerably different from the experimental cracking load values of the solely FRP-reinforced concrete beam specimens.
Abstract: The in-plane rigidity of light frame diaphragms has been investigated by researchers due to the importance of this subsystem regarding lateral force distribution between the lateral force resisting system (LFRS). Where research has lacked is in evaluating the impact of out-of-plane raigidity of the diaphragm on the deflection of shear walls. This study aims at investigating the effect of the diaphragm on the behavior of wood light-frame shear walls, in particular its out-of-plane rigidity was simulated by modeling the floors as beam. The out of plane stiffness of the diaphragm was investigated for idealized (infinitely stiff or flexible) as well as “realistic”. The results showed reductions in the shear wall deflection in the magnitude of approximately 80% considering the out of plane rigidity of the diaphragm. It was also concluded that considering conservative estimates of out-of-plane stiffness might lead to a very significant reduction in deflection and that assuming the floor diaphragm to be infinitely rigid out of plan seems to be reasonable. For diaphragms supported on multiple panels, further reduction in the deflection was observed. More work, particularly at the experimental level, is needed to verify the finding obtained in the numerical investigation related to the effect of out of plane diaphragm stiffness.