Abstract: Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.
Abstract: Since the reform and opening, the urbanization process of China has entered a rapid development period. In recent years, the authors participated in some projects of urban master planning in China and found a phenomenon that the rapid urbanization area of China is experiencing frequent adjustment process of urban master planning. This phenomenon is not the natural process of urbanization development. It may be caused by different government roles from different levels. Through the methods of investigation, data comparison and case study, this paper aims to explore the reason why the rapid urbanization area is experiencing frequent adjustment of master planning and give some solution strategies. Firstly, taking Changshou district of Chongqing city as an example, this paper wants to introduce the phenomenon about frequent adjustment process in China. And then, discuss distinct roles in the process between national government, provincial government and local government of China. At last, put forward preliminary solutions strategies for this area in China from the aspects of land use, intergovernmental cooperation and so on.
Abstract: The growth of Thai society in western style in the
middle of Rattanakosin period can be defined as modernization
/civilization. These terms had an influence on the development of the
country in the reign of King Rama V owing to the governance
reform, and cultures influenced by the West. Those were passed on
until the reign of King Rama VI. The preference was not only for the
renovation of architecture and arts based on Thai customs reflecting
the prosperity and beauty of handicrafts but also for the acceptance of
westernization. The remain of this acceptance includes the concept of
such value as gentlemanly behavior like that in Victorian Era of the
United Kingdom, and the support of women’s status. Moreover, the
wide spread of modernization leads to the movement to change the
country’s governance system from absolute monarchy to democracy
by a group of people called Rattanakosin Era (R.E.) 130 party.
Abstract: The fast growth in complexity coupled with requests for shorter development periods for embedded systems are bringing demands towards a more effective, i.e. higher-abstract, design process for hardaware/software integrated design. In Software Engineering area, Model Driven Architecture (MDA) and Executable UML (xUML) has been accepted to bring further improvement in software design. This paper constructs MDA and xUML stepwise transformations from an abstract specification model to a more concrete implementation model using the refactoring technique for hardaware/software integrated design. This approach provides clear and structured models which enables quick exploration and synthesis, and early stage verification.
Abstract: Lately management strategy that put Industrial Design (ID) in its core is recognized more important, as technology and price alone cannot differentiate a product. The needs to shorten the time to develop a product also shorten the development period of ID, and it necessitates the ID process management. This research analyzes the status of integration process of ID and Engineering Design (ED) of office equipment that requires the collaboration of ID and ED to clarify the issues for the efficiency of the development and to propose solutions.
Abstract: This evaluation of land supply system performance in
China shall examine the combination of government functions and
national goals in order to perform a cost-benefit analysis of system
results. From the author's point of view, it is most productive to
evaluate land supply system performance at moments of system
transformation for the following reasons. The behavior and
input-output change of beneficial results at different times can be
observed when the system or policy changes and system performance
can be evaluated through a cost-benefit analysis during the process of
system transformation. Moreover, this evaluation method can avoid
the influence of land resource endowment. Different land resource
endowment methods and different economy development periods
result in different systems. This essay studies the contents, principles
and methods of land supply system performance evaluation. Taking
Beijing as an example, this essay optimizes and classifies the land
supply index, makes a quantitative evaluation of land supply system
performance through principal component analysis (PCA), and finally
analyzes the factors that influence land supply system performance at
times of system transformation.
Abstract: This study adopts a qualitative approach, which
engages in the dialectical discussion on two levels of dyad opposite
views. The first level of the dyad opposite views is the Western
strategic perspective and the Eastern Tai-Chi thinking. The second
level of the dyad opposite views is resource-based view and resource
dependence theory. This study concludes the resource-oriented actions
for competitive advantage as the metaphor of Tai-Chi consisted of yin
and yang. This study argues that the focal firm should adopt bridging
strategy during the core competence development period because its
core competence development is likely to meet its competitor’s needs
of exploring strategy during the competitor’s external resource
development stage. In addition, the focal firm should adopt buffering
strategy during the external resource development period to prevent its
competitor’s the exploiting strategy from attack during the
competitor’s core competence development stage. Consequently, this
study takes a significant first step toward a novel contextualize
understanding of resource development based on strategic perspective
and Tai-Chi thinking providing more fully sustainable strategy for
competitive advantage.