Abstract: This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.
Abstract: For more efficient and fast video summarization, this paper presents a surveillance video summarization method. The presented method works to improve video summarization technique. This method depends on temporal differencing to extract most important data from large video stream. This method uses histogram differencing and Sum Conditional Variance which is robust against to illumination variations in order to extract motion objects. The experimental results showed that the presented method gives better output compared with temporal differencing based summarization techniques.
Abstract: Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the
influence of a number of variables on the conditional mean and
conditional variance of credit spread changes. The empirical analysis
in this paper is conducted within the context of bivariate GARCH-in-
Mean models, using the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show
that credit spread changes are determined by interest-rate and equityreturn
variables, which is in line with theory as provided by the
structural models of default. We also identify the credit spread
change volatility as an important determinant of credit spread
changes, and provide evidence on the transmission of volatility
between the variables under study.
Abstract: In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration
procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance
equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of
maximization of the likelihood function using first and second
derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The
advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other
optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with
assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH
algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives
according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in
a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of
returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically.
Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration
procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the
solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the
initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined.
The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close
to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in
framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid
stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry),
Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla
stocks (information-s-communications industry).
Abstract: This paper aims to present the main instruments used
in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out
on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect.
The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an
EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian
and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous
empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the
Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH
methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the
corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated
conditional variance on the two markets.