Abstract: The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.
Abstract: Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for representing
the spatio-temporal topology of the camera network with overlapping
and non-overlapping fields of view (FOVs). The topology is
determined by tracking moving objects and establishing object
correspondence across multiple cameras. To track people successfully
in multiple camera views, we used the Merge-Split (MS) approach for
object occlusion in a single camera and the grid-based approach for
extracting the accurate object feature. In addition, we considered the
appearance of people and the transition time between entry and exit
zones for tracking objects across blind regions of multiple cameras
with non-overlapping FOVs. The main contribution of this paper is to
estimate transition times between various entry and exit zones, and to
graphically represent the camera topology as an undirected weighted
graph using the transition probabilities.