Stock Price Forecast by Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Influence of Turbulence Model, Grid Resolution and Free-Stream Turbulence Intensity on the Numerical Simulation of the Flow Field around an Inclined Flat Plate

The flow field around a flat plate of infinite span has been investigated for several values of the angle of attack. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to examine the effect of turbulence model and grid resolution on the resultant aerodynamic forces acting on the plate. Also the influence of the free-stream turbulence intensity, at the entrance of the computational domain, has been investigated. A full campaign of simulations has been conducted for three inclination angles (9°, 15° and 30°), in order to obtain some practical guidelines to be used for the simulation of the flow field around inclined plates and discs.

Evaluation of the Effect of Rotor Solidity on the Performance of a H-Darrieus Turbine Adopting a Blade Element-Momentum Algorithm

The present study aims to evaluating the effect of rotor solidity - in terms of chord length for a given rotor diameter - on the performances of a small vertical axis Darrieus wind turbine. The proposed work focuses on both power production and rotor power coefficient, considering also the structural constraints deriving from the centrifugal forces due to rotor angular velocity. Also the smoothness of the resulting power curves have been investigated, in order to evaluate the controllability of the corresponding rotor architectures.

Utilization of Agro-Industrial Waste in Metal Matrix Composites: Towards Sustainability

The application of agro-industrial waste in Aluminum Metal Matrix Composites has been getting more attention as they can reinforce particles in metal matrix which enhance the strength properties of the composites. In addition, by applying these agroindustrial wastes in useful way not only save the manufacturing cost of products but also reduce the pollutions on environment. This paper represents a literature review on a range of industrial wastes and their utilization in metal matrix composites. The paper describes the synthesis methods of agro-industrial waste filled metal matrix composite materials and their mechanical, wear, corrosion, and physical properties. It also highlights the current application and future potential of agro-industrial waste reinforced composites in aerospace, automotive and other construction industries.

An Autonomous Collaborative Forecasting System Implementation – The First Step towards Successful CPFR System

In the past decade, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been regarded as an instrument for problem-solving and decision-making; indeed, they have already done with a substantial efficiency and effectiveness improvement in industries and businesses. In this paper, the Back-Propagation neural Networks (BPNs) will be modulated to demonstrate the performance of the collaborative forecasting (CF) function of a Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR®) system. CPFR functions the balance between the sufficient product supply and the necessary customer demand in a Supply and Demand Chain (SDC). Several classical standard BPN will be grouped, collaborated and exploited for the easy implementation of the proposed modular ANN framework based on the topology of a SDC. Each individual BPN is applied as a modular tool to perform the task of forecasting SKUs (Stock-Keeping Units) levels that are managed and supervised at a POS (point of sale), a wholesaler, and a manufacturer in an SDC. The proposed modular BPN-based CF system will be exemplified and experimentally verified using lots of datasets of the simulated SDC. The experimental results showed that a complex CF problem can be divided into a group of simpler sub-problems based on the single independent trading partners distributed over SDC, and its SKU forecasting accuracy was satisfied when the system forecasted values compared to the original simulated SDC data. The primary task of implementing an autonomous CF involves the study of supervised ANN learning methodology which aims at making “knowledgeable" decision for the best SKU sales plan and stocks management.

Numerical Analysis of Wind Loads on a Hemicylindrical Roof Building

The flow field over a three dimensional pole barn characterized by a cylindrical roof has been numerically investigated. Wind pressure and viscous loads acting on the agricultural building have been analyzed for several incoming wind directions, so as to evaluate the most critical load condition on the structure. A constant wind velocity profile, based on the maximum reference wind speed in the building site (peak gust speed worked out for 50 years return period) and on the local roughness coefficient, has been simulated. In order to contemplate also the hazard due to potential air wedging between the stored hay and the lower part of the ceiling, the effect of a partial filling of the barn has been investigated. The distribution of wind-induced loads on the structure have been determined, allowing a numerical quantification of the effect of wind direction on the induced stresses acting on a hemicylindrical roof.

Using Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Groundwater Depth in Union County Well

A concern that researchers usually face in different applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is determination of the size of effective domain in time series. In this paper, trial and error method was used on groundwater depth time series to determine the size of effective domain in the series in an observation well in Union County, New Jersey, U.S. different domains of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 120 preceding day were examined and the 80 days was considered as effective length of the domain. Data sets in different domains were fed to a Feed Forward Back Propagation ANN with one hidden layer and the groundwater depths were forecasted. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the correlation factor (R2) of estimated and observed groundwater depths for all domains were determined. In general, groundwater depth forecast improved, as evidenced by lower RMSEs and higher R2s, when the domain length increased from 20 to 120. However, 80 days was selected as the effective domain because the improvement was less than 1% beyond that. Forecasted ground water depths utilizing measured daily data (set #1) and data averaged over the effective domain (set #2) were compared. It was postulated that more accurate nature of measured daily data was the reason for a better forecast with lower RMSE (0.1027 m compared to 0.255 m) in set #1. However, the size of input data in this set was 80 times the size of input data in set #2; a factor that may increase the computational effort unpredictably. It was concluded that 80 daily data may be successfully utilized to lower the size of input data sets considerably, while maintaining the effective information in the data set.

Numerical Analysis of the Performance of the DU91-W2-250 Airfoil for Straight-Bladed Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine Application

This paper presents a numerical analysis of the performance of a three-bladed Darrieus vertical-axis wind turbine based on the DU91-W2-250 airfoil. A complete campaign of 2-D simulations, performed for several values of tip speed ratio and based on RANS unsteady calculations, has been performed to obtain the rotor torque and power curves. Rotor performances have been compared with the results of a previous work based on the use of the NACA 0021 airfoil. Both the power coefficient and the torque coefficient have been determined as a function of the tip speed ratio. The flow field around rotor blades has also been analyzed. As a final result, the performance of the DU airfoil based rotor appears to be lower than the one based on the NACA 0021 blade section. This behavior could be due to the higher stall characteristics of the NACA profile, being the separation zone at the trailing edge more extended for the DU airfoil.

Numerical Analysis of the Influence of Tip Devices on the Power Coefficient of a VAWT

The aerodynamic performances of vertical axis wind turbines are highly affected by tip vortexes. In the present work, different tip devices are considered and simulated against a baseline rotor configuration, with the aim of identifying the best tip architecture. Three different configurations are tested: winglets, an elliptic termination and an aerodynamic bulkhead. A comparative analysis on the most promising architectures is conducted, focusing also on blade torque evolution during a full revolution of the rotor blade. The most promising technology is concluded to be a well designed winglet.

Effect of Dynamic Stall, Finite Aspect Ratio and Streamtube Expansion on VAWT Performance Prediction using the BE-M Model

A multiple-option analytical model for the evaluation of the energy performance and distribution of aerodynamic forces acting on a vertical-axis Darrieus wind turbine depending on both rotor architecture and operating conditions is presented. For this purpose, a numerical algorithm, capable of generating the desired rotor conformation depending on design geometric parameters, is coupled to a Single/Double-Disk Multiple-Streamtube Blade Element – Momentum code. Both single and double-disk configurations are analyzed and model predictions are compared to literature experimental data in order to test the capability of the code for predicting rotor performance. Effective airfoil characteristics based on local blade Reynolds number are obtained through interpolation of literature low-Reynolds airfoil databases. Some corrections are introduced inside the original model with the aim of simulating also the effects of blade dynamic stall, rotor streamtube expansion and blade finite aspect ratio, for which a new empirical relationship to better fit the experimental data is proposed. In order to predict also open field rotor operation, a freestream wind shear profile is implemented, reproducing the effect of atmospheric boundary layer.

Preliminary Evaluation of Feasibility for Wind Energy Production on Offshore Extraction Platforms

A preliminary evaluation of the feasibility of installing small wind turbines on offshore oil and gas extraction platforms is presented. Some aerodynamic considerations are developed in order to determine the best rotor architecture to exploit the wind potential on such installations, assuming that wind conditions over the platforms are similar to those registered on the roofs of urban buildings. Economical considerations about both advantages and disadvantages of the exploitation of wind energy on offshore extraction platforms with respect to conventional offshore wind plants, is also presented. Finally, wind charts of European offshore winds are presented together with a map of the major offshore installations.

Numerical Analysis of the Influence of Airfoil Asymmetry on VAWT Performance

This paper presents a model for the evaluation of energy performance and aerodynamic forces acting on a three-bladed small vertical axis Darrieus wind turbine depending on blade chord curvature with respect to rotor axis. The adopted survey methodology is based on an analytical code coupled to a solid modeling software, capable of generating the desired blade geometry depending on the blade design geometric parameters, which is linked to a finite volume CFD code for the calculation of rotor performance. After describing and validating the model with experimental data, the results of numerical simulations are proposed on the bases of two different blade profile architectures, which are respectively characterized by a straight chord and by a curved one, having a chord radius equal to rotor external circumference. A CFD campaign of analysis is completed for three blade-candidate airfoil sections, that is the recently-developed DU 06-W-200 cambered blade profile, a classical symmetrical NACA 0021 and its derived cambered airfoil, characterized by a curved chord, having a chord radius equal to rotor external circumference. The effects of blade chord curvature on angle of attack, blade tangential and normal forces are first investigated and then the overall rotor torque and power are analyzed as a function of blade azimuthal position, achieving a numerical quantification of the influence of blade camber on overall rotor performance.

Preliminary Assessment of Feasibility of a Wind Energy Conversion System for a Martian Probe or Surface Rover

Nuclear energy sources have been widely used in the past decades in order to power spacecraft subsystems. Nevertheless, their use has attracted controversy because of the risk of harmful material released into the atmosphere if an accident were to occur during the launch phase of the mission, leading to the general adoption of photovoltaic systems. As compared to solar cells, wind turbines have a great advantage on Mars, as they can continuously produce power both during dust storms and at night-time: this paper focuses on the potential of a wind energy conversion system (WECS) considering the atmospheric conditions on Mars. Wind potential on Martian surface has been estimated, as well as the average energy requirements of a Martian probe or surface rover. Finally, the expected daily energy output of the WECS has been computed on the basis of both the swept area of the rotor and the equivalent wind speed at the landing site.

A Web Text Mining Flexible Architecture

Text Mining is an important step of Knowledge Discovery process. It is used to extract hidden information from notstructured o semi-structured data. This aspect is fundamental because much of the Web information is semi-structured due to the nested structure of HTML code, much of the Web information is linked, much of the Web information is redundant. Web Text Mining helps whole knowledge mining process to mining, extraction and integration of useful data, information and knowledge from Web page contents. In this paper, we present a Web Text Mining process able to discover knowledge in a distributed and heterogeneous multiorganization environment. The Web Text Mining process is based on flexible architecture and is implemented by four steps able to examine web content and to extract useful hidden information through mining techniques. Our Web Text Mining prototype starts from the recovery of Web job offers in which, through a Text Mining process, useful information for fast classification of the same are drawn out, these information are, essentially, job offer place and skills.

Implementation of a “DIVA“ Concept withspecific Elisa Kits; When Subunit H5 Avian Influenza Vaccine is used

The main objective of this study was to demonstrate that differentiation of infected and vaccinated animals (DIVA) strategy using different ELISA tests is possible when a subunit vaccine (Haemagglutinin protein) is used to prevent Avian influenza. Special emphasis was placed on the differentiation in the serological response to different components of the AIV (Nucleoprotein, Neuraminidase, Haemagglutinin, Nucleocapsid) between chickens that were vaccinated with a whole virus kill vaccine and recombinant vaccine. Furthermore, the potential use of this DIVA strategy using ELISA assays to detect Neuraminidase 1 (N1) was analyzed as strategy in countries where the field virus is H5N1 and the vaccine used is formulated with H5N2. Detection of AIV-s antibodies to any component in serum was negative for all animals on the study days 0-13. At study day 14 the titers of antibodies against Nucleoprotein (NP) and Nucleocapsid (NC) rose in the experimental groups vaccinated with Volvac® AI KV and were negatives during all the trial in the experimental groups vaccinated with a subunit H5; significant statistically differences were observed between these groups (p < 0.05). The seroconversion either Haemagglutinin or Neuraminidase was evident after 21 days post-vaccination in the experimental groups vaccinated with the respective viral fraction. Regarding the main aim of this study and according with the results that were obtained, use a combination of different ELISA test as a DIVA strategy is feasible when the vaccination is carry out with a subunit H5 vaccine. Also is possible to use the ELISA kit to detect Neuraminidase (either N1 or N2) as a DIVA concept in countries where H5N1 is present and the vaccination programs are done with H5N2 vaccine.

Numerical Simulation of the Flow Field around a 30° Inclined Flat Plate

This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow around a 30° inclined flat plate of infinite span. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a flat plate invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested and flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been numerically investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional inclined plate.

Feature-Driven Classification of Musical Styles

In this paper we address the problem of musical style classification, which has a number of applications like indexing in musical databases or automatic composition systems. Starting from MIDI files of real-world improvisations, we extract the melody track and cut it into overlapping segments of equal length. From these fragments, some numerical features are extracted as descriptors of style samples. We show that a standard Bayesian classifier can be conveniently employed to build an effective musical style classifier, once this set of features has been extracted from musical data. Preliminary experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed classifier that represents the first component of a musical audio retrieval system

Comparison of Two Airfoil Sections for Application in Straight-Bladed Darrieus VAWT

This paper presents a model for the evaluation of energy performance and aerodynamic forces acting on a small straight-bladed Darrieus-type vertical axis wind turbine depending on blade geometrical section. It consists of an analytical code coupled to a solid modeling software, capable of generating the desired blade geometry based on the desired blade design geometric parameters. Such module is then linked to a finite volume commercial CFD code for the calculation of rotor performance by integration of the aerodynamic forces along the perimeter of each blade for a full period of revolution.After describing and validating the computational model with experimental data, the results of numerical simulations are proposed on the bases of two candidate airfoil sections, that is a classical symmetrical NACA 0021 blade profile and the recently developed DU 06-W-200 non-symmetric and laminar blade profile.Through a full CFD campaign of analysis, the effects of blade geometrical section on angle of attack are first investigated and then the overall rotor torque and power are analyzed as a function of blade azimuthal position, achieving a numerical quantification of the influence of airfoil geometry on overall rotor performance.

Numerical Evaluation of the Aerodynamic Efficiency of the Stevens and Jolly Vertical- Axis Windmill (1895)

This paper presents a numerical investigation of the unsteady flow around an American 19th century vertical-axis windmill: the Stevens & Jolly rotor, patented on April 16, 1895. The computational approach used is based on solving the complete transient Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (t-RANS) equations: a full campaign of numerical simulation has been performed using the k-ω SST turbulence model. Flow field characteristics have been investigated for several values of tip speed ratio and for a constant unperturbed free-stream wind velocity of 6 m/s, enabling the study of some unsteady flow phenomena in the rotor wake. Finally, the global power generated from the windmill has been determined for each simulated angular velocity, allowing the calculation of the rotor power-curve.

A Retrospective of Wind Turbine Architectural Integration in the Built Environment

Since the European renewable energy directives set the target for 22.1% of electricity generation to be supplied by 2010 [1], there has been increased interest in using green technologies also within the urban enviroment. The most commonly considered installations are solar thermal and solar photovoltaics. Nevertheless, as observed by Bahaj et al. [2], small scale turbines can reduce the built enviroment related CO2 emissions. Thus, in the last few years, an increasing number of manufacturers have developed small wind turbines specifically designed for the built enviroment. The present work focuses on the integration into architectural systems of such installations and presents a survey of successful case studies.