Abstract: Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from
atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated
hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational
in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km
have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF.
In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast
precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined.
The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn
State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed
rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification
indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low
and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Pua Watershed whereas located in the Upper Nan River Basin in Nan province, Thailand. Nan River basin originated in Nan province that comprises of many tributary streams to produce as inflow to the Sirikit dam provided huge reservoir with the storage capacity of 9510 million cubic meters. The common problems of most watersheds were found i.e. shortage water supply for consumption and agriculture utilizations, deteriorate of water quality, flood and landslide including debris flow, and unstable of riverbank. The Pua Watershed is one of several small river basins that flow through the Nan River Basin. The watershed includes 404 km2 representing the Pua District, the Upper Nan Basin, or the whole Nan River Basin, of 61.5%, 18.2% or 1.2% respectively. The Pua River is a main stream producing all year streamflow supplying the Pua District and an inflow to the Upper Nan Basin. Its length approximately 56.3 kilometers with an average slope of the channel by 1.9% measured. A diversion weir namely Pua weir bound the plain and mountainous areas with a very steep slope of the riverbed to 2.9% and drainage area of 149 km2 as upstream watershed while a mild slope of the riverbed to 0.2% found in a river reach of 20.3 km downstream of this weir, which considered as a gauged basin. However, the major branch streams of the Pua River are ungauged catchments namely: Nam Kwang and Nam Koon with the drainage area of 86 and 35 km2 respectively. These upstream watersheds produce runoff through the 3-streams downstream of Pua weir, Jao weir, and Kang weir, with an averaged annual runoff of 578 million cubic meters. They were analyzed using both statistical data at Pua weir and simulated data resulted from the hydrologic modeling system (HEC–HMS) which applied for the remaining ungauged basins. Since the Kwang and Koon catchments were limited with lack of hydrological data included streamflow and rainfall. Therefore, the mathematical modeling: HEC-HMS with the Snyder-s hydrograph synthesized and transposed methods were applied for those areas using calibrated hydrological parameters from the upstream of Pua weir with continuously daily recorded of streamflow and rainfall data during 2008-2011. The results showed that the simulated daily streamflow and sum up as annual runoff in 2008, 2010, and 2011 were fitted with observed annual runoff at Pua weir using the simple linear regression with the satisfied correlation R2 of 0.64, 062, and 0.59, respectively. The sensitivity of simulation results were come from difficulty using calibrated parameters i.e. lag-time, coefficient of peak flow, initial losses, uniform loss rates, and missing some daily observed data. These calibrated parameters were used to apply for the other 2-ungauged catchments and downstream catchments simulated.
Abstract: Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a
challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of
global warming is creating complications in environmental issues.
These factors which are data intensive require high performance
computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper
describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid
environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural
building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding
computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface,
secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained
using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that
computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for
decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be
attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for
job execution.
Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing
and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays
an important role not only in business, but also in scientific
implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to
explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices
from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change
detection.
Abstract: Dengue fever has become a major concern for health
authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries.
These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying
outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever
(DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main
causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper,
therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may
influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold,
firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the
relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of
explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for
explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most.
The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover,
percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum
temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and
Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The
results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from
July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of
daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly
influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their
occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be
significant only after 2 weeks.
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology to harvest the kinetic energy of the raindrops using piezoelectric devices. In the study 1m×1m PVDF (Polyvinylidene fluoride) piezoelectric membrane, which is fixed by the four edges, is considered for the numerical simulation on deformation of the membrane due to the impact of the raindrops. Then according to the drop size of the rain, the simulation is performed classifying the rainfall types into three categories as light stratiform rain, moderate stratiform rain and heavy thundershower. The impact force of the raindrop is dependent on the terminal velocity of the raindrop, which is a function of raindrop diameter. The results were then analyzed to calculate the harvestable energy from the deformation of the piezoelectric membrane.
Abstract: As the global climate changes, the threat from
landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed
initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting
landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important.
Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area
distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in
the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics
show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme
rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme
rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong
River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a
lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be
attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that
are included in the landslide area.
Abstract: The soil moisture content is an important property of
the soil. The results of mean weekly gravimetric soil moisture
content, measured for the three soil layers within the A horizon,
showed that it was higher for the top 5 cm over the whole period of
monitoring (15/7/2004 up to 10/11/05) with the variation becoming
greater during winter time. This reflects the pattern of rainfall in
Ireland which is spread over the whole year and shows that light
rainfall events during summer time were compensated by loss
through evapotranspiration, but only in the top 5 cm of soil. This
layer had the highest porosity and highest moisture holding capacity
due to the high content of organic matter. The gravimetric soil
moisture contents of the top 5 cm and the underlying 5-15 and 15-25
cm layers show that bottom site of the Hill Field had higher soil
moisture content than the middle and top sites during the whole
period of monitoring.
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: This research examines possible effects of climatic
change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world
agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed
to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario
were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was
reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider
results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary
agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are
obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model.
Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or
regions will have different trends depending on the context. These
alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population,
temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of
environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food
in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental
policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant
further investigation.
Abstract: Among all geo-hydrological relationships, rainfallrunoff
relationship is of utmost importance in any hydrological
investigation and water resource planning. Spatial variation, lag time
involved in obtaining areal estimates for the basin as a whole can
affect the parameterization in design stage as well as in planning
stage. In conventional hydrological processing of data, spatial aspect
is either ignored or interpolated at sub-basin level. Temporal
variation when analysed for different stages can provide clues for its
spatial effectiveness. The interplay of space-time variation at pixel
level can provide better understanding of basin parameters.
Sustenance of design structures for different return periods and their
spatial auto-correlations should be studied at different geographical
scales for better management and planning of water resources.
In order to understand the relative effect of spatio-temporal
variation in hydrological data network, a detailed geo-hydrological
analysis of Betwa river catchment falling in Lower Yamuna Basin is
presented in this paper. Moreover, the exact estimates about the
availability of water in the Betwa river catchment, especially in the
wake of recent Betwa-Ken linkage project, need thorough scientific
investigation for better planning. Therefore, an attempt in this
direction is made here to analyse the existing hydrological and
meteorological data with the help of SPSS, GIS and MS-EXCEL
software. A comparison of spatial and temporal correlations at subcatchment
level in case of upper Betwa reaches has been made to
demonstrate the representativeness of rain gauges. First, flows at
different locations are used to derive correlation and regression
coefficients. Then, long-term normal water yield estimates based on
pixel-wise regression coefficients of rainfall-runoff relationship have
been mapped. The areal values obtained from these maps can
definitely improve upon estimates based on point-based
extrapolations or areal interpolations.
Abstract: Heavy rainfall greatly affects the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. There are many accidents of aircraft caused by aerodynamic efficiency degradation by heavy rain.
In this Paper we have studied the heavy rain effects on the aerodynamic efficiency of cambered NACA 64-210 and symmetric
NACA 0012 airfoils. Our results show significant increase in drag and decrease in lift. We used preprocessing software gridgen for creation of geometry and mesh, used fluent as solver and techplot as postprocessor. Discrete phase modeling called DPM is used to model the rain particles using two phase flow approach. The rain particles are assumed to be inert.
Both airfoils showed significant decrease in lift and increase in drag in simulated rain environment. The most significant difference between these two airfoils was the NACA 64-210 more sensitivity than NACA 0012 to liquid water content (LWC). We believe that the results showed in this paper will be useful for the designer of the commercial aircrafts and UAVs, and will be helpful for training of the pilots to control the airplanes in heavy rain.
Abstract: The article deals with the relation between rainfall in selected months and subsequent weed infestation of spring barley. The field experiment was performed at Mendel University agricultural enterprise in Žabčice, Czech Republic. Weed infestation was measured in spring barley vegetation in years 2004 to 2012. Barley was grown in three tillage variants: conventional tillage technology (CT), minimization tillage technology (MT), and no tillage (NT). Precipitation was recorded in one-day intervals. Monthly precipitation was calculated from the measured values in the months of October through to April. The technique of canonical correspondence analysis was applied for further statistical processing. 41 different species of weeds were found in the course of the 9-year monitoring period. The results clearly show that precipitation affects the incidence of most weed species in the selected months, but acts differently in the monitored variants of tillage technologies.
Abstract: Drought is a phenomenon caused by
environmental and climatic changes. This phenomenon is
affected by shortage of rainfall and temperature. Dust is one
of important environmental problems caused by climate
change and drought. With recent multi-year drought, many
environmental crises caused by dust in Iran and Middle East.
Dust in the vast areas of the provinces occurs with high
frequency. By dust affecting many problems created in terms
of health, social and economic. In this study, we tried to study
the most important factors causing dust. In this way we have
used the satellite images and meteorological data. Finally,
strategies to deal with the dust will be mentioned.
Abstract: The mountain road slope failures triggered by
earthquake activities and torrential rain namely to create the disaster.
Province Road No. 24 is a main route to the Wutai Township. The area
of the study is located at the mileages between 46K and 47K along the
road. However, the road has been suffered frequent damages as a result
of landslide and slope failures during typhoon seasons. An
understanding of the sliding behaviors in the area appears to be
necessary. Slope failures triggered by earthquake activities and heavy
rainfalls occur frequently. The study is to understand the mechanism
of slope failures and to look for the way to deal with the situation. In
order to achieve these objectives, this paper is based on theoretical and
structural geology data interpretation program to assess the potential
slope sliding behavior. The study showed an intimate relationship
between the landslide behavior of the slopes and the stratum materials,
based on structural geology analysis method to analysis slope stability
and finds the slope safety coefficient to predict the sites of destroyed
layer. According to the case study and parameter analyses results, the
slope mainly slips direction compared to the site located in the
southeast area. Find rainfall to result in the rise of groundwater level is
main reason of the landslide mechanism. Future need to set up
effective horizontal drain at corrective location, that can effective
restrain mountain road slope failures and increase stability of slope.
Abstract: Estimation of stormwater pollutants is a pre-requisite
for the protection and improvement of the aquatic environment and
for appropriate management options. The usual practice for the
stormwater quality prediction is performed through water quality
modeling. However, the accuracy of the prediction by the models
depends on the proper estimation of model parameters. This paper
presents the estimation of model parameters for a catchment water
quality model developed for the continuous simulation of stormwater
pollutants from a catchment to the catchment outlet. The model is
capable of simulating the accumulation and transportation of the
stormwater pollutants; suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN) and
total phosphorus (TP) from a particular catchment. Rainfall and water
quality data were collected for the Hotham Creek Catchment (HTCC),
Gold Coast, Australia. Runoff calculations from the developed model
were compared with the calculated discharges from the widely used
hydrological models, WBNM and DRAINS. Based on the measured
water quality data, model water quality parameters were calibrated
for the above-mentioned catchment. The calibrated parameters are
expected to be helpful for the best management practices (BMPs)
of the region. Sensitivity analyses of the estimated parameters were
performed to assess the impacts of the model parameters on overall
model estimations of runoff water quality.
Abstract: A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate
the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model,
average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine
the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito.
Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching
rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition
matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs,
larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of
mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a
heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito
abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.
Abstract: Until recently, energy security and climate change
were considered separate issues to be dealt with by policymakers.
The two issues are now converging, challenging the security and
climate communities to develop a better understanding of how to deal
with both issues simultaneously. Although Egypt is not a major
contributor to the world's total GHG emissions, it is particularly
vulnerable to the potential effects of global climate change such as
rising sea levels and changed patterns of rainfall in the Nile Basin.
Climate change is a major threat to sustainable growth and
development in Egypt, and the achievement of the Millennium
Development Goals. Egypt-s capacity to respond to the challenges of
climate instability will be expanded by improving overall resilience,
integrating climate change goals into sustainable development
strategies, increasing the use of modern energy systems with reduced
carbon intensity, and strengthening international initiatives. This
study seeks to establish a framework for considering the complex and
evolving links between energy security and climate change,
applicable to Egypt.
Abstract: The study concerns an experimental investigation in
the laboratory of the water erosion using a rainfall simulator. We
have focused our attention on the influence of rainfall intensity on
some hydraulic characteristics. The results obtained allow us to
conclude that there is a significant correlation between rainfall
intensity and hydraulic characteristics of runoff (Reynolds number,
Froude number) and sediment concentration.
Abstract: Climate change is a cumulative change in weather
patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric
Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and
magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data.
Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the
magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS
named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing
the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of
meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly
meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over
different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and
minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant
increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant
decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found.
However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.
Abstract: Drought is one of the most important natural disasters which is probable to occur in all regions with completely different climates and in addition to causing death. It results in many economic losses and social consequences. For this reason. Studying the effects and losses caused by drought which include limitation or shortage of agricultural and drinking water resources. Decreased rainfall and increased evapotranspiration. Limited plant growth and decreased agricultural products. Especially those of dry-farming. Lower levels of surface and ground waters and increased immigrations. Etc. in the country is statistical period (1988-2007) for six stations in Roudbar town were used for statistical analysis and calculating humid and dry years. The dependable rainfall index (DRI) was the main method used in this research. Results showed that during the said statistical period and also during the years 1996-1998 and 2007. more than half of the stations had faced drought. With consideration of the conducted studies. Drawing diagrams and comparing the available data with those of dry and humid years it was found that drought affected agricultural products (e.g.olive) in a way that during the year 1996 1996 drought. Olive groves of Roudbar suffered the greatest damages. Whereupon about 70% of the crops were lost.