Abstract: Cities in their historical evolution have always adapted their internal structure to the needs of society (for example protective city walls during classicism era lost their defense function, became unnecessary, were demolished and gave space for new features such as roads, museums or parks). Today it is necessary to modify the internal structure of the city in order to minimize the impact of climate changes on the environment of the population. This article discusses the results of the Urban Climate model owned by VITO, which was carried out as part of a project from the European Union's Horizon grant agreement No 730004 Pan-European Urban Climate Services Climate-Fit city. The use of the model was aimed at changes in land use and land cover in cities related to urban heat islands (UHI). The task of the application was to evaluate possible land use change scenarios in connection with city requirements and ideas. Two pilot areas in the Czech Republic were selected. One is Ostrava and the other Hodonín. The paper provides a demonstration of the application of the model for various possible future development scenarios. It contains an assessment of the suitability or inappropriateness of scenarios of future development depending on the temperature increase. Cities that are preparing to reconstruct the public space are interested in eliminating proposals that would lead to an increase in temperature stress as early as in the assignment phase. If they have evaluation on the unsuitability of some type of design, they can limit it into the proposal phases. Therefore, especially in the application of models on Local level - in 1 m spatial resolution, it was necessary to show which type of proposals would create a significant temperature island in its implementation. Such a type of proposal is considered unsuitable. The model shows that the building itself can create a shady place and thus contribute to the reduction of the UHI. If it sensitively approaches the protection of existing greenery, this new construction may not pose a significant problem. More massive interventions leading to the reduction of existing greenery create a new heat island space.
Abstract: As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.
Abstract: People on construction scaffoldings work in dynamically changing, often unfavourable climate. Additionally, this kind of work is performed on low stiffness structures at high altitude, which increases the risk of accidents. It is therefore desirable to define the parameters of the work environment that contribute to increasing the construction worker occupational safety level. The aim of this article is to present how changes in microclimate parameters on scaffolding can impact the development of dangerous situations and accidents. For this purpose, indicators based on the human thermal balance were used. However, use of this model under construction conditions is often burdened by significant errors or even impossible to implement due to the lack of precise data. Thus, in the target model, the modified parameter was used – apparent environmental temperature. Apparent temperature in the proposed Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model has been a perceived outdoor temperature, caused by the combined effects of air temperature, radiative temperature, relative humidity and wind speed (wind chill index, heat index). In the paper, correlations between component factors and apparent temperature for facade scaffolding with a width of 24.5 m and a height of 42.3 m, located at south-west side of building are presented. The distribution of factors on the scaffolding has been used to evaluate fitting of the microclimate model. The results of the studies indicate that observed ranges of apparent temperature on the scaffolds frequently results in a worker’s inability to adapt. This leads to reduced concentration and increased fatigue, adversely affects health, and consequently increases the risk of dangerous situations and accidental injuries
Abstract: In this study, an application was carried out to determine the Volcanic Soils by using remote sensing. The study area was located on the Golcuk formation in Isparta-Turkey. The thermal bands of Landsat 7 image were used for processing. The implementation of the climate model that was based on the water index was used in ERDAS Imagine software together with pixel based image classification. Soil Moisture Index (SMI) was modeled by using the surface temperature (Ts) which was obtained from thermal bands and vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 7. Surface moisture values were grouped and classified by using scoring system. Thematic layers were compared together with the field studies. Consequently, different moisture levels for volcanic soils were indicator for determination and separation. Those thermal wavelengths are preferable bands for separation of volcanic soils using moisture and temperature models.
Abstract: In order to utilize results from global climate models,
dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques have been
developed. For dynamical downscaling, usually a limited area
numerical model is used, with associated high computational cost.
This research proposes dynamic equation for specific space-time
regional climate downscaling from the Educational Global Climate
Model (EdGCM) for Southeast Asia. The equation is for surface air
temperature. This equation provides downscaling values of surface
air temperature at any specific location and time without running a
regional climate model. In the proposed equations, surface air
temperature is approximated from ground temperature, sensible heat
flux and 2m wind speed. Results from the application of the equation
show that the errors from the proposed equations are less than the
errors for direct interpolation from EdGCM.
Abstract: This study presents the moisture variations of
unbound layers from April 2012 to January 2014 in the Interstate 40
(I-40) pavement section in New Mexico. Three moisture probes were
installed at different layers inside the pavement which measure the
continuous moisture variations of the unbound layers. Data show that
the moisture contents of unbound layers are typically constant
throughout the day and month unless there is rainfall. Moisture
contents of all unbound layers change with rainfall. Change in ground
water table may affect the moisture content of unbound layers which
has not been investigated in this study. In addition, the Level 3
predictions of moisture contents using the Pavement Mechanistic-
Empirical (ME) Design software were compared and found quite
reasonable. However, results presented in the current study may not
be applicable for pavement in other regions.
Abstract: Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns
with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes.
Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become
increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty
related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed
changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an
increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although
the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general
picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and
frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary
characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate
change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic
downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models
(RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric
physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields
as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture
the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a
basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical
relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called
predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands.
The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical
downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological
variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then
served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to
obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other
hydrological variables of interest.
Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate
causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global
temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century
and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the
primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in
temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred
within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and
policymakers ignore the anthropogenic influence (greenhouse gases)
on global warming on the pretense of lack of agreement among
various climate models and their inability to account for all the
necessary factors of global warming at all levels the current efforts of
greenhouse emissions control and global warming as a whole could
be exacerbated.
Abstract: All climate models agree that the temperature in
Greece will increase in the range of 1° to 2°C by the year 2030 and
mean sea level in Mediterranean is expected to rise at the rate of 5
cm/decade. The aim of the present paper is the estimation of the
coastline displacement driven by the climate change and sea level
rise. In order to achieve that, all known statistical and non-statistical
computational methods are employed on some Greek coastal areas.
Furthermore, Kalman filtering techniques are for the first time
introduced, formulated and tested. Based on all the above, shoreline
change signals and noises are computed and an inter-comparison
between the different methods can be deduced to help evaluating
which method is most promising as far as the retrieve of shoreline
change rate is concerned.
Abstract: To simulate expected climate change, we implemented a two-factor (temperature and soil moisture) field design in a forest in Ontario, Canada. To manipulate moisture input, we erected rain-exclusion structures. Under each structure, plots were watered with one of three treatments and thermally controlled with three heat treatments to simulate changes in air temperature and rainfall based on the climate model (GCM) predictions for the study area. Environmental conditions (including untreated controls) were monitored tracking air temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, and photosynthetically active radiation. We measured rainfall and relative humidity at the site outside the rain-exclusion structures. Analyses of environmental conditions demonstrates that the temperature manipulation was most effective at maintaining target temperature during the early part of the growing season, but it was more difficult to keep the warmest treatment at 5º C above ambient by late summer. Target moisture regimes were generally achieved however incoming solar radiation was slightly attenuated by the structures.
Abstract: Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a
challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of
global warming is creating complications in environmental issues.
These factors which are data intensive require high performance
computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper
describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid
environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural
building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding
computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface,
secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained
using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that
computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for
decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be
attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for
job execution.
Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing
and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays
an important role not only in business, but also in scientific
implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to
explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices
from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change
detection.
Abstract: The effects of global warming on India vary from the
submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of
glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate
of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In
India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a
result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become
increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is
expected to continue.
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental
challenges, with implications for food production, water supply,
health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good
scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and
global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge
of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more
effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies
designed to make national and regional development paths more
sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate
policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will
affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development
goals.
A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 =
0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the
Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal,
India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural
activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential
Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the
years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable
development of the river basin and its inhabitants.
India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as
an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation.
This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building,
networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a
commitment towards the planning, management and development of
the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed
future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over
the mentioned time period.
India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the
remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence
that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high.
In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss
of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP.
Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall
deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon
variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal
mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the
changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at
modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical
region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all
interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is
likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more
volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies
worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system,
particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great
concern for regional water and food security.
The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen
projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content,
potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to
reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041-
2050.