Abstract: Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.
Abstract: The main aim of this work is to establish the
capabilities of new green buildings to ascertain off-grid electricity
generation based on the integration of wind turbines in the
conceptual model of a rotating tower [2] in Dubai. An in depth
performance analysis of the WinWind 3.0MW [3] wind turbine is
performed. Data based on the Dubai Meteorological Services is
collected and analyzed in conjunction with the performance analysis
of this wind turbine. The mathematical model is compared with
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results based on a conceptual
rotating tower design model. The comparison results are further
validated and verified for accuracy by conducting experiments on a
scaled prototype of the tower design. The study concluded that
integrating wind turbines inside a rotating tower can generate enough
electricity to meet the required power consumption of the building,
which equates to a wind farm containing 9 horizontal axis wind
turbines located at an approximate area of 3,237,485 m2 [14].
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: Visible Light Communication (VLC) offers advantages of low energy consumption, licence free and RF interference free operation. One application area for VLC is in the provision of health centred services circumventing issues of interference with any biomedical device within the environment. VLC performamce is affected by natural light restricting systems avilability and relibility. The paper presents an analysis of the performance of VLC systems under different meteorological conditions. The evaluation considered the impact of natural light as a function of different reflection surfaces in different room sizes.
Abstract: The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of
pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic
and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an
attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality
status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road,
GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield
and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the
major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter
(SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The
sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial,
residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are
contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide
(SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined
petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of
nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the
permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular
matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between
model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2,
0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is
observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the
best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the
cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be
attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the
volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of
automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological
conditions, etc.
Abstract: To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.
Abstract: Among all geo-hydrological relationships, rainfallrunoff
relationship is of utmost importance in any hydrological
investigation and water resource planning. Spatial variation, lag time
involved in obtaining areal estimates for the basin as a whole can
affect the parameterization in design stage as well as in planning
stage. In conventional hydrological processing of data, spatial aspect
is either ignored or interpolated at sub-basin level. Temporal
variation when analysed for different stages can provide clues for its
spatial effectiveness. The interplay of space-time variation at pixel
level can provide better understanding of basin parameters.
Sustenance of design structures for different return periods and their
spatial auto-correlations should be studied at different geographical
scales for better management and planning of water resources.
In order to understand the relative effect of spatio-temporal
variation in hydrological data network, a detailed geo-hydrological
analysis of Betwa river catchment falling in Lower Yamuna Basin is
presented in this paper. Moreover, the exact estimates about the
availability of water in the Betwa river catchment, especially in the
wake of recent Betwa-Ken linkage project, need thorough scientific
investigation for better planning. Therefore, an attempt in this
direction is made here to analyse the existing hydrological and
meteorological data with the help of SPSS, GIS and MS-EXCEL
software. A comparison of spatial and temporal correlations at subcatchment
level in case of upper Betwa reaches has been made to
demonstrate the representativeness of rain gauges. First, flows at
different locations are used to derive correlation and regression
coefficients. Then, long-term normal water yield estimates based on
pixel-wise regression coefficients of rainfall-runoff relationship have
been mapped. The areal values obtained from these maps can
definitely improve upon estimates based on point-based
extrapolations or areal interpolations.
Abstract: Drought is a phenomenon caused by
environmental and climatic changes. This phenomenon is
affected by shortage of rainfall and temperature. Dust is one
of important environmental problems caused by climate
change and drought. With recent multi-year drought, many
environmental crises caused by dust in Iran and Middle East.
Dust in the vast areas of the provinces occurs with high
frequency. By dust affecting many problems created in terms
of health, social and economic. In this study, we tried to study
the most important factors causing dust. In this way we have
used the satellite images and meteorological data. Finally,
strategies to deal with the dust will be mentioned.
Abstract: An Artificial Neural Network based modeling
technique has been used to study the influence of different
combinations of meteorological parameters on evaporation from a
reservoir. The data set used is taken from an earlier reported study.
Several input combination were tried so as to find out the importance
of different input parameters in predicting the evaporation. The
prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network has also been
compared with the accuracy of linear regression for predicting
evaporation. The comparison demonstrated superior performance of
Artificial Neural Network over linear regression approach. The
findings of the study also revealed the requirement of all input
parameters considered together, instead of individual parameters
taken one at a time as reported in earlier studies, in predicting the
evaporation. The highest correlation coefficient (0.960) along with
lowest root mean square error (0.865) was obtained with the input
combination of air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and
mean relative humidity. A graph between the actual and predicted
values of evaporation suggests that most of the values lie within a
scatter of ±15% with all input parameters. The findings of this study
suggest the usefulness of ANN technique in predicting the
evaporation losses from reservoirs.
Abstract: Climate change is a cumulative change in weather
patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric
Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and
magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data.
Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the
magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS
named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing
the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of
meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly
meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over
different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and
minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant
increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant
decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found.
However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.
Abstract: Based on a long-term vegetation index dataset of NDVI and meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and their relations with major climate factors were analyzed. The results show the following: 1) The linear trends of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau indicate that the temperature in the plateau generally increased, but it rose faster in the last 20 years. 2) The most significant NDVI increase occurred in the eastern and southern plateau. However, the western and northern plateau demonstrate a decreasing trend. 3) There is a significant positive linear correlation between NDVI and temperature and a negative correlation between NDVI and mean wind speed. However, no significant statistical relationship was found between NDVI and relative humidity, precipitation or sunshine duration.4) The changes in NDVI for the plateau are driven by temperature-precipitation, but for the desert and forest areas, the relation changes to precipitation-temperature-wind velocity and wind velocity-temperature-precipitation.
Abstract: Weather systems use enormously complex
combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting.
Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such
as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become
insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore,
the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic
approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms.
Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm
Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of
new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with
more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO
approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides
experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld
meteorological time series.
Abstract: In recent years, many researches to mine the exploding Web world, especially User Generated Content (UGC) such as
weblogs, for knowledge about various phenomena and events in the physical world have been done actively, and also Web services
with the Web-mined knowledge have begun to be developed for
the public. However, there are few detailed investigations on how accurately Web-mined data reflect physical-world data. It must be
problematic to idolatrously utilize the Web-mined data in public Web services without ensuring their accuracy sufficiently. Therefore,
this paper introduces the simplest Web Sensor and spatiotemporallynormalized
Web Sensor to extract spatiotemporal data about a target
phenomenon from weblogs searched by keyword(s) representing the
target phenomenon, and tries to validate the potential and reliability of the Web-sensed spatiotemporal data by four kinds of granularity
analyses of coefficient correlation with temperature, rainfall, snowfall,
and earthquake statistics per day by region of Japan Meteorological
Agency as physical-world data: spatial granularity (region-s population
density), temporal granularity (time period, e.g., per day vs. per week), representation granularity (e.g., “rain" vs. “heavy rain"), and
media granularity (weblogs vs. microblogs such as Tweets).
Abstract: Air pollution is a major environmental health
problem, affecting developed and developing countries around the
world. Increasing amounts of potentially harmful gases and
particulate matter are being emitted into the atmosphere on a global
scale, resulting in damage to human health and the environment.
Petroleum-related air pollutants can have a wide variety of adverse
environmental impacts. In the crude oil production sectors, there is a
strong need for a thorough knowledge of gaseous emissions resulting
from the flaring of associated gas of known composition on daily
basis through combustion activities under several operating
conditions. This can help in the control of gaseous emission from
flares and thus in the protection of their immediate and distant
surrounding against environmental degradation.
The impacts of methane and non-methane hydrocarbons emissions
from flaring activities at oil production facilities at Kuwait Oilfields
have been assessed through a screening study using records of flaring
operations taken at the gas and oil production sites, and by analyzing
available meteorological and air quality data measured at stations
located near anthropogenic sources. In the present study the
Industrial Source Complex (ISCST3) Dispersion Model is used to
calculate the ground level concentrations of methane and nonmethane
hydrocarbons emitted due to flaring in all over Kuwait
Oilfields.
The simulation of real hourly air quality in and around oil
production facilities in the State of Kuwait for the year 2006,
inserting the respective source emission data into the ISCST3
software indicates that the levels of non-methane hydrocarbons from
the flaring activities exceed the allowable ambient air standard set by
Kuwait EPA. So, there is a strong need to address this acute problem
to minimize the impact of methane and non-methane hydrocarbons
released from flaring activities over the urban area of Kuwait.
Abstract: Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order
to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also
helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly
for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has
applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control,
rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future
depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as
atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The
values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather
station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The
trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of
data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the
same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial
Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which
uses back propagation algorithm.
Abstract: Contour filter strips planted with perennial vegetation
can be used to improve surface and ground water quality by reducing
pollutant, such as NO3-N, and sediment outflow from cropland to a
river or lake. Meanwhile, the filter strips of perennial grass with biofuel
potentials also have economic benefits of producing ethanol. In
this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was
applied to the Walnut Creek Watershed to examine the effectiveness
of contour strips in reducing NO3-N outflows from crop fields to the
river or lake. Required input data include watershed topography,
slope, soil type, land-use, management practices in the watershed and
climate parameters (precipitation, maximum/minimum air
temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity).
Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential
subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and
to examine the effects of strip size and location on NO3-N reduction
in the subbasins under various meteorological conditions (dry,
average and wet). Variable sizes of contour strips (10%, 20%, 30%
and 50%, respectively, of a subbasin area) planted with perennial
switchgrass were selected for simulating the effects of strip size and
location on stream water quality. Simulation results showed that a
filter strip having 10%-50% of the subbasin area could lead to 55%-
90% NO3-N reduction in the subbasin during an average rainfall
year. Strips occupying 10-20% of the subbasin area were found to be
more efficient in reducing NO3-N when placed along the contour
than that when placed along the river. The results of this study can
assist in cost-benefit analysis and decision-making in best water
resources management practices for environmental protection.
Abstract: Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a
varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range
of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages
of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts,
such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical
are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by
the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges
measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency
analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of
drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including
physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied
as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results
of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area,
rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)