Abstract: Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.
Abstract: The aim of the paper is to analyze the characteristics of winter fog in terms of its trend and spatial-temporal variability over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study reveals that during last four and half decades (1971-2015), an alarming increasing trend in fog frequency has been observed during the winter months of December and January over the study area. The frequency of fog has increased by 118.4% during the peak winter months of December and January. It has also been observed that on an average central part of IGP has 66.29% fog days followed by west IGP with 41.94% fog days. Further, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition and Mann-Kendall variation analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of winter fog. The findings have significant implications for the further research of fog over IGP and formulate robust strategies to adapt the fog variability and mitigate its effects. The decision by Delhi Government to implement odd-even scheme to restrict the use of private vehicles in order to reduce pollution and improve quality of air may result in increasing the alarming increasing trend of fog over Delhi and its surrounding areas regions of IGP.
Abstract: Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.
Abstract: The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km2 and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km2 and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.
Abstract: Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in
many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls.
There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the
nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of
the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum
rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using
two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho
(SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations
ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly
durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically
significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily
and daily) events generally show a statistically significant
negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR
test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations
considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall
events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data
based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be
adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter
durations are more relevant to many urban development projects
based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.
Abstract: Climate change will affect various aspects of
hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect
flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design
and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly,
sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall
stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric
tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to
detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6,
12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been
found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10%
level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12
hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer
duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations
(e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward
trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours
durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding
has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban
infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant
for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments
and smaller sub-divisions.
Abstract: Temperature, humidity and precipitation in an area,
are parameters proved influential in the climate of that area, and one
should recognize them so that he can determine the climate of that
area. Climate changes are of primary importance in climatology, and
in recent years, have been of great concern to researchers and even
politicians and organizations, for they can play an important role in
social, political and economic activities. Even though the real cause
of climate changes or their stability is not yet fully recognized, they
are a matter of concern to researchers and their importance for
countries has prompted them to investigate climate changes in
different levels, especially in regional, national and continental level.
This issue has less been investigated in our country. However, in
recent years, there have been some researches and conferences on
climate changes. This study is also in line with such researches and
tries to investigate and analyze the trends of climate changes
(temperature and precipitation) in Sefid-roud (the name of a river)
basin. Three parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature,
and maximum and minimum temperatures in 36 synoptic and
climatology stations in a statistical period of 49 years (1956-2005) in
the stations of Sefid-roud basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test.
The results obtained by data analysis show that climate changes are
short term and have a trend. The analysis of mean temperature
revealed that changes have a significantly rising trend, besides the
precipitation has a significantly falling trend.
Abstract: Climate change is a cumulative change in weather
patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric
Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and
magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data.
Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the
magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS
named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing
the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of
meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly
meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over
different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and
minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant
increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant
decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found.
However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.