Trend Analysis for Extreme Rainfall Events in New South Wales, Australia
Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in
many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls.
There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the
nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of
the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum
rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using
two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho
(SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations
ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly
durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically
significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily
and daily) events generally show a statistically significant
negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR
test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations
considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall
events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data
based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be
adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter
durations are more relevant to many urban development projects
based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.
[1] D. Karpouzos, S. Kavalieratou and C. Babajimopoulos, “Trend analysis
of precipitation data in Pieria Region (Greece),” European Water, 2010,
vol. 30, pp. 31-40.
[2] W. S. Ashley, T. L. Mote, P. G. Dixon, S. L. Trotier, E. J. Powell, J. D.
Durkee and A. J. Grundstein, “Distribution of mesoscale convective
complex rainfall in the United States,” Monthly Weather Review, 2003,
vol. 131, pp. 3003-3017.
[3] M. R. Haylock, T. C. Peterson, L. M. Alves, T. Ambrizzi, Y. M. T.
Anuncia¸ J. Baez, V. R. Barros, M. A. Berlato, M. Bidegain, G. Coronel,
V. Corradi, V. J. Garcia, A. M. Grimm, D. Karoly, J. A. Marengo, M. B.
Marino, D. Moncunill, D. Nechet, J. Quintana, E. Rebello, M.
Rusticucci, J. L. Santos, I. Trebejo and L. A. Vincent, “Trends in total
and extreme south American rainfall in 1960–2000 and links with sea
surface temperature,” Journal of Climate, 2006, vol. 19, pp. 1490-1512.
[4] A. Burgueno, C. Serra and X. Lana, “ Monthly and annual statistical
distributions of daily rainfall at the Fabra observatory (Barcelona,NE
Spain) for the years 1917–1999,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology,
2004, vol. 77, pp. 57-75, doi: 10.1007/s00704-003-0020-9.
[5] T. O. Odekunle, E. E. Balogun and O. O. Ogunkoya, “On the prediction
of rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria,” Theoretical and applied
Climatology, 2005, vol. 81, pp. 101-112, doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-
0108-x.
[6] P. Zhai, X. Zhang, H. Wan, and X. Pan, “Trends in Total Precipitation
and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China,” Journal of
Climate, 2005, vol. 18, pp. 1096-1108.
[7] F. Fujibe, “Long-Term Changes in Precipitation in Japan,” Journal of
Disaster Research, 2008, vol. 3, pp. 51-52.
[8] J. Hannaford and G. Buys, “Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the
UK,” Journal of Hydrology, 2012, vol. 475, pp. 158-174.
[9] P. P. Nikhil Raj and P. A. Azeez, “Trend analysis of rainfall in
Bharathapuzha River basin, Kerala, India,” International Journal of
Climatology, 2012, vol. 32, pp. 533-539, doi: 10.1002/joc.2283.
[10] M. Hanif, A. Khan and S. Adnan, “Latitudinal precipitation
characteristics and trends in Pakistan,” Journal of Hydrology, 2013, vol.
492, pp. 266-272.
[11] D. H. Burn and A.Taleghani, “Estimates of changes in design rainfall
values for Canada,” Hydrological Processes, 2013, vol. 27, pp. 1590-
1599, doi: 10.1002/hyp.9238.
[12] M. R. Hamdi, M. Abu-Allaban, A. Al Shayeb, M. Jaber and N. M.
Momani, “Climate change in Jordan: A comprehensive examination
approach,” American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2009, vol. 5,
pp. 58-68.
[13] C. Clarke, M. Hulley, J. Marsalek and E. Watt, “Stationarity of A max
series of short-duration rainfall for long-term Canadian stations:
detection of jumps and trends,” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,
2011, vol. 38, pp. 1175–1184.
[14] A. Rana, C. B. Uvo, L. Bengtsson and P. P. Sarthi, “Trend analysis for
rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India,” Climate Dynamics, 2012, vol. 38,
pp. 45-56, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1083-4.
[15] A. Mondal, S. Kundu and A. Mukhopadhyay, “Rainfall trend analysis by
Mann-Kendall test: a case study of north-eastern part of Cuttack District,
Orissa,” International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental,
2012, vol. 2, pp. 70-78.
[16] S. Yue, P. Pilon and G. Cavadias, “Power of the Mann-Kendall and
Spearman’S rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological
series,” Journal of Hydrology, 2002., vol. 259, pp. 254–271.
[17] N. Plummer, M. J. Salinger, N. Nicholls, R. Suppiah, K. J. Hennessy, R.
M. Leighton, B. Trewin, C. M. Page and J. M. Lough, “Changes in
climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the
twentieth century,” Climatic Change, 1999, vol. 42, pp. 183-202.
[18] M. Haylock and N. Nicholls, “Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an
updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998”, International
Journal of Climatology, 2000., vol. 20, pp. 1533-1541.
[19] P. Y. Groisman, R. W. Knight, D. R Easterling, T. R Karl, G. C. Hegerl,
and V. N. Razuvaev, ”Trends in intense precipitation in the climate
record,” Journal of Climate, 2005, vol. 615, pp. 1326-1350.
[20] A. J. E Gallant, K.J Hennessy and J. Risbey, “Trends in rainfall indices
for six Australian regions: 1910-2005,” Australian Meteorological
Magazine, 2007, vol. 56, pp. 223-239.
[21] L.V. Alexander, X. Zhang, T. C. Peterson, J. Caesar, B. Gleason and A.
M. G. Klein Tank, “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes
of temperature and precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical Research-
Atmospheres, 2006, vol. 111, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
[22] R. Hardwick Jones, S. Westra and A. Sharma, “Observed relationships
between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature and
relative humidity,” Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, vol. 37, pp. 1-5.
[23] J. Li, J. Feng and Y. Li, “A possible cause of decreasing summer rainfall
in northeast Australia,” International Journal of Climatology, 2012, vol.
32, pp. 995-1005.
[24] Y. R Chen, B., Yu and G. Jenkins, “Secular variation in rainfall intensity
and temperature in eastern Australia,” Journal of Hydrometeorology,
2013, vol.14, pp.1356-1363. doi: http://dx.doi.org /10.1175/JHM-D-12-
0110.1.
[25] R. K. Chowdhury and S. Beecham, “Australian rainfall trends and their
relation to the southern oscillation index,” Hydrological Processes,
2010, vol. 24, pp. 504-514.
[26] D. Jakob, D. J. Karoly and A. Seed, “Non-stationarity in daily and subdaily
intense rainfall–Part 1: Sydney, Australia,” Natural Hazards and
Earth System Science, 2011, vol. 11, pp. 2263-2271.
[27] M. Loveridge and A. Rahman, “Trend analysis of rainfall losses using
an event-based hydrological model in eastern NSW,” in Proc. 20th
International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Adelaide,
Australia, 1–6 December 2013, pp. 2569-2575.
[28] A. G. Yilmaz and B. J. C Perera, “Changes in intensity-frequencyduration
relationship of heavy rainfalls at a station in Melbourne,” in
Proc. 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation,
Adelaide, Australia, 2013, pp. 2834-2840.
[29] H. B. Mann, “Non-parametric tests against trend,” Econometrica, 1945,
vol. 13, pp. 245-259.
[30] M. G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods, 1975, Griffin, London.
[1] D. Karpouzos, S. Kavalieratou and C. Babajimopoulos, “Trend analysis
of precipitation data in Pieria Region (Greece),” European Water, 2010,
vol. 30, pp. 31-40.
[2] W. S. Ashley, T. L. Mote, P. G. Dixon, S. L. Trotier, E. J. Powell, J. D.
Durkee and A. J. Grundstein, “Distribution of mesoscale convective
complex rainfall in the United States,” Monthly Weather Review, 2003,
vol. 131, pp. 3003-3017.
[3] M. R. Haylock, T. C. Peterson, L. M. Alves, T. Ambrizzi, Y. M. T.
Anuncia¸ J. Baez, V. R. Barros, M. A. Berlato, M. Bidegain, G. Coronel,
V. Corradi, V. J. Garcia, A. M. Grimm, D. Karoly, J. A. Marengo, M. B.
Marino, D. Moncunill, D. Nechet, J. Quintana, E. Rebello, M.
Rusticucci, J. L. Santos, I. Trebejo and L. A. Vincent, “Trends in total
and extreme south American rainfall in 1960–2000 and links with sea
surface temperature,” Journal of Climate, 2006, vol. 19, pp. 1490-1512.
[4] A. Burgueno, C. Serra and X. Lana, “ Monthly and annual statistical
distributions of daily rainfall at the Fabra observatory (Barcelona,NE
Spain) for the years 1917–1999,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology,
2004, vol. 77, pp. 57-75, doi: 10.1007/s00704-003-0020-9.
[5] T. O. Odekunle, E. E. Balogun and O. O. Ogunkoya, “On the prediction
of rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria,” Theoretical and applied
Climatology, 2005, vol. 81, pp. 101-112, doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-
0108-x.
[6] P. Zhai, X. Zhang, H. Wan, and X. Pan, “Trends in Total Precipitation
and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China,” Journal of
Climate, 2005, vol. 18, pp. 1096-1108.
[7] F. Fujibe, “Long-Term Changes in Precipitation in Japan,” Journal of
Disaster Research, 2008, vol. 3, pp. 51-52.
[8] J. Hannaford and G. Buys, “Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the
UK,” Journal of Hydrology, 2012, vol. 475, pp. 158-174.
[9] P. P. Nikhil Raj and P. A. Azeez, “Trend analysis of rainfall in
Bharathapuzha River basin, Kerala, India,” International Journal of
Climatology, 2012, vol. 32, pp. 533-539, doi: 10.1002/joc.2283.
[10] M. Hanif, A. Khan and S. Adnan, “Latitudinal precipitation
characteristics and trends in Pakistan,” Journal of Hydrology, 2013, vol.
492, pp. 266-272.
[11] D. H. Burn and A.Taleghani, “Estimates of changes in design rainfall
values for Canada,” Hydrological Processes, 2013, vol. 27, pp. 1590-
1599, doi: 10.1002/hyp.9238.
[12] M. R. Hamdi, M. Abu-Allaban, A. Al Shayeb, M. Jaber and N. M.
Momani, “Climate change in Jordan: A comprehensive examination
approach,” American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2009, vol. 5,
pp. 58-68.
[13] C. Clarke, M. Hulley, J. Marsalek and E. Watt, “Stationarity of A max
series of short-duration rainfall for long-term Canadian stations:
detection of jumps and trends,” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,
2011, vol. 38, pp. 1175–1184.
[14] A. Rana, C. B. Uvo, L. Bengtsson and P. P. Sarthi, “Trend analysis for
rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India,” Climate Dynamics, 2012, vol. 38,
pp. 45-56, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1083-4.
[15] A. Mondal, S. Kundu and A. Mukhopadhyay, “Rainfall trend analysis by
Mann-Kendall test: a case study of north-eastern part of Cuttack District,
Orissa,” International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental,
2012, vol. 2, pp. 70-78.
[16] S. Yue, P. Pilon and G. Cavadias, “Power of the Mann-Kendall and
Spearman’S rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological
series,” Journal of Hydrology, 2002., vol. 259, pp. 254–271.
[17] N. Plummer, M. J. Salinger, N. Nicholls, R. Suppiah, K. J. Hennessy, R.
M. Leighton, B. Trewin, C. M. Page and J. M. Lough, “Changes in
climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the
twentieth century,” Climatic Change, 1999, vol. 42, pp. 183-202.
[18] M. Haylock and N. Nicholls, “Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an
updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998”, International
Journal of Climatology, 2000., vol. 20, pp. 1533-1541.
[19] P. Y. Groisman, R. W. Knight, D. R Easterling, T. R Karl, G. C. Hegerl,
and V. N. Razuvaev, ”Trends in intense precipitation in the climate
record,” Journal of Climate, 2005, vol. 615, pp. 1326-1350.
[20] A. J. E Gallant, K.J Hennessy and J. Risbey, “Trends in rainfall indices
for six Australian regions: 1910-2005,” Australian Meteorological
Magazine, 2007, vol. 56, pp. 223-239.
[21] L.V. Alexander, X. Zhang, T. C. Peterson, J. Caesar, B. Gleason and A.
M. G. Klein Tank, “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes
of temperature and precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical Research-
Atmospheres, 2006, vol. 111, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
[22] R. Hardwick Jones, S. Westra and A. Sharma, “Observed relationships
between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature and
relative humidity,” Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, vol. 37, pp. 1-5.
[23] J. Li, J. Feng and Y. Li, “A possible cause of decreasing summer rainfall
in northeast Australia,” International Journal of Climatology, 2012, vol.
32, pp. 995-1005.
[24] Y. R Chen, B., Yu and G. Jenkins, “Secular variation in rainfall intensity
and temperature in eastern Australia,” Journal of Hydrometeorology,
2013, vol.14, pp.1356-1363. doi: http://dx.doi.org /10.1175/JHM-D-12-
0110.1.
[25] R. K. Chowdhury and S. Beecham, “Australian rainfall trends and their
relation to the southern oscillation index,” Hydrological Processes,
2010, vol. 24, pp. 504-514.
[26] D. Jakob, D. J. Karoly and A. Seed, “Non-stationarity in daily and subdaily
intense rainfall–Part 1: Sydney, Australia,” Natural Hazards and
Earth System Science, 2011, vol. 11, pp. 2263-2271.
[27] M. Loveridge and A. Rahman, “Trend analysis of rainfall losses using
an event-based hydrological model in eastern NSW,” in Proc. 20th
International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Adelaide,
Australia, 1–6 December 2013, pp. 2569-2575.
[28] A. G. Yilmaz and B. J. C Perera, “Changes in intensity-frequencyduration
relationship of heavy rainfalls at a station in Melbourne,” in
Proc. 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation,
Adelaide, Australia, 2013, pp. 2834-2840.
[29] H. B. Mann, “Non-parametric tests against trend,” Econometrica, 1945,
vol. 13, pp. 245-259.
[30] M. G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods, 1975, Griffin, London.
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:68435", author = "Evan Hajani and Ataur Rahman and Khaled Haddad", title = "Trend Analysis for Extreme Rainfall Events in New South Wales, Australia", abstract = "Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in
many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls.
There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the
nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of
the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum
rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using
two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho
(SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations
ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly
durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically
significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily
and daily) events generally show a statistically significant
negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR
test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations
considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall
events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data
based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be
adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter
durations are more relevant to many urban development projects
based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.
", keywords = "Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s
Rho test, trends, design rainfall.", volume = "8", number = "12", pages = "834-6", }
