Predictive Modelling Techniques in Sediment Yield and Hydrological Modelling

This paper presents an extensive review of literature relevant to the modelling techniques adopted in sediment yield and hydrological modelling. Several studies relating to sediment yield are discussed. Many research areas of sedimentation in rivers, runoff and reservoirs are presented. Different types of hydrological models, different methods employed in selecting appropriate models for different case studies are analysed. Applications of evolutionary algorithms and artificial intelligence techniques are discussed and compared especially in water resources management and modelling. This review concentrates on Genetic Programming (GP) and fully discusses its theories and applications. The successful applications of GP as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment modelling. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark, generalization ability, bloat, over-fitting and other open issues relating to the working principles of GP are highlighted. This paper concludes with the identification of some research gaps in hydrological modelling and sediment yield.

Genetic Programming: Principles, Applications and Opportunities for Hydrological Modelling

Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Predicting Dispersion Coefficient in Free-Flowing Zones of Rivers by Genetic Programming

Transient storage zones along the flow paths of rivers have great influence on the dispersion of pollutants that are either accidentally or otherwise led into them. The speed with which these pollution clouds get transported and dispersed downstream is, to a large extent, explained by the longitudinal dispersion coefficients in the free-flowing zones of rivers (Kf). In the present work, a new empirical expression for Kf has been derived employing genetic programming (GP) on published dispersion data. The proposed expression uses few hydraulic and geometric characteristics of a river that are readily available to field engineers. Based on various performance indices, the proposed expression is found superior to other existing expression for Kf.

Exploiting Two Intelligent Models to Predict Water Level: A Field Study of Urmia Lake, Iran

Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.

Evolutionary Approach for Automated Discovery of Censored Production Rules

In the recent past, there has been an increasing interest in applying evolutionary methods to Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) and a number of successful applications of Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Genetic Programming (GP) to KDD have been demonstrated. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the form If P Then D. The PRs, however, are unable to handle exceptions and do not exhibit variable precision. The Censored Production Rules (CPRs), an extension of PRs, were proposed by Michalski & Winston that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations, in which the conditional statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus, the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses important information, while the Unless C part acts only as a switch and changes the polarity of D to ~D. This paper presents a classification algorithm based on evolutionary approach that discovers comprehensible rules with exceptions in the form of CPRs. The proposed approach has flexible chromosome encoding, where each chromosome corresponds to a CPR. Appropriate genetic operators are suggested and a fitness function is proposed that incorporates the basic constraints on CPRs. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Artificial Neural Network Development by means of Genetic Programming with Graph Codification

The development of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is usually a slow process in which the human expert has to test several architectures until he finds the one that achieves best results to solve a certain problem. This work presents a new technique that uses Genetic Programming (GP) for automatically generating ANNs. To do this, the GP algorithm had to be changed in order to work with graph structures, so ANNs can be developed. This technique also allows the obtaining of simplified networks that solve the problem with a small group of neurons. In order to measure the performance of the system and to compare the results with other ANN development methods by means of Evolutionary Computation (EC) techniques, several tests were performed with problems based on some of the most used test databases. The results of those comparisons show that the system achieves good results comparable with the already existing techniques and, in most of the cases, they worked better than those techniques.

Discovery of Quantified Hierarchical Production Rules from Large Set of Discovered Rules

Automated discovery of Rule is, due to its applicability, one of the most fundamental and important method in KDD. It has been an active research area in the recent past. Hierarchical representation allows us to easily manage the complexity of knowledge, to view the knowledge at different levels of details, and to focus our attention on the interesting aspects only. One of such efficient and easy to understand systems is Hierarchical Production rule (HPRs) system. A HPR, a standard production rule augmented with generality and specificity information, is of the following form: Decision If < condition> Generality Specificity . HPRs systems are capable of handling taxonomical structures inherent in the knowledge about the real world. This paper focuses on the issue of mining Quantified rules with crisp hierarchical structure using Genetic Programming (GP) approach to knowledge discovery. The post-processing scheme presented in this work uses Quantified production rules as initial individuals of GP and discovers hierarchical structure. In proposed approach rules are quantified by using Dempster Shafer theory. Suitable genetic operators are proposed for the suggested encoding. Based on the Subsumption Matrix(SM), an appropriate fitness function is suggested. Finally, Quantified Hierarchical Production Rules (HPRs) are generated from the discovered hierarchy, using Dempster Shafer theory. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Genetic Programming Approach to Hierarchical Production Rule Discovery

Automated discovery of hierarchical structures in large data sets has been an active research area in the recent past. This paper focuses on the issue of mining generalized rules with crisp hierarchical structure using Genetic Programming (GP) approach to knowledge discovery. The post-processing scheme presented in this work uses flat rules as initial individuals of GP and discovers hierarchical structure. Suitable genetic operators are proposed for the suggested encoding. Based on the Subsumption Matrix(SM), an appropriate fitness function is suggested. Finally, Hierarchical Production Rules (HPRs) are generated from the discovered hierarchy. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Using Genetic Programming to Evolve a Team of Data Classifiers

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the ability of a genetic programming (GP) algorithm to evolve a team of data classification models. The GP algorithm used in this work is “multigene" in nature, i.e. there are multiple tree structures (genes) that are used to represent team members. Each team member assigns a data sample to one of a fixed set of output classes. A majority vote, determined using the mode (highest occurrence) of classes predicted by the individual genes, is used to determine the final class prediction. The algorithm is tested on a binary classification problem. For the case study investigated, compact classification models are obtained with comparable accuracy to alternative approaches.

Distortion Estimation in Digital Image Watermarking using Genetic Programming

This paper introduces a technique of distortion estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP). The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as a function regression problem. This function regression problem is solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust against attacks.