Abstract: Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics
in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake
occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main
subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is
estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the
Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research,
we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single
decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method
in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an
earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The
information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used
to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard
rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between
HRLPP and HRSD method.
Abstract: recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for
modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In
this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were
employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the
model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process
control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of
Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of
models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response
time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error
between actual and predicted response time as output and also the
same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to
predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values
in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is
acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of
experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.
Abstract: This paper describes interconnection between
technical and economical making decision. The reason of this dealing
could be different: poor technical condition, change of substation
(electrical network) regime, power transformer owner budget deficit
and increasing of tariff on electricity. Establishing of recommended
practice as well as to give general advice and guidance in economical
sector, testing, diagnostic power transformers to establish its
conditions, identify problems and provide potential remedies.
Abstract: The river flow forecasting represents a crucial point to employ for improving a management policy addressed to the right use of water resources as well as for conjugating prevention and defense actions against environmental degradation. The difficulties occurring during the field activities encourage the development and implementation of operative computation and measuring methods addressed to time reduction for data acquisition and processing maintaining a good level of accuracy. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to test a new entropy based expeditive methodology for the evaluation of the rating curves on three gauged sections with different geometric and morphological characteristics. The methodology requires the choice of only three verticals along the measure section and the sampling of only the maximum velocity. The results underline how in most conditions the rating curves drawn can replace those built with classic methodologies, simplifying thus the procedures of data monitoring and calculation.
Abstract: Human Resource (HR) applications can be used to
provide fair and consistent decisions, and to improve the
effectiveness of decision making processes. Besides that, among
the challenge for HR professionals is to manage organization
talents, especially to ensure the right person for the right job at the
right time. For that reason, in this article, we attempt to describe
the potential to implement one of the talent management tasks i.e.
identifying existing talent by predicting their performance as one of
HR application for talent management. This study suggests the
potential HR system architecture for talent forecasting by using
past experience knowledge known as Knowledge Discovery in
Database (KDD) or Data Mining. This article consists of three
main parts; the first part deals with the overview of HR
applications, the prediction techniques and application, the general
view of Data mining and the basic concept of talent management
in HRM. The second part is to understand the use of Data Mining
technique in order to solve one of the talent management tasks, and
the third part is to propose the potential HR system architecture for
talent forecasting.
Abstract: This paper mainly investigates the environmental and
economic impacts of worldwide use of electric vehicles. It can be
concluded that governments have good reason to promote the use of
electric vehicles. First, the global vehicles population is evaluated with
the help of grey forecasting model and the amount of oil saving is
estimated through approximate calculation. After that, based on the
game theory, the amount and types of electricity generation needed by
electronic vehicles are established. Finally, some conclusions on the
government-s attitudes are drawn.
Abstract: In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.
Abstract: Many studies have shown that Artificial Neural
Networks (ANN) have been widely used for forecasting financial
markets, because of many financial and economic variables are nonlinear,
and an ANN can model flexible linear or non-linear
relationship among variables.
The purpose of the study was to employ an ANN models to
predict the direction of the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100
Indices (ISE National-100).
As a result of this study, the model forecast the direction of the
ISE National-100 to an accuracy of 74, 51%.
Abstract: This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.
Abstract: Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key
issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of
modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy
patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no
demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large
variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting
methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy.
In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns
of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed,
which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a
traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the
described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to
forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional
recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero
demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed
approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using
Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered
perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network
and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were
applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak
Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The
results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed
mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.
Abstract: Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.
Abstract: The paper presents a method for multivariate time
series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series
space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different
method for each component, depending on its time structure. The
paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series
with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.
Abstract: The prospective analysis is presented as an important tool to identify the most relevant opportunities and needs in research and development from planned interventions in innovation systems. This study chose Phyllanthus niruri, known as "stone break" to describe the knowledge about the specie, by using biotechnological forecasting through the software Vantage Point. It can be seen a considerable increase in studies on Phyllanthus niruri in recent years and that there are patents about this plant since twenty-five years ago. India was the country that most carried out research on the specie, showing interest, mainly in studies of hepatoprotection, antioxidant and anti-cancer activities. Brazil is in the second place, with special interest for anti-tumor studies. Given the identification of the Brazilian groups that exploit the species it is possible to mediate partnerships and cooperation aiming to help on the implementing of the Program of Herbal medicines (phytotherapics) in Brazil.
Abstract: By the application of an improved back-propagation
neural network (BPNN), a model of current densities for a solid oxide
fuel cell (SOFC) with 10 layers is established in this study. To build
the learning data of BPNN, Taguchi orthogonal array is applied to
arrange the conditions of operating parameters, which totally 7 factors
act as the inputs of BPNN. Also, the average current densities
achieved by numerical method acts as the outputs of BPNN.
Comparing with the direct solution, the learning errors for all learning
data are smaller than 0.117%, and the predicting errors for 27
forecasting cases are less than 0.231%. The results show that the
presented model effectively builds a mathematical algorithm to predict
performance of a SOFC stack immediately in real time.
Also, the calculating algorithms are applied to proceed with the
optimization of the average current density for a SOFC stack. The
operating performance window of a SOFC stack is found to be
between 41137.11 and 53907.89. Furthermore, an inverse predicting
model of operating parameters of a SOFC stack is developed here by
the calculating algorithms of the improved BPNN, which is proved to
effectively predict operating parameters to achieve a desired
performance output of a SOFC stack.
Abstract: Minimization methods for training feed-forward networks with Backpropagation are compared. Feedforward network training is a special case of functional minimization, where no explicit model of the data is assumed. Therefore due to the high dimensionality of the data, linearization of the training problem through use of orthogonal basis functions is not desirable. The focus is functional minimization on any basis. A number of methods based on local gradient and Hessian matrices are discussed. Modifications of many methods of first and second order training methods are considered. Using share rates data, experimentally it is proved that Conjugate gradient and Quasi Newton?s methods outperformed the Gradient Descent methods. In case of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is of special interest in financial forecasting.
Abstract: In this research, the researchers have managed to
design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the
"IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by
utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm
Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership
functions and four independent Variables including trade volume,
Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also
closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are
selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo –
fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first
quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the
Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership
functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal
membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected
as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three
independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio,
closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price
fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the
research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted
with the lower level of error.
Abstract: ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.
Abstract: The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are
apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs
missions is often non-adequate or partly missing.
In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support
system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision
makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with
different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical
ones.
The statistical prediction approach is based on a large
climatological data base and the special analog method which is able
to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to
apply them during the forecasting procedure.
The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs
twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast
for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based
system can give important weather information over the Carpathian
basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via
internet connection.
Abstract: The paper presents a modelling methodology for
small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical
site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and
energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic
arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency
of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique
solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the
capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical
demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.
Abstract: Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).