Abstract: In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.
Abstract: In the present study, an attempt was made to state the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transformation over three decades around the urban regions of Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale provincial centers (PCs) in Turkey. Landsat imageries acquired in 1984, 1999 and 2014 were used to determine the LULC change. Images were classified using the supervised classification technique and five main LULC classes were considered including forest (F), agricultural land (A), residential area (urban) - bare soil (R-B), water surface (W), and other (O). Change detection analyses were conducted for 1984-1999 and 1999-2014, and the results were evaluated. Conversions of LULC types to R-B class were investigated. In addition, population changes (1985-2014) were assessed depending on census data, the relations between population and the urban areas were stated, and future populations and urban area needs were forecasted for 2030. The results of LULC analysis indicated that urban areas, which are covered under R-B class, were expanded in all PCs. During 1984-1999 R-B class within Balıkesir, Bursa and Çanakkale PCs were found to have increased by 7.1%, 8.4%, and 2.9%, respectively. The trend continued in the 1999-2014 term and the increment percentages reached to 15.7%, 15.5%, and 10.2% at the end of 30-year period (1984-2014). Furthermore, since A class in all provinces was found to be the principal contributor for the R-B class, urban sprawl lead to the loss of agricultural lands. Moreover, the areas of R-B classes were highly correlated with population within all PCs (R2>0.992). Depending on this situation, both future populations and R-B class areas were forecasted. The estimated values of increase in the R-B class areas for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale PCs were 1,586 ha, 7,999 ha and 854 ha, respectively. Due to this fact, the forecasted values for 2,030 are 7,838 ha, 27,866, and 2,486 ha for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale, and thus, 7.7%, 8.2%, and 9.7% more R-B class areas are expected to locate in PCs in respect to the same order.
Abstract: In this day and age, extremism in various forms of its manifestation is a real threat to the world community, the national security of a state and its territorial integrity, as well as to the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens. Extremism, as it is known, in general terms described as a commitment to extreme views and actions, radically denying the existing social norms and rules. Supporters of extremism in the ideological and political struggles often adopt methods and means of psychological warfare, appeal not to reason and logical arguments, but to emotions and instincts of the people, to prejudices, biases, and a variety of mythological designs. They are dissatisfied with the established order and aim at increasing this dissatisfaction among the masses. Youth extremism holds a specific place among the existing forms and types of extremism. In this context in 2015, we conducted a survey among Moscow college and high school students. The aim of this study was to determine how great or small is the difference in understanding and attitudes towards extremism manifestations, inclination and readiness to take part in extremist activities and what causes this predisposition, if it exists. We performed multivariate analysis and found the Russian college and high school students' opinion about the extremism and terrorism situation in our country and also their cognition on these topics. Among other things, we showed, that the level of aggressiveness of young people were not above the average for the whole population. The survey was conducted using the questionnaire method. The sample included college and high school students in Moscow (642 and 382, respectively) by method of random selection. The questionnaire was developed by specialists of RUDN University Sociological Laboratory and included both original questions (projective questions, the technique of incomplete sentences), and the standard test Dayhoff S. to determine the level of internal aggressiveness. It is also used as an experiment, the technique of study option using of FACS and SPAFF to determine the psychotypes and determination of non-verbal manifestations of emotions. The study confirmed the hypothesis that in respondents’ opinion, the level of aggression is higher today than a few years ago. Differences were found in the understanding of and respect for such social phenomena as extremism, terrorism, and their danger and appeal for the two age groups of young people. Theory of psychotypes, SPAFF (specific affect cording system) and FACS (facial action cording system) are considered as additional techniques for the diagnosis of a tendency to extreme views. Thus, it is established that diagnostics of acceptance of extreme views among young people is possible thanks to simultaneous use of knowledge from the different fields of socio-humanistic sciences. The results of the research can be used in a comparative context with other countries and as a starting point for further research in the field, taking into account its extreme relevance.
Abstract: Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability
to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present.
Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the
probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict
what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations.
In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion
process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend
is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In
general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the
characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has
made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who
have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying
problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing,
and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start
by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the
explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by
transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in
the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of
this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we
analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated
with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to
real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall,
the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on
the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and
the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents
the best currently available description of the phenomenon under
consideration.
Abstract: Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.
Abstract: Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator
evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios;
therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability
to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class
of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many
authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate
the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has
multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle
Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize
by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon
curve and the NSS curve.
Abstract: In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to
quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and
forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then
predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts
contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models
at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those
obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally
weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting
methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in
point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric.
However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve
the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models.
We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever
possible.
Abstract: The tradition competitive newsvendor game assumes decision makers are rational. However, there are behavioral biases when people make decisions, such as loss aversion, mental accounting and overconfidence. Overestimation of a subject’s own performance is one type of overconfidence. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the overestimated demand in the newsvendor competitive game with two players. This study builds a competitive newsvendor game model where newsvendors have private information of their demands, which is overestimated. At the same time, demands of each newsvendor forecasted by a third party institution are available. This research shows that the overestimation leads to demand steal effect, which reduces the competitor’s order quantity. However, the overall supply of the product increases due to overestimation. This study illustrates the boundary condition for the overestimated newsvendor to have the equilibrium order drop due to the demand steal effect from the other newsvendor. A newsvendor who has higher critical fractile will see its equilibrium order decrease with the drop of estimation level from the other newsvendor.
Abstract: At present, vibrations of rotors of gas transmittal unit evade sustainable forecasting. This paper describes elastic oscillation modes in resilient supports and rotor impellers modeled during computational experiments with regard to interference in the system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor. Verification of aeroelastic approach was done on model problem of interaction between supersonic jet in shock tube with deformed plate. ANSYS 15.0 engineering analysis system was used as a modeling tool of numerical simulation in this paper. Finite volume method for gas dynamics and finite elements method for assessment of the strain stress state (SSS) components were used as research methods. Rotation speed and material’s elasticity modulus varied during calculations, and SSS components and gas-dynamic parameters in the dynamic system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor were evaluated. The analysis of time dependence demonstrated that gas-dynamic parameters near the rotor blades oscillate at 200 Hz, and SSS parameters at the upper blade edge oscillate four times higher, i.e. with blade frequency. It has been detected that vibration amplitudes correction in the test points at magnetic bearings by aeroelasticity may correspond up to 50%, and about -π/4 for phases.
Abstract: Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating
the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy
environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and
increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean
integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine
representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model
is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI),
which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with
previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the
results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed
fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and
forecasting accuracy.
Abstract: Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards
decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in
the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power
industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a
very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load
highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter
season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize
the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is
usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity
load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may
depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial
production affects electricity load). All these features must be
captured by the model.
The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load
model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear
regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic
component through econometrical tools.
The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by
using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007-
2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to
compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample
and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be
deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the
simulated values.
Abstract: During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.
Abstract: Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.
Abstract: The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0) without constant and the forecasting equation is Yt = Yt-1 + 0.3691 (Yt-1 - Yt-2) When Yt is the time series data at time t, respectively.
Abstract: With 40% of total world energy consumption,
building systems are developing into technically complex large
energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power
management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency
and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized
control system of building heating and cooling managed by
economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising
results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research
is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study
performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding
sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and
central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled
with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models
are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in
different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental
conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort
demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate
control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine,
supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the
building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying
energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive
control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical
decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the
former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated
price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower
level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit
the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows
management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion
of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to
further increase the energy efficiency.
Abstract: The purposes of this research are to make comparisons in
respect of the behaviors on the use of the services of metered taxi
classified by the demographic factor and to study the influence of the
recognition on service quality having the effect on usage behaviors of
metered taxi services of consumers in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas. The
samples used in this research were 400 metered taxi service users in
Bangkok Metropolitan Areas and questionnaire was used as the tool for
collecting the data. Analysis statistics are mean and multiple regression
analysis. Results of the research revealed that the consumers recognize the
overall quality of services in each aspect include tangible aspects of the
service, responses to customers, assurance on the confidence,
understanding and knowing of customers which is rated at the moderate
level except the aspect of the assurance on the confidence and
trustworthiness which are rated at a high level. For the result of
hypothetical test, it is found that the quality in providing the services on
the aspect of the assurance given to the customers has the effect on the
usage behaviors of metered taxi services and the aspect of the frequency
on the use of the services per month which in this connection. Such
variable can forecast at one point nine percent (1.9%). In addition, quality
in providing the services and the aspect of the responses to customers
have the effect on the behaviors on the use of metered taxi services on the
aspect of the expenses on the use of services per month which in this
connection, such variable can forecast at two point one percent (2.1%).
Abstract: We regard forecasting of energy consumption by
private production areas of a large industrial facility as well as by the
facility itself. As for production areas, the forecast is made based on
empirical dependencies of the specific energy consumption and the
production output. As for the facility itself, implementation of the
task to minimize the energy consumption forecasting error is based
on adjustment of the facility’s actual energy consumption values
evaluated with the metering device and the total design energy
consumption of separate production areas of the facility. The
suggested procedure of optimal energy consumption was tested based
on the actual data of core product output and energy consumption by
a group of workshops and power plants of the large iron and steel
facility. Test results show that implementation of this procedure gives
the mean accuracy of energy consumption forecasting for winter
2014 of 0.11% for the group of workshops and 0.137% for the power
plants.
Abstract: Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary
source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an
accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a
1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos
Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the
annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User
Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a
GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to
use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing
with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic
Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.
Abstract: A method of effective planning and control of
industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows
optimally arranging the management and full control of complex
production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal
technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method
is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency
characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal
designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three
criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting
with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the
standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of
minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical
and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.
Abstract: Recent investigations have demonstrated the global
sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate
changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of
Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be
investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output
data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under
climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different
variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation
with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy
among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using
stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial
Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between
climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet
was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into
different components and then ANN was used to relate the
disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each
other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario
A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea
level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a
significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate
change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas
management.