Abstract: In the present study, an attempt was made to state the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transformation over three decades around the urban regions of Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale provincial centers (PCs) in Turkey. Landsat imageries acquired in 1984, 1999 and 2014 were used to determine the LULC change. Images were classified using the supervised classification technique and five main LULC classes were considered including forest (F), agricultural land (A), residential area (urban) - bare soil (R-B), water surface (W), and other (O). Change detection analyses were conducted for 1984-1999 and 1999-2014, and the results were evaluated. Conversions of LULC types to R-B class were investigated. In addition, population changes (1985-2014) were assessed depending on census data, the relations between population and the urban areas were stated, and future populations and urban area needs were forecasted for 2030. The results of LULC analysis indicated that urban areas, which are covered under R-B class, were expanded in all PCs. During 1984-1999 R-B class within Balıkesir, Bursa and Çanakkale PCs were found to have increased by 7.1%, 8.4%, and 2.9%, respectively. The trend continued in the 1999-2014 term and the increment percentages reached to 15.7%, 15.5%, and 10.2% at the end of 30-year period (1984-2014). Furthermore, since A class in all provinces was found to be the principal contributor for the R-B class, urban sprawl lead to the loss of agricultural lands. Moreover, the areas of R-B classes were highly correlated with population within all PCs (R2>0.992). Depending on this situation, both future populations and R-B class areas were forecasted. The estimated values of increase in the R-B class areas for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale PCs were 1,586 ha, 7,999 ha and 854 ha, respectively. Due to this fact, the forecasted values for 2,030 are 7,838 ha, 27,866, and 2,486 ha for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale, and thus, 7.7%, 8.2%, and 9.7% more R-B class areas are expected to locate in PCs in respect to the same order.
Abstract: Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes due to human
activities and natural causes have become a major environmental
concern. Assessment of temporal remote sensing data provides
information about LULC impacts on environment. Land Surface
Temperature (LST) is one of the important components for modeling
environmental changes in climatological, hydrological, and
agricultural studies. In this study, LULC changes (September 7, 1984
and July 8, 2014) especially in agricultural lands together with
population changes (1985-2014) and LST status were investigated
using remotely sensed and census data in South Marmara Watershed,
Turkey. LULC changes were determined using Landsat TM and
Landsat OLI data acquired in 1984 and 2014 summers. Six-band TM
and OLI images were classified using supervised classification
method to prepare LULC map including five classes including Forest
(F), Grazing Land (G), Agricultural Land (A), Water Surface (W),
Residential Area-Bare Soil (R-B) classes. The LST image was also
derived from thermal bands of the same dates.
LULC classification results showed that forest areas, agricultural
lands, water surfaces and residential area-bare soils were increased as
65751 ha, 20163 ha, 1924 ha and 20462 ha respectively. In
comparison, a dramatic decrement occurred in grazing land (107985
ha) within three decades. The population increased 29% between
years 1984-2014 in whole study area. Along with the natural causes,
migration also caused this increase since the study area has an
important employment potential. LULC was transformed among the
classes due to the expansion in residential, commercial and industrial
areas as well as political decisions. In the study, results showed that
agricultural lands around the settlement areas transformed to
residential areas in 30 years.
The LST images showed that mean temperatures were ranged
between 26-32°C in 1984 and 27-33°C in 2014. Minimum
temperature of agricultural lands was increased 3°C and reached to
23°C. In contrast, maximum temperature of A class decreased to
41°C from 44°C. Considering temperatures of the 2014 R-B class and
1984 status of same areas, it was seen that mean, min and max
temperatures increased by 2°C.
As a result, the dynamism of population, LULC and LST resulted
in increasing mean and maximum surface temperatures, living
spaces/industrial areas and agricultural lands.