Energy Consumption Forecast Procedure for an Industrial Facility

Year: 2015 Volume: 9 Issue: 12 4211 - 4214 Pages

• Authors:
• Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova
• Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov
• Olga Valerevna Kolesnikova
• Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova

Abstract: We regard forecasting of energy consumption by private production areas of a large industrial facility as well as by the facility itself. As for production areas, the forecast is made based on empirical dependencies of the specific energy consumption and the production output. As for the facility itself, implementation of the task to minimize the energy consumption forecasting error is based on adjustment of the facility’s actual energy consumption values evaluated with the metering device and the total design energy consumption of separate production areas of the facility. The suggested procedure of optimal energy consumption was tested based on the actual data of core product output and energy consumption by a group of workshops and power plants of the large iron and steel facility. Test results show that implementation of this procedure gives the mean accuracy of energy consumption forecasting for winter 2014 of 0.11% for the group of workshops and 0.137% for the power plants.

• Keywords:
• Energy consumption
• energy consumption forecasting error
• energy efficiency
• forecasting accuracy
• forecasting.

A Method of Effective Planning and Control of Industrial Facility Energy Consumption

Year: 2015 Volume: 9 Issue: 12 2421 - 2425 Pages

• Authors:
• Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova
• Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov
• Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova

Abstract: A method of effective planning and control of industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows optimally arranging the management and full control of complex production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.

• Keywords:
• Energy consumption
• energy efficiency
• energy management system
• forecasting model
• power efficiency characteristics.