Abstract: This article presents a monitoring indicators system
that predicts whether a local government in Taiwan is heading for
fiscal distress and identifies a suitable fiscal policy that would allow
the local government to achieve fiscal balance in the long run. This
system is relevant to stockholders’ interest, simple for national audit
bodies to use, and provides an early warning of fiscal distress that
allows preventative action to be taken.
Abstract: This paper develops the fiscal health index of 21 local
governments in Taiwan over the 1984 to 2010 period. A quantile
regression analysis was used to explore the extent that economic
variables, political budget cycles, and legislative checks and balances,
impact different quantiles of fiscal health index for a country over a
sample period of time. Our findings suggest that local governments at
the lower quantile are significantly benefited from political budget
cycles and the increase in central government revenues, while
legislative effective checks and balances and the increase in central
government expenditures have a significantly negative effect on local
fiscal health. When local governments are in the upper tail of the
distribution, legislative checks and balances and growth in
macroeconomics have significant and adverse effects on the fiscal
health of local governments. However, increases in central
government revenues have significant and positive effects on the
health status of local government in Taiwan.