Abstract: Up to this point business process management projects
in general and business process modelling projects in particular
could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to
estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase
is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further
phases of business process modelling starting with implementation
are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature.
This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost
estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely
software development or software engineering. Software development
is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After
the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and
validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from
COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of
effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this
we lay out similarities of the software development process and the
process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process
Management life-cycle.
Abstract: Estimation of model parameters is necessary to predict
the behavior of a system. Model parameters are estimated using
optimization criteria. Most algorithms use historical data to estimate
model parameters. The known target values (actual) and the output
produced by the model are compared. The differences between the
two form the basis to estimate the parameters. In order to compare
different models developed using the same data different criteria are
used. The data obtained for short scale projects are used here. We
consider software effort estimation problem using radial basis
function network. The accuracy comparison is made using various
existing criteria for one and two predictors. Then, we propose a new
criterion based on linear least squares for evaluation and compared
the results of one and two predictors. We have considered another
data set and evaluated prediction accuracy using the new criterion.
The new criterion is easy to comprehend compared to single statistic.
Although software effort estimation is considered, this method is
applicable for any modeling and prediction.
Abstract: Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.
Abstract: Execution of Business Software Systems (BSS) Development and Enhancement Projects (D&EP) is characterized by the exceptionally low effectiveness, leading to considerable financial losses. The general reason for low effectiveness of such projects is that they are inappropriately managed. One of the factors of proper BSS D&EP management is suitable (reliable and objective) method of project work effort estimation since this is what determines correct estimation of its major attributes: project cost and duration. BSS D&EP is usually considered to be accomplished effectively if product of a planned functionality is delivered without cost and time overrun. The goal of this paper is to prove that choosing approach to the BSS D&EP work effort estimation has a considerable influence on the effectiveness of such projects execution.
Abstract: Accurate software cost estimates are critical to both
developers and customers. They can be used for generating request
for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring and
control. The exact relationship between the attributes of the effort
estimation is difficult to establish. A neural network is good at
discovering relationships and pattern in the data. So, in this paper a
comparative analysis among existing Halstead Model, Walston-Felix
Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model and Neural Network
Based Model is performed. Neural Network has outperformed the
other considered models. Hence, we proposed Neural Network
system as a soft computing approach to model the effort estimation
of the software systems.
Abstract: Software project effort estimation is frequently seen
as complex and expensive for individual software engineers.
Software production is in a crisis. It suffers from excessive costs.
Software production is often out of control. It has been suggested that
software production is out of control because we do not measure.
You cannot control what you cannot measure. During last decade, a
number of researches on cost estimation have been conducted. The
metric-set selection has a vital role in software cost estimation
studies; its importance has been ignored especially in neural network
based studies. In this study we have explored the reasons of those
disappointing results and implemented different neural network
models using augmented new metrics. The results obtained are
compared with previous studies using traditional metrics. To be able
to make comparisons, two types of data have been used. The first
part of the data is taken from the Constructive Cost Model
(COCOMO'81) which is commonly used in previous studies and the
second part is collected according to new metrics in a leading
international company in Turkey. The accuracy of the selected
metrics and the data samples are verified using statistical techniques.
The model presented here is based on Multi-Layer Perceptron
(MLP). Another difficulty associated with the cost estimation studies
is the fact that the data collection requires time and care. To make a
more thorough use of the samples collected, k-fold, cross validation
method is also implemented. It is concluded that, as long as an
accurate and quantifiable set of metrics are defined and measured
correctly, neural networks can be applied in software cost estimation
studies with success
Abstract: Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.
Abstract: The Canadian aerospace industry faces many
challenges. One of them is the difficulty in estimating costs. In
particular, the design effort required in a project impacts resource
requirements and lead-time, and consequently the final cost. This
paper presents the findings of a case study conducted for recognized
global leader in the design and manufacturing of aircraft engines. The
study models parametric cost estimation relationships to estimate the
design effort of integrated blade-rotor low-pressure compressor fans.
Several effort drivers are selected to model the relationship.
Comparative analyses of three types of models are conducted. The
model with the best accuracy and significance in design estimation is
retained.
Abstract: Software effort estimation is the process of predicting
the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain
software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort
estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans,
budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix,
Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used
to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical
Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are
experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The
performances of the developed models were tested on NASA
software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead,
Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based
models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF
Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model
shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid
Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for
the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.
Abstract: Majority of Business Software Systems (BSS)
Development and Enhancement Projects (D&EP) fail to meet criteria
of their effectiveness, what leads to the considerable financial losses.
One of the fundamental reasons for such projects- exceptionally low
success rate are improperly derived estimates for their costs and time.
In the case of BSS D&EP these attributes are determined by the work
effort, meanwhile reliable and objective effort estimation still appears
to be a great challenge to the software engineering. Thus this paper is
aimed at presenting the most important synthetic conclusions coming
from the author-s own studies concerning the main factors of
effective BSS D&EP work effort estimation. Thanks to the rational
investment decisions made on the basis of reliable and objective
criteria it is possible to reduce losses caused not only by abandoned
projects but also by large scale of overrunning the time and costs of
BSS D&EP execution.
Abstract: An effort estimation model is needed for softwareintensive
projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or
some combination of the two, as well as high level software
solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition
techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system
and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it
examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability
factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With
using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a
system development effort estimation model which takes functional
complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as
input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.