Abstract: Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.
Abstract: It is widely recognised that the assets portfolio development is helping to enhance economic growth, productivity and competitiveness. While numerous studies and reports certify the positive effect of investments in large infrastructure investments on the local economy, still, the methodology to estimate the contribution in economic development is a challenging issue for researchers and economists. The key question is how to estimate those economic impacts in each economic system. This paper provides a compact and applicable methodological framework providing quantitative results in terms of the overall jobs and income generated into the project life cycle. According to a deterministic mathematical approach, the key variables and the modelling framework are presented. The numerical case study highlights key results for a new motorway project in Greece, which is experienced economic stress for many years, providing the opportunity for comparisons with similar cases.
Abstract: Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.
Abstract: Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in
developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding
population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of
cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational
message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in
the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms
of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the
equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are
established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically
stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of
backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore,
numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show
the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that
combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera
in the population.
Abstract: We present a deterministic model which describes
the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the
vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where
the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly-observed
treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact
of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people
among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to
prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis,
is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently
infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from
higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is
recommended.
Abstract: Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).
Abstract: Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.
Abstract: In this work, we consider a deterministic model for
the transmission of leptospirosis which is currently spreading in the
Thai population. The SIR model which incorporates the features of
this disease is applied to the epidemiological data in Thailand. It is
seen that the numerical solutions of the SIR equations are in good
agreement with real empirical data. Further improvements are
discussed.
Abstract: We constructed a method of noise reduction for
JPEG-compressed image based on Bayesian inference using the
maximizer of the posterior marginal (MPM) estimate. In this method,
we tried the MPM estimate using two kinds of likelihood, both of
which enhance grayscale images converted into the JPEG-compressed
image through the lossy JPEG image compression. One is the
deterministic model of the likelihood and the other is the probabilistic
one expressed by the Gaussian distribution. Then, using the Monte
Carlo simulation for grayscale images, such as the 256-grayscale
standard image “Lena" with 256 × 256 pixels, we examined the
performance of the MPM estimate based on the performance measure
using the mean square error. We clarified that the MPM estimate via
the Gaussian probabilistic model of the likelihood is effective for
reducing noises, such as the blocking artifacts and the mosquito noise,
if we set parameters appropriately. On the other hand, we found that
the MPM estimate via the deterministic model of the likelihood is not
effective for noise reduction due to the low acceptance ratio of the
Metropolis algorithm.