Abstract: Influence diagrams (IDs) are one of the most commonly used graphical decision models for reasoning under uncertainty. The quantification of IDs which consists in defining conditional probabilities for chance nodes and utility functions for value nodes is not always obvious. In fact, decision makers cannot always provide exact numerical values and in some cases, it is more easier for them to specify qualitative preference orders. This work proposes an adaptation of standard IDs to the qualitative framework based on possibility theory.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable
model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The
paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of
customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of
neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities
of predicting customer churn.
Abstract: Heuristics-based search methodologies normally
work on searching a problem space of possible solutions toward
finding a “satisfactory" solution based on “hints" estimated from the
problem-specific knowledge. Research communities use different
types of methodologies. Unfortunately, most of the times, these hints
are immature and can lead toward hindering these methodologies by
a premature convergence. This is due to a decrease of diversity in
search space that leads to a total implosion and ultimately fitness
stagnation of the population. In this paper, a novel Decision Maturity
framework (DMF) is introduced as a solution to this problem. The
framework simply improves the decision on the direction of the
search by materializing hints enough before using them. Ideas from
this framework are injected into the particle swarm optimization
methodology. Results were obtained under both static and dynamic
environment. The results show that decision maturity prevents
premature converges to a high degree.
Abstract: Social, mobility and information aggregation inside
business environment need to converge to reach the next step of
collaboration to enhance interaction and innovation. The following
article is based on the “Assemblage" concept seen as a framework to
formalize new user interfaces and applications. The area of research
is the Energy Social Business Environment, especially the Energy
Smart Grids, which are considered as functional and technical
foundations of the revolution of the Energy Sector of tomorrow. The
assemblages are modelized by means of mereology and simplicial
complexes. Its objective is to offer new central attention and
decision-making tools to end-users.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a new learning algorithm for
anomaly based network intrusion detection using improved self
adaptive naïve Bayesian tree (NBTree), which induces a hybrid of
decision tree and naïve Bayesian classifier. The proposed approach
scales up the balance detections for different attack types and keeps
the false positives at acceptable level in intrusion detection. In
complex and dynamic large intrusion detection dataset, the detection
accuracy of naïve Bayesian classifier does not scale up as well as
decision tree. It has been successfully tested in other problem
domains that naïve Bayesian tree improves the classification rates in
large dataset. In naïve Bayesian tree nodes contain and split as
regular decision-trees, but the leaves contain naïve Bayesian
classifiers. The experimental results on KDD99 benchmark network
intrusion detection dataset demonstrate that this new approach scales
up the detection rates for different attack types and reduces false
positives in network intrusion detection.
Abstract: H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement
in coding efficiency compared to other compression standards such
as MPEG-2, but computational complexity is increased significantly.
In this paper, we propose selective mode decision schemes for fast
intra prediction mode selection. The objective is to reduce the
computational complexity of the H.264/AVC encoder without
significant rate-distortion performance degradation. In our proposed
schemes, the intra prediction complexity is reduced by limiting the
luma and chroma prediction modes using the directional information
of the 16×16 prediction mode. Experimental results are presented to
show that the proposed schemes reduce the complexity by up to 78%
maintaining the similar PSNR quality with about 1.46% bit rate
increase in average.
Abstract: Construction projects can be implemented under various contractual and organizational systems. They can be divided into two groups: systems without the managing company where the Client manages the process, and systems with the managing company, where management is entrusted to an external company. In the public sector of the Polish market there are two ways of delivery of construction projects with the participation of the manager: one is to assign operations to another party, the so called Project Supervisor, whilst the other results from the application of FIDIC conditions of contract, which entail appointment of the Engineer. The decision is to be made by the Client and depends on various factors. On the public procurement market in Poland the selection of construction project manager boils down to awarding the contract for such a service. The selection can be done by one of eight public procurement procedures identified by the procurement law. The paper provides the analysis of 96 contracts for services awarded in 2011, which employed construction management. The study aimed to investigate the methods and criteria for selecting managers, applied in practice by the Polish public Clients.
Abstract: Recently, the issue of machine condition monitoring
and fault diagnosis as a part of maintenance system became global
due to the potential advantages to be gained from reduced
maintenance costs, improved productivity and increased machine
availability. The aim of this work is to investigate the effectiveness
of a new fault diagnosis method based on power spectral density
(PSD) of vibration signals in combination with decision trees and
fuzzy inference system (FIS). To this end, a series of studies was
conducted on an external gear hydraulic pump. After a test under
normal condition, a number of different machine defect conditions
were introduced for three working levels of pump speed (1000, 1500,
and 2000 rpm), corresponding to (i) Journal-bearing with inner face
wear (BIFW), (ii) Gear with tooth face wear (GTFW), and (iii)
Journal-bearing with inner face wear plus Gear with tooth face wear
(B&GW). The features of PSD values of vibration signal were
extracted using descriptive statistical parameters. J48 algorithm is
used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from
data set. The output of J48 algorithm was employed to produce the
crisp if-then rule and membership function sets. The structure of FIS
classifier was then defined based on the crisp sets. In order to
evaluate the proposed PSD-J48-FIS model, the data sets obtained
from vibration signals of the pump were used. Results showed that
the total classification accuracy for 1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm
conditions were 96.42%, 100%, and 96.42% respectively. The results
indicate that the combined PSD-J48-FIS model has the potential for
fault diagnosis of hydraulic pumps.
Abstract: Establishing pumping stations is one of the most common ways of providing water from rivers. There are many issues involved in the design and operation of pumping stations most important of which is the problem of sedimentation. One of the significant issues which must be taken into consideration in designing pumping stations is the operation method and technical matters related to it. Safety and convenience of operation is one of the issues that must be always considered by the designer. Some of the major issues in making decisions regarding the type of design for the station are geographical condition, the location of the station and availability of experts in maintenance and operation of the station. Dimensions of the station must allow free movement for checking and operating pumps after installation of pumps and plumbing system.
Abstract: A novel biologically inspired controller for the autonomous
navigation of a mobile robot in an evasion task is
proposed. The controller takes advantage of the environment by
calculating a measure of danger and subsequently choosing the
parameters of a reinforcement learning based decision process.
Two different reinforcement learning algorithms were used: Qlearning
and Sarsa (λ). Simulations show that selecting dynamic
parameters reduce the time while executing the decision making
process, so the robot can obtain a policy to succeed in an escaping
task in a realistic time.
Abstract: An attempt has been made several times to identify
and discuss the U.S. experience on the formation of political nation in
political science. The purpose of this research paper is to identify the
main aspects of the formation of civic identity in the United States
and Kazakhstan, through the identification of similarities and
differences that can get practical application in making decisions of
national policy issues in the context of globalization, as well as to
answer the questions “What should unite the citizens of Kazakhstan
to the nation?" and “What should be the dominant identity: civil or
ethnic (national) one?"
Can Kazakhstan being multiethnic country like America, adopt its
experience in the formation of a civic nation? Since it is believed that
the “multi-ethnic state of the population is a characteristic feature of
most modern countries in the world," it states that “inter-ethnic
integration is one of the most important aspects of the problem of
forming a new social community (metaetnic - Kazakh people,
Kazakh nation" [1].
Abstract: One of the vital developmental tasks that an
individual faces during adolescence is choosing a career. Arriving at
a career decision is difficult and anxious for many adolescents in the
tertiary level. The main purpose of this study is to determine the
factors relating to career indecision among freshmen college students
as basis for the formulation of a comprehensive career counseling
program for the psychological well-being of freshmen university
students. The subjects were purposively selected. The Slovin-s
formula was used in determining the sample size, using a 0.05
margin of error in getting the total number of samples per college and
per major. The researcher made use of descriptive correlational study
in determining significant factors relating to career indecision.
Multiple Regression Analysis indicated that career thoughts, career
decisions and vocational identity as factors related to career
indecision.
Abstract: This paper explores the knowledge and attitude of
women and men in decision making on pap smear screening. This
qualitative study recruited 52 respondents with 44 women and 8 men,
using the purposive sampling with snowballing technique through indepth
interviews. This study demonstrates several key findings:
Female respondents have better knowledge compared to male. Most
of the women perceived that pap smear screening is beneficial and
important, but to proceed with the test is still doubtful. Male
respondents were supportive in terms of sending their spouses to the
health facilities or give more freedom to their wives to choose and
making decision on their own health due to prominent reason that
women know best on their own health. It is expected that the results
from this study will provide useful guideline for healthcare providers
to prepare any action/intervention to provide an extensive education
to improve people-s knowledge and attitude towards pap smear.
Abstract: The fuzzy technique is an operator introduced in order
to simulate at a mathematical level the compensatory behavior in
process of decision making or subjective evaluation. The following
paper introduces such operators on hand of computer vision
application.
In this paper a novel method based on fuzzy logic reasoning
strategy is proposed for edge detection in digital images without
determining the threshold value. The proposed approach begins by
segmenting the images into regions using floating 3x3 binary matrix.
The edge pixels are mapped to a range of values distinct from each
other. The robustness of the proposed method results for different
captured images are compared to those obtained with the linear Sobel
operator. It is gave a permanent effect in the lines smoothness and
straightness for the straight lines and good roundness for the curved
lines. In the same time the corners get sharper and can be defined
easily.
Abstract: The problem of Small Area Estimation (SAE) is complex because of various information sources and insufficient data. In this paper, an approach for SAE is presented for decision-making at national, regional and local level. We propose an Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) as an estimator in order to combine several information sources to evaluate various indicators. First, we present the urban audit project and its environmental, social and economic indicators. Secondly, we propose an approach for decision making in order to estimate indicators. An application is used to validate the theoretical proposal. Finally, a decision support system is presented based on open-source environment.
Abstract: It has been always observed that the effectiveness of
MIS as a support tool for management decisions degenerate after
time of implementation, despite the substantial investments being
made. This is true for organizations at the initial stages of MIS
implementations, manual or computerized. A survey of a sample of
middle to top managers in business and government institutions was
made. A large ratio indicates that the MIS has lost its impact on the
day-to-day operations, and even the response lag time expands
sometimes indefinitely. The data indicates an infant mortality
phenomenon of the bathtub model. Reasons may be monotonous
nature of MIS delivery, irrelevance, irreverence, timeliness, and lack
of adequate detail. All those reasons collaborate to create a degree of
degeneracy. We investigate and model as a bathtub model the
phenomenon of MIS degeneracy that inflicts the MIS systems and
renders it ineffective. A degeneracy index is developed to identify
the status of the MIS system and possible remedies to prevent the
onset of total collapse of the system to the point of being useless.
Abstract: The goal of this work is to describe a new algorithm for finding the optimal variable order, number of nodes for any order and other ROBDD parameters, based on a tabular method. The tabular method makes use of a pre-built backend database table that stores the ROBDD size for selected combinations of min-terms. The user uses the backend table and the proposed algorithm to find the necessary ROBDD parameters, such as best variable order, number of nodes etc. Experimental results on benchmarks are given for this technique.
Abstract: Natural ventilation has played an important role for
many low energy-building designs. It has been also noticed as a
essential subject to persistently bring the fresh cool air from the
outside into a building. This study carried out the computational fluid
dynamics (CFD)-based simulations to examine the natural ventilation
development of a work area in a public building. The simulated results
can be useful to better understand the indoor microclimate and the
interaction of wind with buildings. Besides, this CFD simulation
procedure can serve as an effective analysis tool to characterize the
airing performance, and thereby optimize the building ventilation for
strengthening the architects, planners and other decision makers on
improving the natural ventilation design of public buildings.
Abstract: Computer-based decision support (CDSS) systems can
deliver real patient care and increase chances of long-term survival in
areas of chronic disease management prone to poor control. One such
CDSS, for the management of warfarin, is described in this paper and
the outcomes shown. Data is derived from the running system and
show a performance consistently around 20% better than the
applicable guidelines.
Abstract: This paper presents a formalisation of the different existing code mutation techniques (polymorphism and metamorphism) by means of formal grammars. While very few theoretical results are known about the detection complexity of viral mutation techniques, we exhaustively address this critical issue by considering the Chomsky classification of formal grammars. This enables us to determine which family of code mutation techniques are likely to be detected or on the contrary are bound to remain undetected. As an illustration we then present, on a formal basis, a proof-of-concept metamorphic mutation engine denoted PB MOT, whose detection has been proven to be undecidable.