Abstract: In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile
function model that can be used for estimating conditional
distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead
out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we
forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity
of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply
as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the
model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010.
We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for
the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually
observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model.
The results show that the new model can capture the main features
of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with
improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We
hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the
potential to be very useful in practice.
Abstract: A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various
universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in
the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack
of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such
hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which
increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a
view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing
in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project
funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution
from Department For International Development (DFID)] and
currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya
and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector
via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of
credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market.
Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests
were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian
healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund
significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of
private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had
a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%).
The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very
poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers
(437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two
years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include
private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact
and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the
programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an
extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better
address the issues raised in the study.
Abstract: In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by
employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme
value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the
Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets
of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and
non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis
is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the
return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the
simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with
an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of
both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but
with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the
tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there
is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The
results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental
research.
Abstract: The current tools for real time management of sewer
systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather
forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first
ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of
the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of
their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that
the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by
approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that
"hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a
large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds)
allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real
time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system
where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where
the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different
return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary
from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then
used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the
subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this
new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained
gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment
and of 65 % in the number of discharges.
Abstract: Water resource systems modeling has constantly been
a challenge through history for human beings. As the innovative
methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences
on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and
larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding
increased water demands, climate change and human interventions,
socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and
sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has
been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using
mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration
is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from
demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other
related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing
several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model
results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a
rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized
parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with
the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced
inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match
between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected
hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was
determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage
in the reduced inflow scenario.
Abstract: The objective of this study was to evaluate the
effects of calving season on the production and economic efficiency
of dairy farms in Egypt. Our study was performed at dairy
production farms in the Alexandria, Behera, and Kafr El-Sheikh
provinces of Egypt from summer 2010 to winter 2013. The
randomly selected dairy farms had herds consisting of Baladi,
Holstein-Friesian, or cross-bred (Baladi × Holstein-Friesian) cows.
The data were collected from production records and responses to a
structured questionnaire. The average total return differed
significantly (P < 0.05) between the different cattle breeds and
calving seasons. The average total return was highest for the
Holstein- Friesian cows that calved in the winter (29106.42
EGP/cow/year), and it was lowest for Baladi cows that calved in the
summer (12489.79 EGP/cow/year). Differences in total returns
between the cows that calved in the winter or summer or between
the foreign and native breeds, as well as variations in calf prices,
might have contributed to the differences in milk yield. The average
net profit per cow differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the cattle
breeds and calving seasons. The average net profit values for the
Baladi cows that calved in the winter or summer were 2413 and
2994.96 EGP/cow/year, respectively, and those for the Holstein-
Friesian cows were 10744.17 and 7860.56 EGP/cow/year,
respectively, whereas those for the cross-bred cows were 10174.86
and 7571.33 EGP/cow/year, respectively. The variations in net profit
might have resulted from variation in the availability or price of feed
materials, milk prices, or sales volumes. Our results show that the
breed and calving season of dairy cows significantly affected the
economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. The cows that calved
in the winter produced more milk than those that calved in the
summer, which may have been the result of seasonal influences,
such as temperature, humidity, management practices, and the type
of feed or green fodder available.
Abstract: A compact Ultra Wide Band (UWB) antenna with coplanar
waveguide feed has been designed and results are verified in
this paper. The antenna has been designed on FR4 substrate with
dielectric constant (εr) of 4.4 and dimensions of 32mm x 26mm x
0.8mm. The presented antenna shows return loss characteristics in the
band of 3.1 to 10.6 GHz as prescribed by FCC, USA. Parametric
studies have been done and results thus obtained have been
presented. Simulated results have been verified on Rohde & Swartz
VNA. The measured results are in good agreement with simulated
results which make the presented antenna suitable to be used for
wearable applications. Performance analysis of antenna has also been
shown in the presence of three layered Human Arm model. Results
obtained in presence of Human Arm model has been compared with
that in free space.
Abstract: The microstrip antennas area has seen some inventive
work in recent years and is now one of the most dynamic fields of
antenna theory. A novel and simple wideband monopole antenna is
presented printed on a single dielectric substrate which is fed by a 50
ohm microstrip line having a low-profile antenna structure with two
parallel s-shaped meandered line of same size. This antenna is fed by
a coaxial feeding tube. In this research, S–form microstrip patch antenna is designed from
measuring the prototypes of the proposed antenna one available
bands with 10db return loss bandwidths of about GPS application
(GPS L2 1490 MHz) and covering the 1400 to 1580 MHz frequency
band at 1.5 GHz, the simulated results for main parameters such as
return loss, impedance bandwidth, radiation patterns, and gains are
also discussed herein. The modeling study shows that such antennas,
in simplicity design and supply, can satisfy GPS application. Two
parallel slots are incorporated to disturb the surface flow path,
introducing local inductive effect. This antenna is fed by a coaxial
feeding tube.
Abstract: The design of Reverse logistics Network has attracted
growing attention with the stringent pressures from both
environmental awareness and business sustainability. Reverse
logistical activities include return, remanufacture, disassemble and
dispose of products can be quite complex to manage. In addition,
demand can be difficult to predict, and decision making is one of the
challenges task in such network. This complexity has amplified the
need to develop an integrated architecture for product return as an
enterprise system. The main purpose of this paper is to design Multi
Agent System (MAS) architecture using the Prometheus
methodology to efficiently manage reverse logistics processes. The
proposed MAS architecture includes five types of agents: Gate
keeping Agent, Collection Agent, Sorting Agent, Processing Agent
and Disposal Agent which act respectively during the five steps of
reverse logistics Network.
Abstract: This study examines the feasibility of indirect solar
desalination in oil producing countries in the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) region. It relies on value engineering (VE) and costbenefit
with sensitivity analyses to identify optimal coupling
configurations of desalination and solar energy technologies. A
comparative return on investment was assessed as a function of water
costs for varied plant capacities (25,000 to 75,000 m3/day), project
lifetimes (15 to 25 years), and discount rates (5 to 15%) taking into
consideration water and energy subsidies, land cost as well as
environmental externalities in the form of carbon credit related to
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. The results showed
reverse osmosis (RO) coupled with photovoltaic technologies (PVs)
as the most promising configuration, robust across different prices for
Brent oil, discount rates, as well as different project lifetimes.
Environmental externalities and subsidies analysis revealed that a
16% reduction in existing subsidy on water tariffs would ensure
economic viability. Additionally, while land costs affect investment
attractiveness, the viability of RO coupled with PV remains possible
for a land purchase cost
Abstract: Mass media campaigns against obesity are often
designed to impact large audiences. This usually means that their
audience is defined based on general demographic characteristics like
age, gender, occupation etc., not taking into account psychographics
like behavior, motivations, wants, etc. Using psychographics, as the
base for the audience segmentation, is a common practice in case of
successful campaigns, as it allows developing more relevant
messages. It also serves a purpose of identifying key segments, those
that generate the best return on investment. For a health campaign,
that would be segments that have the best chance of being converted
into healthy lifestyle at the lowest cost. This paper presents the
limitations of the demographic targeting, based on the findings from
the reception study of IMSS (Mexican Social Security Institute) antiobesity
TV commercials and proposes mothers as the first level of
segmentation, in the process of identifying the key segment for these
campaigns.
Abstract: Here, we study the characteristic feature of
conventional (ON-OFF keying) and soliton based transmission
system. We consider 20Gbps transmission system implemented with
Conventional Single Mode Fiber (C-SMF) to examine the role of
Gaussian pulse which is the characteristic of conventional
propagation and Hyperbolic-secant pulse which is the characteristic
of soliton propagation in it. We note the influence of these pulses
with respect to different dispersion lengths and soliton period in
conventional and soliton system respectively and evaluate the system
performance in terms of Quality factor. From the analysis, we could
prove that the soliton pulse has the consistent performance even for
long distance without dispersion compensation than the conventional
system as it is robust to dispersion. For the length of transmission of
200Km, soliton system yielded Q of 33.958 while the conventional
system totally exhausted with Q=0.
Abstract: An efficient remanufacturing network lead to an
efficient design of sustainable manufacturing enterprise. In
remanufacturing network, products are collected from the customer
zone, disassembled and remanufactured at a suitable remanufacturing
facility. In this respect, another issue to consider is how the returned
product to be remanufactured, in other words, what is the best layout
for such facility. In order to achieve a sustainable manufacturing
system, Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS) designs are highly
recommended, CMSs combine high throughput rates of line layouts
with the flexibility offered by functional layouts (job shop).
Introducing the CMS while designing a remanufacturing network will
benefit the utilization of such a network. This paper presents and
analyzes a comprehensive mathematical model for the design of
Dynamic Cellular Remanufacturing Systems (DCRSs). In this paper,
the proposed model is the first one to date that considers CMS and
remanufacturing system simultaneously. The proposed DCRS model
considers several manufacturing attributes such as multi period
production planning, dynamic system reconfiguration, duplicate
machines, machine capacity, available time for workers, worker
assignments, and machine procurement, where the demand is totally
satisfied from a returned product. A numerical example is presented
to illustrate the proposed model.
Abstract: Availability of different genetic tests after completion
of Human Genome Project increases the physicians’ responsibility to
keep themselves update on the potential implementation of these
genetic tests in their daily practice. However, due to numbers of
barriers, still many of physicians are not either aware of these tests or
are not willing to offer or refer their patients for genetic tests. This
study was conducted an anonymous, cross-sectional, mailed-based
survey to develop a primary data of Malaysian physicians’ level of
knowledge and perception of gene profiling. Questionnaire had 29
questions. Total scores on selected questions were used to assess the
level of knowledge. The highest possible score was 11. Descriptive
statistics, one way ANOVA and chi-squared test was used for
statistical analysis. Sixty three completed questionnaires were
returned by 27 general practitioners (GPs) and 36 medical specialists.
Responders’ age ranges from 24 to 55 years old (mean 30.2 ± 6.4).
About 40% of the participants rated themselves as having poor level
of knowledge in genetics in general whilst 60% believed that they
have fair level of knowledge; however, almost half (46%) of the
respondents felt that they were not knowledgeable about available
genetic tests. A majority (94%) of the responders were not aware of
any lab or company which is offering gene profiling services in
Malaysia. Only 4% of participants were aware of using gene profiling
for detection of dosage of some drugs. Respondents perceived greater
utility of gene profiling for breast cancer (38%) compared to the
colorectal familial cancer (3%). The score of knowledge ranged from
2 to 8 (mean 4.38 ± 1.67). Non- significant differences between score
of knowledge of GPs and specialists were observed, with score of
4.19 and 4.58 respectively. There was no significant association
between any demographic factors and level of knowledge. However,
those who graduated between years 2001 to 2005 had higher level of
knowledge. Overall, 83% of participants showed relatively high level
of perception on value of gene profiling to detect patient’s risk of
disease. However, low perception was observed for both statements
of using gene profiling for general population in order to alter their
lifestyle (25%) as well as having the full sequence of a patient
genome for the purpose of determining a patient’s best match for
treatment (18%). The lack of clinical guidelines, limited provider
knowledge and awareness, lack of time and resources to educate
patients, lack of evidence-based clinical information and cost of tests
were the most barriers of ordering gene profiling mentioned by
physicians. In conclusion Malaysian physicians who participate in
this study had mediocre level of knowledge and awareness in gene
profiling. The low exposure to the genetic questions and problems
might be a key predictor of lack of awareness and knowledge on
available genetic tests. Educational and training workshop might be useful in helping Malaysian physicians incorporate genetic profiling
into practice for eligible patients.
Abstract: This exploratory study gives an overview of the
evolution of the main financial and performance indicators of the
Academic Spin-Off’s and High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s in year
3 and year 6 after its creation in the region of Catalonia in Spain. The
study compares and evaluates results of these different measures of
performance and the degree of success of these companies for each
University.
We found that the average Catalonian Academic Spin-Off is small
and have not achieved the sustainability stage at year 6. On the
contrary, a small group of High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s
exhibits robust performance with high profits in year 6. Our results
support the need to increase selectivity and support for these
companies especially near year 3, because are the ones that will bring
wealth and employment. University role as an investor has rigid
norms and habits that impede an efficient economic return from their
ASO investment.
Universities with high performance on sales and employment in
year 3 not always could sustain this growth in year 6 because their
ASO’s are not profitable. On the contrary, profitable ASO exhibit
superior performance in all measurement indicators in year 6. We
advocate the need of a balanced growth (with profits) as a way to
obtain subsequent continuous growth.
Abstract: Essential oils have a significant antimicrobial activity.
These oils can successfully replace the antibiotics. So, the
microorganisms show their inefficiencies resistant for the antibiotics.
For this reason, we study the physicochemical analysis and
antimicrobial activity of the essential oil of Daucus carota. The
extraction is done by steam distillation of water which brought us a
very significant return of 4.65%. The analysis of the essential oil is
performed by GC / MS and has allowed us to identify 32 compounds
in the oil of D. carota flowering tops of Bouira. Three of which are in
the majority are the α-Pinene (22.3%), the carotol (21.7%) and the
limonene (15.8%).
Abstract: An innovative concept called “Flexy-Energy” is developing at 2iE. This concept aims to produce electricity at lower cost by smartly mix different available energy sources in accordance to the load profile of the region. With a higher solar irradiation and due to the fact that Diesel generator are massively used in sub-Saharan rural areas, PV/Diesel hybrid systems could be a good application of this concept and a good solution to electrify this region, provided they are reliable, cost effective and economically attractive to investors. Presentation of the developed approach is the aims of this paper. The PV/Diesel hybrid system designed consists to produce electricity and/or heat from a coupling between Diesel Diesel generators and PV panels without batteries storage, while ensuring the substitution of gasoil by bio-fuels available in the area where the system will be installed. The optimal design of this system is based on his technical performances; the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Levelized Cost of Energy are developed and use as economic criteria. The Net Present Value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the discounted payback (DPB) are also evaluated according to dual electricity pricing (in sunny and unsunny hours). The PV/Diesel hybrid system obtained is compared to the standalone Diesel Diesel generators. The approach carried out in this paper has been applied to Siby village in Mali (Latitude 12 ° 23'N 8 ° 20'W) with 295 kWh as daily demand.This approach provides optimal physical characteristics (size of the components, number of component) and dynamical characteristics in real time (number of Diesel generator on, their load rate, fuel specific consumptions, and PV penetration rate) of the system. The system obtained is slightly cost effective; but could be improved with optimized tariffing strategies.
Abstract: Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall
occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been
largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many
other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the
present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme
Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology
for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data
recorded in Oujda (Morocco).
The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT)
approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u.
In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object
included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal
dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions
of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by
Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the
appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the
introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation
results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.
Abstract: This paper argues nation-building theories that
prioritize democratic governance best explain the successful postindependence
development of Botswana. Three main competing
schools of thought exist regarding the sequencing of policies that
should occur to re-build weakened or failed states. The first posits
that economic development should receive foremost attention, while
democratization and a binding sense of nationalism can wait. A
second group of experts identified constructing a sense of nationalism
among a populace is necessary first, so that the state receives popular
legitimacy and obedience that are prerequisites for development.
Botswana, though, transitioned into a multi-party democracy and
prosperous open economy due to the utilization of traditional
democratic structures, enlightened and accountable leadership, and an
educated technocratic civil service. With these political foundations
already in place when the discovery of diamonds occurred, the
resulting revenues were spent wisely on projects that grew the
economy, improved basic living standards, and attracted foreign
investment. Thus democratization preceded, and therefore provided
an accountable basis for, economic development that might otherwise
have been squandered by greedy and isolated elites to the detriment
of the greater population. Botswana was one of the poorest nations in
the world at the time of its independence in 1966, with little
infrastructure, a dependence on apartheid South Africa for trade, and
a largely subsistence economy. Over the next thirty years, though, its
economy grew the fastest of any nation in the world. The transparent
and judicious use of diamond returns is only a partial explanation, as
the government also pursued economic diversification, mass
education, and rural development in response to public needs.
As nation-building has become a project undertaken by nations
and multilateral agencies such as the United Nations and the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization, Botswana may provide best practices
that others should follow in attempting to reconstruct economically
and politically unstable states.
Abstract: The building sector is responsible, in many
industrialized countries, for about 40% of the total energy
requirements, so it seems necessary to devote some efforts in this
area in order to achieve a significant reduction of energy
consumption and of greenhouse gases emissions.
The paper presents a study aiming at providing a design
methodology able to identify the best configuration of the system
building/plant, from a technical, economic and environmentally point
of view.
Normally, the classical approach involves a building's energy
loads analysis under steady state conditions, and subsequent selection
of measures aimed at improving the energy performance, based on
previous experience made by architects and engineers in the design
team. Instead, the proposed approach uses a sequence of two wellknown
scientifically validated calculation methods (TRNSYS and
RETScreen), that allow quite a detailed feasibility analysis.
To assess the validity of the calculation model, an existing,
historical building in Central Italy, that will be the object of
restoration and preservative redevelopment, was selected as a casestudy.
The building is made of a basement and three floors, with a
total floor area of about 3,000 square meters.
The first step has been the determination of the heating and
cooling energy loads of the building in a dynamic regime by means,
which allows simulating the real energy needs of the building in
function of its use. Traditional methodologies, based as they are on
steady-state conditions, cannot faithfully reproduce the effects of
varying climatic conditions and of inertial properties of the structure.
With this model is possible to obtain quite accurate and reliable
results that allow identifying effective combinations building-HVAC
system.
The second step has consisted of using output data obtained as
input to the calculation model, which enables to compare different
system configurations from the energy, environmental and financial
point of view, with an analysis of investment, and operation and
maintenance costs, so allowing determining the economic benefit of
possible interventions.
The classical methodology often leads to the choice of
conventional plant systems, while our calculation model provides a
financial-economic assessment for innovative energy systems and
low environmental impact.
Computational analysis can help in the design phase, particularly
in the case of complex structures with centralized plant systems, by
comparing the data returned by the calculation model for different
design options.