Abstract: One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is
agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most
important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is
rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in
agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR)
provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output
relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the
other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall
prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the
polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are
compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model
(MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on
MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.
Abstract: In the paper an effective context based lossless coding
technique is presented. Three principal and few auxiliary contexts are
defined. The predictor adaptation technique is an improved CoBALP
algorithm, denoted CoBALP+. Cumulated predictor error combining
8 bias estimators is calculated. It is shown experimentally that
indeed, the new technique is time-effective while it outperforms the
well known methods having reasonable time complexity, and is
inferior only to extremely computationally complex ones.
Abstract: In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.
Abstract: In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.
Abstract: Because of high ductility, aluminum alloys, have been widely used as an important base of metal forming industries. But the main week point of these alloys is their low strength so in forming them with conventional methods like deep drawing, hydro forming, etc have been always faced with problems like fracture during of forming process. Because of this, recently using of explosive forming method for forming of these plates has been recommended. In this paper free explosive forming of A2024 aluminum alloy is numerically simulated and during it, explosion wave propagation process is studied. Consequences of this simulation can be effective in prediction of quality of production. These consequences are compared with an experimental test and show the superiority of this method to similar methods like hydro forming and deep drawing.
Abstract: Group contribution methods such as the UNIFAC are
very useful to researchers and engineers involved in synthesis,
feasibility studies, design and optimization of separation processes.
They can be applied successfully to predict phase equilibrium and
excess properties in the development of chemical and separation
processes. The main focus of this work was to investigate the
possibility of absorbing selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
into polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) using three selected UNIFAC
group contribution methods. Absorption followed by subsequent
stripping is the predominant available abatement technology of
VOCs from flue gases prior to their release into the atmosphere. The
original, modified and effective UNIFAC models were used in this
work. The thirteen selected VOCs that have been considered in this
research are: pentane, hexane, heptanes, trimethylamine, toluene,
xylene, cyclohexane, butyl acetate, diethyl acetate, chloroform,
acetone, ethyl methyl ketone and isobutyl methyl ketone. The
computation was done for solute VOC concentration of 8.55x10-8
which is well in the infinite dilution region. The results obtained in
this study compare very well with those published in literature
obtained through both measurements and predictions. The phase
equilibrium obtained in this study show that PDMS is a good
absorbent for the removal of VOCs from contaminated air streams
through physical absorption.
Abstract: Springback is a significant problem in the sheet metal
forming process. When the tools are released after the stage of
forming, the product springs out, because of the action of the internal
stresses. In many cases the deviation of form is too large and the
compensation of the springback is necessary. The precise prediction
of the springback of product is increasingly significant for the design
of the tools and for compensation because of the higher ratio of the
yield stress to the elastic modulus.
The main object in this paper was to study the effect of the
anisotropy on the springback for three directions of rolling: 0°, 45°
and 90°. At the same time, we highlighted the influence of three
different metallic materials: Aluminum, Steel and Galvanized steel.
The original of our purpose consist on tests which are ensured by
adapting a U-type stretching-bending device on a tensile testing
machine, where we studied and quantified the variation of the
springback according to the direction of rolling. We also showed the
role of lubrication in the reduction of the springback.
Moreover, in this work, we have studied important characteristics
in deep drawing process which is a springback. We have presented
defaults that are showed in this process and many parameters
influenced a springback.
Finally, our results works lead us to understand the influence of
grains orientation with different metallic materials on the springback
and drawing some conclusions how to concept deep drawing tools. In
addition, the conducted work represents a fundamental contribution
in the discussion the industry application.
Abstract: Multi-Radio Multi-Channel Wireless Mesh Networks (MRMC-WMNs) operate at the backbone to access and route high volumes of traffic simultaneously. Such roles demand high network capacity, and long “online" time at the expense of accelerated transmission energy depletion and poor connectivity. This is the problem of transmission power control. Numerous power control methods for wireless networks are in literature. However, contributions towards MRMC configurations still face many challenges worth considering. In this paper, an energy-efficient power selection protocol called PMMUP is suggested at the Link-Layer. This protocol first divides the MRMC-WMN into a set of unified channel graphs (UCGs). A UCG consists of multiple radios interconnected to each other via a common wireless channel. In each UCG, a stochastic linear quadratic cost function is formulated. Each user minimizes this cost function consisting of trade-off between the size of unification states and the control action. Unification state variables come from independent UCGs and higher layers of the protocol stack. The PMMUP coordinates power optimizations at the network interface cards (NICs) of wireless mesh routers. The proposed PMMUP based algorithm converges fast analytically with a linear rate. Performance evaluations through simulations confirm the efficacy of the proposed dynamic power control.
Abstract: An attempt has been made to investigate the
machinability of zirconia toughened alumina (ZTA) inserts while
turning AISI 4340 steel. The insert was prepared by powder
metallurgy process route and the machining experiments were
performed based on Response Surface Methodology (RSM) design
called Central Composite Design (CCD). The mathematical model of
flank wear, cutting force and surface roughness have been developed
using second order regression analysis. The adequacy of model has
been carried out based on Analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques.
It can be concluded that cutting speed and feed rate are the two most
influential factor for flank wear and cutting force prediction. For
surface roughness determination, the cutting speed & depth of cut
both have significant contribution. Key parameters effect on each
response has also been presented in graphical contours for choosing
the operating parameter preciously. 83% desirability level has been
achieved using this optimized condition.
Abstract: the aim of that work is to study the proton transfer
phenomenon which takes place in the elastic scattering of 12C on 11B
at energies near the coulomb barrier. This reaction was studied at four
different energies 16, 18, 22, 24 MeV. The experimental data of the
angular distribution at these energies were compared to the
calculation prediction using the optical potential codes such as
ECIS88 and SPIVAL. For the raising in the cross section at backward
angles due to the transfer process we could use Distorted Wave Born
Approximation (DWUCK5). Our analysis showed that SPIVAL code
with l-dependent imaginary potential could be used effectively.
Abstract: The presence of chemical bonding between functionalized carbon nanotubes and matrix in carbon nanotube reinforced composites is modeled by elastic beam elements representing covalent bonding characteristics. Neglecting other reinforcing mechanisms in the composite such as relatively weak interatomic Van der Waals forces, this model shows close results to the Rule of Mixtures model-s prediction for effective Young-s modulus of a Representative Volume Element of composite for small volume fractions (~1%) and high aspect ratios (L/D>200) of CNTs.
Abstract: This paper aims at numerically analysing the effect
of an active flow control (AFC) by a vortex generator jet (VGJ)
submerged in a boundary layer via Chimera Grids and Detached-
Eddy Simulation (DES). The performance of DES results are
judged against Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and
compared with the experiments that showed an unsteady vortex
motion downstream of VGJ. Experimental results showed that
the mechanism of embedding logitudinal vortex structure in the
main stream flow is quite effective in increasing the near wall
momentum of separated aircraft wing. In order to simulate such
a flow configuration together with the VGJ, an efficient numerical
approach is required. This requirement is fulfilled by performing
the DES simulation over the flat plate using the DLR TAU Code.
The DES predictions identify the vortex region via smooth hybrid
length scale and predict the unsteady vortex motion observed in
the experiments. The DES results also showed that the sufficient
grid refinement in the vortex region resolves the turbulent scales
downstream of the VGJ, the spatial vortex core postion and nondimensional
momentum coefficient RVx .
Abstract: The morphological short-term evolution of Ponta do Tubarão Island (PTI) was investigated through high accurate surveys based on post-processed kinematic (PPK) relative positioning on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). PTI is part of a barrier island system on a high energy northeast Brazilian coastal environment and also an area of high environmental sensitivity. Surveys were carried out quarterly over a two years period from May 2010 to May 2012. This paper assesses statically the performance of digital elevation models (DEM) derived from different interpolation methods to represent morphologic features and to quantify volumetric changes and TIN models shown the best results to that purposes. The MDE allowed quantifying surfaces and volumes in detail as well as identifying the most vulnerable segments of the PTI to erosion and/or accumulation of sediments and relate the alterations to climate conditions. The coastal setting and geometry of PTI protects a significant mangrove ecosystem and some oil and gas facilities installed in the vicinities from damaging effects of strong oceanwaves and currents. Thus, the maintenance of PTI is extremely required but the prediction of its longevity is uncertain because results indicate an irregularity of sedimentary balance and a substantial decline in sediment supply to this coastal area.
Abstract: Chatter vibration has been a troublesome problem
for a machine tool toward the high precision and high speed machining.
Essentially, the machining performance is determined by the dynamic
characteristics of the machine tool structure and dynamics of cutting
process, which can further be identified in terms of the stability lobe
diagram. Therefore, realization on the machine tool dynamic behavior
can help to enhance the cutting stability. To assess the dynamic
characteristics and machining stability of a vertical milling system
under the influence of a linear guide, this study developed a finite
element model integrated the modeling of linear components with the
implementation of contact stiffness at the rolling interface. Both the
finite element simulations and experimental measurements reveal that
the linear guide with different preload greatly affects the vibration
behavior and milling stability of the vertical column spindle head
system, which also clearly indicate that the predictions of the
machining stability agree well with the cutting tests. It is believed that
the proposed model can be successfully applied to evaluate the
dynamics performance of machine tool systems of various
configurations.
Abstract: Hierarchical classification is a problem with applications in many areas as protein function prediction where the dates are hierarchically structured. Therefore, it is necessary the development of algorithms able to induce hierarchical classification models. This paper presents experimenters using the algorithm for hierarchical classification called Multi-label Hierarchical Classification using a Competitive Neural Network (MHC-CNN). It was tested in ten datasets the Gene Ontology (GO) Cellular Component Domain. The results are compared with the Clus-HMC and Clus-HSC using the hF-Measure.
Abstract: Protein-protein interactions (PPI) play a crucial role in many biological processes such as cell signalling, transcription, translation, replication, signal transduction, and drug targeting, etc. Structural information about protein-protein interaction is essential for understanding the molecular mechanisms of these processes. Structures of protein-protein complexes are still difficult to obtain by biophysical methods such as NMR and X-ray crystallography, and therefore protein-protein docking computation is considered an important approach for understanding protein-protein interactions. However, reliable prediction of the protein-protein complexes is still under way. In the past decades, several grid-based docking algorithms based on the Katchalski-Katzir scoring scheme were developed, e.g., FTDock, ZDOCK, HADDOCK, RosettaDock, HEX, etc. However, the success rate of protein-protein docking prediction is still far from ideal. In this work, we first propose a more practical measure for evaluating the success of protein-protein docking predictions,the rate of first success (RFS), which is similar to the concept of mean first passage time (MFPT). Accordingly, we have assessed the ZDOCK bound and unbound benchmarks 2.0 and 3.0. We also createda new benchmark set for protein-protein docking predictions, in which the complexes have experimentally determined binding affinity data. We performed free energy calculation based on the solution of non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation (nlPBE) to improve the binding mode prediction. We used the well-studied thebarnase-barstarsystem to validate the parameters for free energy calculations. Besides,thenlPBE-based free energy calculations were conducted for the badly predicted cases by ZDOCK and ZRANK. We found that direct molecular mechanics energetics cannot be used to discriminate the native binding pose from the decoys.Our results indicate that nlPBE-based calculations appeared to be one of the promising approaches for improving the success rate of binding pose predictions.
Abstract: Combined therapy using Interferon and Ribavirin is the standard treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C. However, the number of responders to this treatment is low, whereas its cost and side effects are high. Therefore, there is a clear need to predict patient’s response to the treatment based on clinical information to protect the patients from the bad drawbacks, Intolerable side effects and waste of money. Different machine learning techniques have been developed to fulfill this purpose. From these techniques are Associative Classification (AC) and Decision Tree (DT). The aim of this research is to compare the performance of these two techniques in the prediction of virological response to the standard treatment of HCV from clinical information. 200 patients treated with Interferon and Ribavirin; were analyzed using AC and DT. 150 cases had been used to train the classifiers and 50 cases had been used to test the classifiers. The experiment results showed that the two techniques had given acceptable results however the best accuracy for the AC reached 92% whereas for DT reached 80%.
Abstract: The Constraints imposed by non-thermal
leptogenesis on the survival of the neutrino mass models describing
the presently available neutrino mass patterns, are studied
numerically. We consider the Majorana CP violating phases coming
from right-handed Majorana mass matrices to estimate the baryon
asymmetry of the universe, for different neutrino mass models
namely quasi-degenerate, inverted hierarchical and normal
hierarchical models, with tribimaximal mixings. Considering two
possible diagonal forms of Dirac neutrino mass matrix as either
charged lepton or up-quark mass matrix, the heavy right-handed
mass matrices are constructed from the light neutrino mass matrix.
Only the normal hierarchical model leads to the best predictions of
baryon asymmetry of the universe, consistent with observations in
non-thermal leptogenesis scenario.
Abstract: In order to enhance the aircraft survivability, the
infrared signatures emitted by hot engine parts should be determined
exactly. For its reduction it is necessary for the rear fuselage
temperature to be decreased. In this study, numerical modeling of flow
fields and heat transfer characteristics of an aircraft nozzle is
performed and its temperature distribution along each component wall
is predicted. The radiation shield is expected to reduce the skin
temperature of rear fuselage. The effect of material characteristic of
radiation shield on the heat transfer is also investigated. Through this
numerical analysis, design parameters related to the susceptibility of
aircraft are examined.
Abstract: Fault-proneness of a software module is the
probability that the module contains faults. A correlation exists
between the fault-proneness of the software and the measurable
attributes of the code (i.e. the static metrics) and of the testing (i.e.
the dynamic metrics). Early detection of fault-prone software
components enables verification experts to concentrate their time and
resources on the problem areas of the software system under
development. This paper introduces Genetic Algorithm based
software fault prediction models with Object-Oriented metrics. The
contribution of this paper is that it has used Metric values of JEdit
open source software for generation of the rules for the classification
of software modules in the categories of Faulty and non faulty
modules and thereafter empirically validation is performed. The
results shows that Genetic algorithm approach can be used for
finding the fault proneness in object oriented software components.