Abstract: In this work we evaluate the possibility of predicting
the emotional state of a person based on the EEG. We investigate
the problem of classifying valence from EEG signals during
the presentation of affective pictures, utilizing the "frontal EEG
asymmetry" phenomenon. To distinguish positive and negative
emotions, we applied the Common Spatial Patterns algorithm.
In contrast to our expectations, the affective pictures did not
reliably elicit changes in frontal asymmetry. The classifying task
thereby becomes very hard as reflected by the poor classifier
performance. We suspect that the masking of the source of the
brain activity related to emotions, coming mostly from deeper
structures in the brain, and the insufficient emotional engagement
are among main reasons why it is difficult to predict the emotional
state of a person.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to estimate realistic
principal extrusion process parameters by means of artificial neural
network. Conventionally, finite element analysis is used to derive
process parameters. However, the finite element analysis of the
extrusion model does not consider the manufacturing process
constraints in its modeling. Therefore, the process parameters
obtained through such an analysis remains highly theoretical.
Alternatively, process development in industrial extrusion is to a
great extent based on trial and error and often involves full-size
experiments, which are both expensive and time-consuming. The
artificial neural network-based estimation of the extrusion process
parameters prior to plant execution helps to make the actual extrusion
operation more efficient because more realistic parameters may be
obtained. And so, it bridges the gap between simulation and real
manufacturing execution system. In this work, a suitable neural
network is designed which is trained using an appropriate learning
algorithm. The network so trained is used to predict the
manufacturing process parameters.
Abstract: The present study focuses on the discussion over the
parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is
applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction
of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows
that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN.
When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of
water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water
turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than
the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to
select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons
in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.
Abstract: Distant-talking voice-based HCI system suffers from
performance degradation due to mismatch between the acoustic
speech (runtime) and the acoustic model (training). Mismatch is
caused by the change in the power of the speech signal as observed at
the microphones. This change is greatly influenced by the change in
distance, affecting speech dynamics inside the room before reaching
the microphones. Moreover, as the speech signal is reflected, its
acoustical characteristic is also altered by the room properties. In
general, power mismatch due to distance is a complex problem. This
paper presents a novel approach in dealing with distance-induced
mismatch by intelligently sensing instantaneous voice power variation
and compensating model parameters. First, the distant-talking speech
signal is processed through microphone array processing, and the
corresponding distance information is extracted. Distance-sensitive
Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), pre-trained to capture both
speech power and room property are used to predict the optimal
distance of the speech source. Consequently, pre-computed statistic
priors corresponding to the optimal distance is selected to correct
the statistics of the generic model which was frozen during training.
Thus, model combinatorics are post-conditioned to match the power
of instantaneous speech acoustics at runtime. This results to an
improved likelihood in predicting the correct speech command at
farther distances. We experiment using real data recorded inside two
rooms. Experimental evaluation shows voice recognition performance
using our method is more robust to the change in distance compared
to the conventional approach. In our experiment, under the most
acoustically challenging environment (i.e., Room 2: 2.5 meters), our
method achieved 24.2% improvement in recognition performance
against the best-performing conventional method.
Abstract: This study comprehensively simulate the use of k-ε
model for predicting flow and heat transfer with measured flow field
data in a stationary duct with elucidates on the detailed physics
encountered in the fully developed flow region, and the sharp 180°
bend region. Among the major flow features predicted with accuracy
are flow transition at the entrance of the duct, the distribution of
mean and turbulent quantities in the developing, fully developed, and
sharp 180° bend, the development of secondary flows in the duct
cross-section and the sharp 180° bend, and heat transfer
augmentation. Turbulence intensities in the sharp 180° bend are
found to reach high values and local heat transfer comparisons show
that the heat transfer augmentation shifts towards the wall and along
the duct. Therefore, understanding of the unsteady heat transfer in
sharp 180° bends is important. The design and simulation are related
to concept of fluid mechanics, heat transfer and thermodynamics.
Simulation study has been conducted on the response of turbulent
flow in a rectangular duct in order to evaluate the heat transfer rate
along the small scale multiple rectangular duct
Abstract: The performance of a sucrose-based H2 production in
a completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) was modeled by neural
network back-propagation (BP) algorithm. The H2 production was
monitored over a period of 450 days at 35±1 ºC. The proposed model
predicts H2 production rates based on hydraulic retention time
(HRT), recycle ratio, sucrose concentration and degradation, biomass
concentrations, pH, alkalinity, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP),
acids and alcohols concentrations. Artificial neural networks (ANNs)
have an ability to capture non-linear information very efficiently. In
this study, a predictive controller was proposed for management and
operation of large scale H2-fermenting systems. The relevant control
strategies can be activated by this method. BP based ANNs modeling
results was very successful and an excellent match was obtained
between the measured and the predicted rates. The efficient H2
production and system control can be provided by predictive control
method combined with the robust BP based ANN modeling tool.
Abstract: In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: The aim of study was to evaluate pressure distribution characteristics of the elastic textile bandages using two instrumental techniques: a prototype Instrument and a load Transference. The prototype instrument which simulates shape of real leg has pressure sensors which measure bandage pressure. Using this instrument, the results show that elastic textile bandages presents different pressure distribution characteristics and none produces a uniform distribution around lower limb.
The load transference test procedure is used to determine whether a relationship exists between elastic textile bandage structure and pressure distribution characteristics. The test procedure assesses degree of load, directly transferred through a textile when loads series are applied to bandaging surface. A range of weave fabrics was produced using needle weaving machine and a sewing technique. A textile bandage was developed with optimal characteristics far superior pressure distribution than other bandages. From results, we find that theoretical pressure is not consistent exactly with practical pressure. It is important in this study to make a practical application for specialized nurses in order to verify the results and draw useful conclusions for predicting the use of this type of elastic band.
Abstract: This study applied the Theory of Planned Behavior
model in predicting dietary behavior among Type 2 diabetics in a
Kenyan environment. The study was conducted for three months
within the diabetic clinic at Kisii Hospital in Nyanza Province in
Kenya and adopted sequential mixed methods design combing both
qualitative and quantitative phases. Qualitative data was analyzed
using grounded theory analysis method. Structural equation modeling
using maximum likelihood was used to analyze quantitative data.
The results based on the common fit indices revealed that the theory
of planned behavior fitted the data acceptably well among the Type 2
diabetes and within dietary behavior {χ2 = 223.3, df = 77, p = .02,
χ2/df = 2.9, n=237; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039,
.146)}. This implies that the Theory of Planned Behavior holds and
forms a framework for promoting dietary practice among Type 2
diabetics.
Abstract: Study of soil properties like field capacity (F.C.) and permanent wilting point (P.W.P.) play important roles in study of soil moisture retention curve. Although these parameters can be measured directly, their measurement is difficult and expensive. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. In this investigation, 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. The data set was divided into two subsets for calibration (80%) and testing (20%) of the models and their normality were tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov method. Both multivariate regression and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques were employed to develop the appropriate PTFs for predicting soil parameters using easily measurable characteristics of clay, silt, O.C, S.P, B.D and CaCO3. The performance of the multivariate regression and ANN models was evaluated using an independent test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 were used. The comparison of RSME for two mentioned models showed that the ANN model gives better estimates of F.C and P.W.P than the multivariate regression model. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for F.C and P.W.P were (2.35, 0.77) and (2.83, 0.72), respectively. The corresponding values for multivariate regression model were (4.46, 0.68) and (5.21, 0.64), respectively. Results showed that ANN with five neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil properties than multivariate regression.
Abstract: The process for predicting the ballistic properties of a liquid rocket engine is based on the quantitative estimation of idealized performance deviations. In this aim, an equilibrium chemistry procedure is firstly developed and implemented in a Fortran routine. The thermodynamic formulation allows for the calculation of the theoretical performances of a rocket thrust chamber. In a second step, a computational fluid dynamic analysis of the turbulent reactive flow within the chamber is performed using a finite volume approach. The obtained values for the “quasi-real" performances account for both turbulent mixing and chemistryturbulence coupling. In the present work, emphasis is made on the combustion efficiency performance for which deviation is mainly due to radial gradients of static temperature and mixture ratio. Numerical values of the characteristic velocity are successfully compared with results from an industry-used code. The results are also confronted with the experimental data of a laboratory-scale rocket engine.
Abstract: NFκB activation plays a crucial role in anti-apoptotic responses in response to the apoptotic signaling during tumor necrosis factor (TNFa) stimulation in Multiple Myeloma (MM). Although several drugs have been found effective for the treatment of MM by mainly inhibiting NFκB pathway, there are no any quantitative or qualitative results of comparison assessment on inhibition effect between different single drugs or drug combinations. Computational modeling is becoming increasingly indispensable for applied biological research mainly because it can provide strong quantitative predicting power. In this study, a novel computational pathway modeling approach is employed to comparably assess the inhibition effects of specific single drugs and drug combinations on the NFκB pathway in MM, especially the prediction of synergistic drug combinations.
Abstract: A major requirement for Grid application developers is ensuring performance and scalability of their applications. Predicting the performance of an application demands understanding its specific features. This paper discusses performance modeling and prediction of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) applications on the Grid. An experiment conducted using a synthetic MABS workload explains the key features to be included in the performance model. The results obtained from the experiment show that the prediction model developed for the synthetic workload can be used as a guideline to understand to estimate the performance characteristics of real world simulation applications.
Abstract: This paper presents the results of a comprehensive
investigation of five blackouts that occurred on 28 August to 8
September 2011 due to bushing failures of the 132/33 kV, 125 MVA
transformers at JBB Ali Grid station. The investigation aims to
explore the root causes of the bushing failures and come up with
recommendations that help in rectifying the problem and avoiding the
reoccurrence of similar type of incidents. The incident reports about
the failed bushings and the SCADA reports at this grid station were
examined and analyzed. Moreover, comprehensive power quality
field measurements at ten 33/11 kV substations (S/Ss) in JBB Ali
area were conducted, and frequency scans were performed to verify
any harmonic resonance frequencies due to power factor correction
capacitors. Furthermore, the daily operations of the on-load tap
changers (OLTCs) of both the 125 MVA and 20 MVA transformers
at JBB Ali Grid station have been analyzed. The investigation
showed that the five bushing failures were due to a local problem, i.e.
internal degradation of the bushing insulation. This has been
confirmed by analyzing the time interval between successive OLTC
operations of the faulty grid transformers. It was also found that
monitoring the number of OLTC operations can help in predicting
bushing failure.
Abstract: A new observer based fault detection and diagnosis
scheme for predicting induction motors- faults is proposed in this
paper. Prediction of incipient faults, using different variants of
Kalman filter and their relative performance are evaluated. Only soft
faults are considered for this work. The data generation, filter
convergence issues, hypothesis testing and residue estimates are
addressed. Simulink model is used for data generation and various
types of faults are considered. A comparative assessment of the
estimates of different observers associated with these faults is
included.
Abstract: Salinity is a measure of the amount of salts in the
water. Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) as salinity parameter are often
determined using laborious and time consuming laboratory tests, but
it may be more appropriate and economical to develop a method
which uses a more simple soil salinity index. Because dissolved ions
increase salinity as well as conductivity, the two measures are
related. The aim of this research was determine of constant
coefficients for predicting of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) based on
Electrical Conductivity (EC) with Statistics of Correlation
coefficient, Root mean square error, Maximum error, Mean Bias
error, Mean absolute error, Relative error and Coefficient of residual
mass. For this purpose, two experimental areas (S1, S2) of Khuzestan
province-IRAN were selected and four treatments with three
replications by series of double rings were applied. The treatments
were included 25cm, 50cm, 75cm and 100cm water application. The
results showed the values 16.3 & 12.4 were the best constant
coefficients for predicting of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) based on
EC in Pilot S1 and S2 with correlation coefficient 0.977 & 0.997 and
191.1 & 106.1 Root mean square errors (RMSE) respectively.
Abstract: This paper presents the possibilities of using Weibull statistical distribution in modeling the distribution of defects in ERP systems. There follows a case study, which examines helpdesk records of defects that were reported as the result of one ERP subsystem upgrade. The result of the applied modeling is in modeling the reliability of the ERP system from a user perspective with estimated parameters like expected maximum number of defects in one day or predicted minimum of defects between two upgrades. Applied measurement-based analysis framework is proved to be suitable in predicting future states of the reliability of the observed ERP subsystems.
Abstract: A theoretical study of the rigidities of slabs with
circular voids oriented in the longitudinal and in the transverse
direction is discussed. Equations are presented for predicting the
bending and torsional rigidities of the voided slabs. This paper
summarizes the results of an extensive literature search and initial
review of the current methods of analyzing voided slab. The various
methods of calculating the equivalent plate parameters, which are
necessary for two-dimensional analysis, are also reviewed. Static
deflections on voided slabs are shown to be in good agreement with
proposed equation.
Abstract: Developing a stable early warning system (EWS)
model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging
task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method
which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the
aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN
performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in
our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a
consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods
which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural
network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The
analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic
indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method
with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other
methods.