Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Using Percentage Change as the Universe of Discourse

Since the pioneering work of Zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to a myriad of areas. Song and Chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series and applied some methods to the enrollments of the University of Alabama. In recent years, a number of techniques have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy set theory methods. These methods have either used enrollment numbers or differences of enrollments as the universe of discourse. We propose using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. In this communication, the approach of Jilani, Burney, and Ardil is modified by using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. We use enrollment figures for the University of Alabama to illustrate our proposed method. The proposed method results in better forecasting accuracy than existing models.

A Power-Controlled Scheduling Scheme Using a Directional Antenna in Smart Home

This paper proposes a power-controlled scheduling scheme for devices using a directional antenna in smart home. In the case of the home network using directional antenna, devices can concurrently transmit data in the same frequency band. Accordingly, the throughput increases compared to that of devices using omni-directional antenna in proportional to the number of concurrent transmissions. Also, the number of concurrent transmissions depends on the beamwidth of antenna, the number of devices operating in the network , transmission power, interference and so on. In particular, the less transmission power is used, the more concurrent transmissions occur due to small transmission range. In this paper, we considered sub-optimal scheduling scheme for throughput maximization and power consumption minimization. In the scheme, each device is equipped with a directional antenna. Various beamwidths, path loss components, and antenna radiation efficiencies are considered. Numerical results show that the proposed schemes outperform the scheduling scheme using directional antennas without power control.

Smart Motion

Austenite and Martensite indicate the phases of solids undergoing phase transformation which we usually associate with materials and not with living organisms. This article provides an overview of bacterial proteins and structures that are undergoing phase transformation and suggests its probable effect on mechanical behavior. The context is mainly within the role of phase transformations occurring in the flagellum of bacteria. The current knowledge of molecular mechanism leading to phase variation in living organisms is reviewed. Since in bacteria, each flagellum is driven by a separate motor, similarity to a Differential drive in case of four-wheeled vehicles is suggested. It also suggests the application of the mechanism in which bacteria changes its direction of movement to facilitate single point turning of a multi-wheeled vehicle. Finally, examples are presented to illustrate that the motion due to phase transformation of flagella in bacteria can start a whole new research on motion mechanisms.

Dynamic of Aggressive Behavior at the Context of Reflective Process

The paper which is dedicated to describing the effect made by the “significant other", presents the new model of interrelation between self-reflection, the “significant other" phenomenon and aggression. Tendencies of direction and type frustration response developments in detail are discussed. New results have been received through designing of the original experiment. It is based on modifications of the “Picture – Frustration Study" test by S. Rosenzweig.

Peer-to-Peer Epidemic Algorithms for Reliable Multicasting in Ad Hoc Networks

Characteristics of ad hoc networks and even their existence depend on the nodes forming them. Thus, services and applications designed for ad hoc networks should adapt to this dynamic and distributed environment. In particular, multicast algorithms having reliability and scalability requirements should abstain from centralized approaches. We aspire to define a reliable and scalable multicast protocol for ad hoc networks. Our target is to utilize epidemic techniques for this purpose. In this paper, we present a brief survey of epidemic algorithms for reliable multicasting in ad hoc networks, and describe formulations and analytical results for simple epidemics. Then, P2P anti-entropy algorithm for content distribution and our prototype simulation model are described together with our initial results demonstrating the behavior of the algorithm.

Productivity and Energy Management in Desert Urban

Growing world population has fundamental impacts and often catastrophic on natural habitat. The immethodical consumption of energy, destruction of the forests and extinction of plant and animal species are the consequence of this experience. Urban sustainability and sustainable urban development, that is so spoken these days, should be considered as a strategy, goal and policy, beyond just considering environmental issues and protection. The desert-s climate has made a bunch of problems for its residents. Very hot and dry climate in summers of the Iranian desert areas, when there was no access to modern energy source and mechanical cooling systems in the past, made Iranian architects to design a natural ventilation system in their buildings. The structure, like a tower going upward the roof, besides its ornamental application and giving a beautiful view to the building, was used as a spontaneous ventilation system. In this paper, it has been tried to name the problems of the area and it-s inconvenience, then some answers has pointed out in order to solve the problems and as an alternative solution BADGIR (wind-catcher) has been introduced as a solution knowing that it has been playing a major role in dealing with the problems.

Numerical Investigation of Baffle Effect on the Flow in a Rectangular Primary Sedimentation Tank

It is essential to have a uniform and calm flow field for a settling tank to have high performance. In general, the recirculation zones always occurred in sedimentation tanks. The presence of these regions may have different effects. The nonuniformity of the velocity field, the short-circuiting at the surface and the motion of the jet at the bed of the tank that occurs because of the recirculation in the sedimentation layer, are affected by the geometry of the tank. There are some ways to decrease the size of these dead zones, which would increase the performance. One of the ways is to use a suitable baffle configuration. In this study, the presence of baffle with different position has been investigated by a finite volume method, with VOF (Volume of Fluid) model. Besides, the k-ε turbulence model is used in the numerical calculations. The results indicate that the best position of the baffle is obtained when the volume of the recirculation region is minimized or is divided to smaller part and the flow field trend to be uniform in the settling zone.

Analyzing Periurban Fringe with Rough Set

The distinction among urban, periurban and rural areas represents a classical example of uncertainty in land classification. Satellite images, geostatistical analysis and all kinds of spatial data are very useful in urban sprawl studies, but it is important to define precise rules in combining great amounts of data to build complex knowledge about territory. Rough Set theory may be a useful method to employ in this field. It represents a different mathematical approach to uncertainty by capturing the indiscernibility. Two different phenomena can be indiscernible in some contexts and classified in the same way when combining available information about them. This approach has been applied in a case of study, comparing the results achieved with both Map Algebra technique and Spatial Rough Set. The study case area, Potenza Province, is particularly suitable for the application of this theory, because it includes 100 municipalities with different number of inhabitants and morphologic features.

Credit Risk Management and Analysis in an Iranian Bank

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

An Empirical Study of the Expectation- Perception Gap of I.S. Development

This paper adopts a notion of expectation-perception gap of systems users as information systems (IS) failure. Problems leading to the expectation-perception gap are identified and modelled as five interrelated discrepancies or gaps throughout the process of information systems development (ISD). It describes an empirical study on how systems developers and users perceive the size of each gap and the extent to which each problematic issue contributes to the gap. The key to achieving success in ISD is to keep the expectationperception gap closed by closing all 5 pertaining gaps. The gap model suggests that most factors in IS failure are related to organizational, cognitive and social aspects of information systems design. Organization requirement analysis, being the weakest link of IS development, is particularly worthy of investigation.

Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems

There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Improving TNT Curing Process by Using Infrared Camera

Among the chemicals used for ammunition production, TNT (Trinitrotoluene) play a significant role since World War I and II. Various types of military weapon utilize TNT in casting process. However, the TNT casting process for warhead is difficult to control the cooling rate of the liquid TNT. This problem occurs because the casting process lacks the equipment to detect the temperature during the casting procedure This study presents the temperature detected by infrared camera to illustrate the cooling rate and cooling zone of curing, and demonstrates the optimization of TNT condition to reduce the risk of air gap occurred in the warhead which can result in the destruction afterward. Premature initiation of explosive-filled projectiles in response to set-back forces during gunfiring cause by casting defects. Finally the study can help improving the process of the TNT casting. The operators can control the curing of TNT inside the case by rising up the heating rod at the proper time. Consequently this can reduce tremendous time of rework if the air gaps occur and increase strength to lower elastic modulus. Therefore, it can be clearly concluded that the use of Infrared Cameras in this process is another method to improve the casting procedure.

Multiclass Support Vector Machines for Environmental Sounds Classification Using log-Gabor Filters

In this paper we propose a robust environmental sound classification approach, based on spectrograms features driven from log-Gabor filters. This approach includes two methods. In the first methods, the spectrograms are passed through an appropriate log-Gabor filter banks and the outputs are averaged and underwent an optimal feature selection procedure based on a mutual information criteria. The second method uses the same steps but applied only to three patches extracted from each spectrogram. To investigate the accuracy of the proposed methods, we conduct experiments using a large database containing 10 environmental sound classes. The classification results based on Multiclass Support Vector Machines show that the second method is the most efficient with an average classification accuracy of 89.62 %.

Identifying Corruption in Legislation using Risk Analysis Methods

The objective of this article is to discuss the potential of economic analysis as a tool for identification and evaluation of corruption in legislative acts. We propose that corruption be perceived as a risk variable within the legislative process. Therefore we find it appropriate to employ risk analysis methods, used in various fields of economics, for the evaluation of corruption in legislation. Furthermore we propose the incorporation of these methods into the so called corruption impact assessment (CIA), the general framework for detection of corruption in legislative acts. The applications of the risk analysis methods are demonstrated on examples of implementation of proposed CIA in the Czech Republic.

Microwave Imaging by Application of Information Theory Criteria in MUSIC Algorithm

The performance of time-reversal MUSIC algorithm will be dramatically degrades in presence of strong noise and multiple scattering (i.e. when scatterers are close to each other). This is due to error in determining the number of scatterers. The present paper provides a new approach to alleviate such a problem using an information theoretic criterion referred as minimum description length (MDL). The merits of the novel approach are confirmed by the numerical examples. The results indicate the time-reversal MUSIC yields accurate estimate of the target locations with considerable noise and multiple scattering in the received signals.

Characterisation and Classification of Natural Transients

Monitoring lightning electromagnetic pulses (sferics) and other terrestrial as well as extraterrestrial transient radiation signals is of considerable interest for practical and theoretical purposes in astro- and geophysics as well as meteorology. Managing a continuous flow of data, automisation of the detection and classification process is important. Features based on a combination of wavelet and statistical methods proved efficient for analysis and characterisation of transients and as input into a radial basis function network that is trained to discriminate transients from pulse like to wave like.

Optimal Digital Pitch Aircraft Control

In this paper a controller for the pitch angle of an aircraft regarding to the elevator deflection angle is designed. The way how the elevator angle affects pitching motion of the aircraft is pointed out, as well as, how a pitch controller can be applied for the aircraft to reach certain pitch angle. In this digital optimal system, the elevator deflection angle and pitching angle of the plane are considered to be input and output respectively. A single input single output (SISO) system is presented. A digital pitch aircraft control is demonstrated. A simulation for the whole system has been performed. The optimal control weighting vectors, Q and R have been determined.

H∞ Approach to Functional Projective Synchronization for Chaotic Systems with Disturbances

This paper presents a method for functional projective H∞ synchronization problem of chaotic systems with external disturbance. Based on Lyapunov theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) formulation, the novel feedback controller is established to not only guarantee stable synchronization of both drive and response systems but also reduce the effect of external disturbance to an H∞ norm constraint.

An Optimal Load Shedding Approach for Distribution Networks with DGs considering Capacity Deficiency Modelling of Bulked Power Supply

This paper discusses a genetic algorithm (GA) based optimal load shedding that can apply for electrical distribution networks with and without dispersed generators (DG). Also, the proposed method has the ability for considering constant and variable capacity deficiency caused by unscheduled outages in the bulked generation and transmission system of bulked power supply. The genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search for the optimal load shedding strategy in distribution networks considering DGs in two cases of constant and variable modelling of bulked power supply of distribution networks. Electrical power distribution systems have a radial network and unidirectional power flows. With the advent of dispersed generations, the electrical distribution system has a locally looped network and bidirectional power flows. Therefore, installed DG in the electrical distribution systems can cause operational problems and impact on existing operational schemes. Introduction of DGs in electrical distribution systems has introduced many new issues in operational and planning level. Load shedding as one of operational issue has no exempt. The objective is to minimize the sum of curtailed load and also system losses within the frame-work of system operational and security constraints. The proposed method is tested on a radial distribution system with 33 load points for more practical applications.

Software Engineering Interoperable Environment for University Process Workflow and Document Management

The objective of the research was focused on the design, development and evaluation of a sustainable web based network system to be used as an interoperable environment for University process workflow and document management. In this manner the most of the process workflows in Universities can be entirely realized electronically and promote integrated University. Definition of the most used University process workflows enabled creating electronic workflows and their execution on standard workflow execution engines. Definition or reengineering of workflows provided increased work efficiency and helped in having standardized process through different faculties. The concept and the process definition as well as the solution applied as Case study are evaluated and findings are reported.