Abstract: This study conducts simulation analyses to find the
optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare
maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011
economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a debt/GDP
ratio of 0.2, increases in the debt/GDP ratio leads to increases in both
tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and
working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling
of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the debt/GDP ratio is greater than
40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.
Abstract: This study examines whether the Taiwan’s public debt is sustainable utilizing an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s public debt appears as a nonlinear series and is stationary in regime 1 but not in regime 2. This result implies that while Taiwan’s public debt was mostly sustainable over the 1996 to 2013 period examined in the study, it may no longer be sustainable in the most recent two years as the public debt ratio has increased cumulatively to 3.618%.