Abstract: The purpose of this study was primarily assessing how important economic factors namely: The Thai export price of white rice, the exchange rate, and the world rice consumption affect the overall Thai white rice export, using historical data during the period 1989-2013 from the Thai Rice Exporters Association, and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. The co-integration method, regression analysis, and error correction model were applied to investigate the econometric model. The findings indicated that in the long-run, the world rice consumption, the exchange rate, and the Thai export price of white rice were the important factors affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice respectively, as indicated by their significant coefficients. Meanwhile, the rice export price was an important factor affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice in the short-run. This information is useful in the business, export opportunities, price competitiveness, and policymaker in Thailand.
Abstract: A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of
wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system.
This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method
alternative to the common practice of developing a complete
conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the
sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach
obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the
underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms
but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the
historical data.
The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation
of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing
technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the
territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the
data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model
output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer
overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate
forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the
availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure
to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to
forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is
the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to
be quite poor.
Abstract: To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.
Abstract: This is an applied research to propose the method for
price quotation for a contract electronics manufacturer. It has had a
precise price quoting method but such method could not quickly
provide a result as the customer required. This reduces the ability of
company to compete in this kind of business. In this case, the cause
of long time quotation process was analyzed. A lot of product
features have been demanded by customer. By checking routine
processes, it was found that high fraction of quoting time was used
for production time estimating which has effected to the
manufacturing or production cost. Then the historical data of
products including types, number of components, assembling
method, and their assembling time were used to analyze the key
components affecting to production time. The price quoting model
then was proposed. The implementation of proposed model was able
to remarkably reduce quoting time with an acceptable required
precision.
Abstract: Public health surveillance system focuses on outbreak detection and data sources used. Variation or aberration in the frequency distribution of health data, compared to historical data is often used to detect outbreaks. It is important that new techniques be developed to improve the detection rate, thereby reducing wastage of resources in public health. Thus, the objective is to developed technique by applying frequent mining and outlier mining techniques in outbreak detection. 14 datasets from the UCI were tested on the proposed technique. The performance of the effectiveness for each technique was measured by t-test. The overall performance shows that DTK can be used to detect outlier within frequent dataset. In conclusion the outbreak detection technique using anomaly-based on frequent-outlier technique can be used to identify the outlier within frequent dataset.