Abstract: Various processes are modelled using a discrete phase,
where particles are seeded from a source. Such particles can represent
liquid water droplets, which are affecting the continuous phase by
exchanging thermal energy, momentum, species etc. Discrete phases
are typically modelled using parcel, which represents a collection of
particles, which share properties such as temperature, velocity etc.
When coupling the phases, the exchange rates are integrated over
the cell, in which the parcel is located. This can cause spikes and
fluctuating exchange rates. This paper presents an alternative method of coupling a discrete
and a continuous plug flow phase. This is done using triangular
parcels, which span between nodes following the dynamics of single
droplets. Thus, the triangular parcels are propagated using the corner
nodes. At each time step, the exchange rates are spatially integrated
over the surface of the triangular parcels, which yields a smooth
continuous exchange rate to the continuous phase. The results shows that the method is more stable, converges
slightly faster and yields smooth exchange rates compared with
the steam tube approach. However, the computational requirements
are about five times greater, so the applicability of the alternative
method should be limited to processes, where the exchange rates are
important. The overall balances of the exchanged properties did not
change significantly using the new approach.
Abstract: This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.
Abstract: In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to
quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and
forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then
predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts
contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models
at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those
obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally
weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting
methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in
point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric.
However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve
the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models.
We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever
possible.