Abstract: An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.
Abstract: Wireless sensor networks (WSNs), are constantly in demand to process information more rapidly with less energy and area cost. Presently, processor based solutions have difficult to achieve high processing speed with low-power consumption. This paper presents a simple and accurate data processing scheme for low power wireless sensor node, based on reduced number of processing element (PE). The presented model provides a simple recursive structure (SRS) to process the sampled data in the wireless sensor environment and to reduce the power consumption in wireless sensor node. Based on this model, to process the incoming samples and produce a smaller amount of data sufficient to reconstruct the original signal. The ModelSim simulator used to simulate SRS structure. Functional simulation is carried out for the validation of the presented architecture. Xilinx Power Estimator (XPE) tool is used to measure the power consumption. The experimental results show the average power consumption of 91 mW; this is 42% improvement compared to the folded tree architecture.
Abstract: Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.
Abstract: Stratified double median ranked set sampling (SDMRSS) method is suggested for estimating the population mean. The SDMRSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified simple random sampling (SSRS), and stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS). It is shown that SDMRSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than SRS, SSRS, and SRSS. Also, by SDMRSS, we can increase the efficiency of mean estimator for specific value of the sample size. SDMRSS is applied on real life examples, and the results of the example agreed the theoretical results.
Abstract: Within geostatistics research, effective estimation of
the variogram points has been examined, particularly in developing
robust alternatives. The parametric fit of these variogram points which
eventually defines the kriging weights, however, has not received
the same attention from a robust perspective. This paper proposes
the use of the non-linear Wilcoxon norm over weighted non-linear
least squares as a robust variogram fitting alternative. First, we
introduce the concept of variogram estimation and fitting. Then, as
an alternative to non-linear weighted least squares, we discuss the
non-linear Wilcoxon estimator. Next, the robustness properties of the
non-linear Wilcoxon are demonstrated using a contaminated spatial
data set. Finally, under simulated conditions, increasing levels of
contaminated spatial processes have their variograms points estimated
and fit. In the fitting of these variogram points, both non-linear
Weighted Least Squares and non-linear Wilcoxon fits are examined
for efficiency. At all levels of contamination (including 0%), using
a robust estimation and robust fitting procedure, the non-weighted
Wilcoxon outperforms weighted Least Squares.
Abstract: In order to have stable and high performance of direct torque and flux control (DTFC) of double star induction motor drive (DSIM), proper on-line adaptation of the stator resistance is very important. This is inevitably due to the variation of the stator resistance during operating conditions, which introduces error in estimated flux position and the magnitude of the stator flux. Error in the estimated stator flux deteriorates the performance of the DTFC drive. Also, the effect of error in estimation is very important especially at low speed. Due to this, our aim is to overcome the sensitivity of the DTFC to the stator resistance variation by proposing on-line fuzzy estimation stator resistance. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an on-line stator resistance correction through the variations of the stator current estimation error and its variations. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of the suggested algorithm control is to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situations and ensure the tracking of the actual stator resistance. The validity of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by the results.
Abstract: This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of
the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML),
Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML
estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is
considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator,
and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from
posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter
then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the
estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true
parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample
sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen
that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different
from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with
variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the
prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed
the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size
10 and 20.
Abstract: A repetitive training movement is an efficient method
to improve the ability and movement performance of stroke survivors
and help them to recover their lost motor function and acquire new
skills. The ETS-MARSE is seven degrees of freedom (DOF)
exoskeleton robot developed to be worn on the lateral side of the
right upper-extremity to assist and rehabilitate the patients with
upper-extremity dysfunction resulting from stroke. Practically,
rehabilitation activities are repetitive tasks, which make the
assistive/robotic systems to suffer from repetitive/periodic
uncertainties and external perturbations induced by the high-order
dynamic model (seven DOF) and interaction with human muscle
which impact on the tracking performance and even on the stability
of the exoskeleton. To ensure the robustness and the stability of the
robot, a new nonlinear backstepping control was implemented with
designed tests performed by healthy subjects. In order to limit and to
reject the periodic/repetitive disturbances, an iterative estimator was
integrated into the control of the system. The estimator does not need
the precise dynamic model of the exoskeleton. Experimental results
confirm the robustness and accuracy of the controller performance to
deal with the external perturbation, and the effectiveness of the
iterative estimator to reject the repetitive/periodic disturbances.
Abstract: Belt conveyors play an important role in continuous dry bulk material transport, especially at the mining industry. Speed control is expected to reduce the energy consumption of belt conveyors. Transient operation is the operation of increasing or decreasing conveyor speed for speed control. According to literature review, current research rarely takes the conveyor dynamics in transient operation into account. However, in belt conveyor speed control, the conveyor dynamic behaviors are significantly important since the poor dynamics might result in risks. In this paper, the potential risks in transient operation will be analyzed. An existing finite element model will be applied to build a conveyor model, and simulations will be carried out to analyze the conveyor dynamics. In order to realize the soft speed regulation, Harrison’s sinusoid acceleration profile will be applied, and Lodewijks estimator will be built to approximate the required acceleration time. A long inclined belt conveyor will be studied with two major simulations. The conveyor dynamics will be given.
Abstract: In this paper, we first construct a new state and disturbance estimator using discrete-time proportional plus integral observer to estimate the system state and the unknown external disturbance for the discrete-time system with an input-to-output direct-feedthrough term. Then, the generalized optimal linear quadratic digital tracker design is applied to construct a proportional plus integral observer-based tracker for the system with an unknown external disturbance to have a desired tracking performance. Finally, a numerical simulation is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new application of our proposed approach.
Abstract: Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.
Abstract: In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.
Abstract: A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design
is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct
access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The
measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem,
mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave,
given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S,
even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric
boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular
materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks,
is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the
gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using
a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of
the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry,
materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time
of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear
wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and
validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able
to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite
pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic
coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research
focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described
problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short
time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference.
This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and
allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological
security for human use.
Abstract: This research provides a technical account of
estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov
Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the
Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator
(MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition
Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on
actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated
demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS
epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data
and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous
model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS
mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our
results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models
(Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is
the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the
demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of
the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.
Abstract: The increase in electric power demand in face of
environmental issues has intensified the participation of renewable
energy sources such as photovoltaics, in the energy matrix of various
countries. Due to their operational characteristics, they can generate
time-varying harmonic and inter-harmonic distortions. For this
reason, the application of methods of measurement based on
traditional Fourier analysis, as proposed by IEC 61000-4-7, can
provide inaccurate results. Considering the aspects mentioned herein,
came the idea of the development of this work which aims to present
the results of a comparative evaluation between a methodology
arising from the combination of the Prony method with the Kalman
filter and another method based on the IEC 61000-4-30 and IEC
61000-4-7 standards. Employed in this study were synthetic signals
and data acquired through measurements in a 50kWp photovoltaic
installation.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose the variational EM inference
algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model
that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This
algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a
latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian
process classification model with multiclass. Our algorithm is based
on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM
framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and
maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian
formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior
distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each
observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process
classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived
posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum
likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix
necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two
steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies.
Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action
classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH
human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed
algorithm shows good performance on this data set.
Abstract: This paper presents a speed estimation scheme based
on second-order sliding-mode Super Twisting Algorithm (STA) and
Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) estimation theory for
Sensorless control of multiphase induction machine. A stator current
observer is designed based on the STA, which is utilized to take the
place of the reference voltage model of the standard MRAS
algorithm. The observer is insensitive to the variation of rotor
resistance and magnetizing inductance when the states arrive at the
sliding mode. Derivatives of rotor flux are obtained and designed as
the state of MRAS, thus eliminating the integration. Compared with
the first-order sliding-mode speed estimator, the proposed scheme
makes full use of the auxiliary sliding-mode surface, thus alleviating
the chattering behavior without increasing the complexity. Simulation
results show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed
scheme.
Abstract: Two normal populations with different means and same
variance are considered, where the variance is known. The population
with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are
constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally,
they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by
the mehod of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are
analysed with the help of graphs.
Abstract: This contribution presents a friction estimator for
industrial purposes which identifies Coulomb friction in a steering
system. The estimator only needs a few, usually known, steering
system parameters. Friction occurs on almost every mechanical
system and has a negative influence on high-precision position
control. This is demonstrated on a steering angle controller for highly
automated driving. In this steering system the friction induces limit
cycles which cause oscillating vehicle movement when the vehicle
follows a given reference trajectory. When compensating the friction
with the introduced estimator, limit cycles can be suppressed. This
is demonstrated by measurements in a series vehicle.
Abstract: The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic
behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The
study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward,
and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the
chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly
represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational
expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and
leads to more chaotic behavior.